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We actually have a nice stretch of a lot of cards in June/July at the moment with not many weekends without a card, nothing spectacular name value wise other than 213, but there should be a lot of value over the next few months

Conor vs Floyd on August 26th apparently

I mean obviously Conor is going to get humiliated and land no significant offense... but it would be awesome if that puncher's chance kicked in, if he somehow gets the 1% KO on Mayweather in his first boxing fight i'm going to mark out and obviously i'm going to watch even though the fight is ridiculous.

I just hope he comes back to MMA afterwards instead of retiring so that we can see all of the awesome fights he could potentially have defending the LW belt, it would be a travesty if we don't get to see him fight Khabib and Ferguson at least.

Okay I'm not a bettor of fights. Will there even be a line on Floyd here? How can they make it high enough to protect themselves? Connor is literally as close to 0% as you can be without being at 0% right?

It opened ridiculously close according to some people I follow on twitter (so take that for what its worth). You could get Floyd at -750.

This is the type of emotional fight that you can always find a few drunk suckers the night of to bet Mac straight up.

There will definitely be a line - whether it'll be a bettable one is another question.

Mayweather's at anything between -800 and -1250 right now: https://www.proboxingodds.com/events/2017-08-26-596

That's higher than, say, Rousey vs Correia (which was around -1500) and in the same ballpark as something like Mighty Mouse vs Tim Elliott.

A pile of people in a betting group i'm in on facebook are already loading up on Conor at +8xx which is obviously utterly ridiculous. I mean yes, Conor is live, for the first 30 seconds of the fight, to land a one punch KO on the greatest defensive boxer ever. After that he has basically no chance of landing any meaningful offense. A Floyd -11.5 point line or similar would be cool if it was available. If some square book offered that at -300 or whatever that'd be cool.

Floyd is -667 at one of my locals, I don't plan to tie up my balance there for several months but enough casual money will come on Conor that I wouldn't be shocked if it's still available on fight day and will obviously empty the balance on Floyd if it is (even though i'll be cheering for Conor). I guess I can hedge with Conor wins by r1 KO as that's literally the only way he has any chance of winning.

Pinny has -999/+672 with 3k limits right now

49-1

Floyd by decision as high as +130 on some Australian books... Floyd cruising to a decision win is easily the most likely outcome here, right? I'd be more worried about McGregor retiring from exhaustion than I would Mayweather knocking him out.

Conor could gas if he's getting dominated (which he will) and while he won't get knocked out cold, ref could easily stop it due to accumulation of strikes or a doctors stoppage. Obviously Conor isn't going to win by decision (or by any method if the fight reaches the second round) but either option's possible for Floyd and Conor probably has a 1-5% chance of knocking Floyd out in the first depending whether he's reached the age cliff where he loses a step

I'd say Floyd by TKO/doctor stoppage in the later rounds and by 120-108 are equally plausible. Conor should have a size and power advantage going for him which is nice and makes him live if he can end Floyd's night with a clean shot to the chin, but it really is an amateur boxer's puncher's chance against the GOAT in his weight class.

I hope Conor wins though. Would be amazing for MMA.

Are you serious about Conor R1 only or are you exaggerating and really mean the first 5 rounds? Seems he should be able to hang with Floyd for 5 rounds at least imo. If a washed up Del La Hoya can give Floyd problems I don't see why Conor can't too.

Are you saying that he won't even touch Floyd? Won't have the stamina to go for 5 x 3 min rounds?

His KO power is gone in 30 secs?

I meant after he's eaten a certain amount of shots he's going to probably either get tentative or knocked out. You're right it's hyperbole his power should last a few rounds

Kim out to +280 or so seems insane going to wait and see if any word leaks of an injury etc didn't fire yet but if he looks good at weigh ins and there's no word he's seriously injured I'll fire.

Backed Floyd at 1.2 seems a crazy good price in my opinion.
I think odds might get even better if when Conor starts giving interviews and doing promotion.

I just praise Allah that this fight is actually happening. This will be the biggest sporting event and PPV of 2017.

I bet Mayweather with a friend at 2.5:1 and then bet Conor on Bet365 @ +600 so really happy to freeroll for a profit on what is a volatile fight.

Conventional wisdom says Conor can only win in r1 however I think an interesting longshot play is Conor by decision. If Conor gets a KD early then that could put FM on his heels. Similarly no one thought Conor would decision Diaz the second time around.

Of course Conor really needs to fix his gas tank issues as he was previously gassing in r2 of MMA fights pretty consistently.

Floyd by KO is printing money. Floyd ML is drifting and the props will drift too in time. This will be a repeat of Floyd/Gatti except McGregor will be ten times more clueless and defenseless. McGregor has been raving and doing coke the last 6 months which counters any age Floyd could have lost.

My thoughts on this crazy bout: I could see Conor coming out hard and trying to KO Floyd in the first two or three rounds, putting the pressure on him and mostly missing then realizing he's getting tired and that it ain't gonna happen and then trying to save face by dancing around and playing defense the rest of the time in order to not get stopped. Floyd for his part, will push the pace a little in the middle rounds, but play it safe and not go for the kill either respecting Conor's power and knowing he is up on the cards anyway and probably cruise to a decision. He might get a late stoppage if Conor really gasses, but I would not be shocked to see it go the distance.

I like the over if it's set low and especially at + money. The over/under ended up at 9½, which is higher than I thought, but it is at +158 now on 5D and probably climbing. That being said, as an MMA fan I felt obligated to throw a few bucks on Conor in round 1 and Conor wins in round 1-3 both at big odds. Still considering the over 9½ as well.

Dwyer 17-6-15 Easy Bet On Mayweather v. McGregor -- Match Likely Won't Go Distance





Fascinating event, not so much for the actual event but that it is taking people that came from boxing, know boxing, know MMA.. And they gamble..



and then you see odds like Conor McGregor to be Knocked Down 4/6,

seriously?

And then Floyd Mayweather by KO / Tko / Dis @ 19/20

oh rly?



This reminds me of that statement phil galfond (poker player) made once when he was asked about how did you manage to work your way up in stakes (up to nose bleed).

He said, some times spots come along, like your playing and then a huge fish will come to the table, In that situation I would take a whole 3rd of my net worth (bank roll) and play, if I lost I lost, but in that spot I wanted to take advantage of it.

I will come back and post my bet, but I know right now roughly what I will be doing..

In a spot like this you have to go with the expected course of events.

I am a boxing Fan originally, as an event the betting side is hugely amusing to me,

like getting given those shopping carts and given 3 minutes to grab as much as you can from the store and you get to keep it.

Conor has three rounds to KO Floyd,


Just want to give the guys at guard your grill (boxing pod cast) a heads up, love their shows and passion for boxing.


06/14/2017 09:00 PM EDT
1:28:34- GYGB Boxing - Ward vs Kovalev 2 Preview / Mayweather McGregor Official

http://www.talkshoe.com/talkshoe/web...d=63796&cmd=tc

Don't mean to get out of line posting this here, but my home city of London (uk) recently experienced a crazy tower block fire, you might have caught it on the news.


If any one appreciates any thing I have ever said or tipped in this thread and want to put some thing back, you can do that, even if its £5 here:

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/grenfell

I would appreciate that very much
cheers guys!

I haven't had the time in quite a while to write up leans and stuff like Swoop does, but I will say that I'm glad I waited on betting the Singapore card as I really like the value and price on a few of these dogs and bet them all pretty big.

Kim +255 & +265
Asker +265 & +280
Saffiedine +220 & +230
Doane +105

even took a stab at Arlovski +210

I'm actually completely with Jim here, I made one big bet today and a few small bets and all 6 are on dogs and i'm on the same side of all of Jim's picks independently. No idea what was behind the big Covington move yesterday but I saw it's coming back so decided to get on Kim now and i'll add more if he's both healthy and price improves somehow

Might also add a few more late but this might be it as well.

Here's what I have

10u Dong Hyun 'Stun Gun' Kim +258

I think this fight is a coinflip and unless Kim has an undisclosed injury he should be way shorter. The only reason i'm not going bigger is because the early steam has been in the other direction - then again it was on Hunt and Maia too. Unless Convington's improved since the last few times we've seen him this is going to come down to who can win striking exchanges between two competent but not specialist strikers or who can get top position between two excellent grapplers. I'd have taken Kim at +150 for a regular sized bet, at +200 or better it has to be big. Not a lock obviously, but an amazing price on a fight i'm pretty confident Kim has a 40%+ chance to win.

3u Arlovski +200

He's still incredibly talented offensively on the feet, it's just that his chin is shot. Tybura is a big step down in competition compared to his current losing streak and while he's old, that matters less. Arlovski is actually a fav if it goes the distance if it's mostly contested standing due to his technical range striking and while he's clearly a dog due to his chin he's got reasonably good technical wrestling and excellent standup. Plus, it's HW and if Arlovski connects clean he wins because HW power. Good price imo he should be a smaller dog

3u Saffiedine +223

Should have taken this at +250. Big question marks on RDA moving up in weight and getting old, Saff has the slightly better technical striking and should be bigger, but will struggle if RDA can get inside and pressure him or take him down. I think RDA is about a 2 to 1 fav, so given he's +223 thats narrowly a bet. Plus it fits nicely with my theme of 'underdogs everywhere' on this card.

3u Asker +270

Another fight where I think the other guy is definitely the fav, but it's HW, neither guy is that good and they both have power. Walt Harris basically mostly beats weaker fighters and loses to UFC level guys. Asker is the same. Harris is definitely the better athlete but that's about it. I think Harris is probably only a 2-1 fav here as well, so seems like value. Lower level heavyweights + decent underdog seems like a good spot

3u Camacho +335

Camacho has had a decent run on the regional circuit and Li, while UFC caliber, is only really beating guys who aren't UFC caliber and this is a pretty decent price to fade a Chinese fighter even one of their better ones. Plus if we're doing MMAth, Camacho>Nakamura>Li. lol donkaments. But still, i'd take any regional guy with a decent record and at least one win over a guy i've heard of at +335 vs Li. Yeah, Li is the favourite, but is he really this big a fav?

2u Gomi +250

I wanted to be on Tuck here, but I also expected the line to open a lot closer here. Yes, Gomi is old and his chin is mostly gone, but he's a fan favourite and he is still a good striker even if he is WAY past his prime. Tuck should sub him a lot etc but I think Tuck just isn't good enough to be a -300 fav here, again I think it's closer to -200 although a lot depends on just how washed up Gomi is, even the Gomi who beat Vallie-Flagg 2 years ago is probably a small fav vs Tuck, yes he's declined by then but Tuck is a big step down in competition.

2u Doane +106

He's lost a few but to better guys than Kwak, just feels like he should be a small fav here and this is one I hadn't bet already, but was leaning that way and decided to pull the trigger on since Jim agreed with the side.

Unless Kim is hurt, I think he's by far the best play of the card though. Yes, he's 35 and yes, Covington is a legit prospect but Kim still wants it you can tell from his interviews and this is his last chance at a run to a title shot i'd assume and Covington is capable of making mistakes like he did against Warrley Alves and other than that he's been fighting lower level guys. Kim is a big test for him, one he'll pass about half the time, maybe even a shade over half the time if he's improving but there's no way Kim is +258 if he's healthy, no chance.

Just added Kim got 3.75.
Hedged some of my bet on Holm so now have her at an average of 1.26.

Not confident in much else but agree it looks like a card where underdogs are tempting.
Might throw up some bets on the exchanges in the morning at high prices and see if there are any takers.

Cyril Asker looked very out of shape at the weigh ins. I suppose he always does, but still, doesn't inspire a lot of confidence fighting against a guy who's a good enough athlete that he got an NBA tryout.

I don't understand this Kim pricing at all but I suppose you have to respect that there's obviously a lot of money coming in on Covington. Covington's a good prospect who trains at a great team, but he's not THAT good - the guy got choked out in the first round by Warlley Alves from a standing grappling position, and has fought a bunch of middling prospects at best. It's hard to see a scenario where Covington is more than a 60% favorite (at best), and yet that's not how this is being priced. Either way, I've bet the maximum that I'm comfortable risking on any one fight and there's always a chance that I'm just misreading Covington's skillset, so not going to bet any more on this.

Also I took a little Saffiedine at +240, think it's a +EV spot even though I expect him to lose the majority of the time.

I even like Ulka Sasaki at +435 against Justin Scoggins for four reasons. 1- Scoggins just dropped back down in weight to flyweight, which is always a concern. 2- Scoggins has been submitted twice recently in fights that he was supposed to win and Sasaki is a crafty submission artist. 3- Sasaki is tall and big for flyweight . 4- Scoggins traveled far to fight in Singapore while Sasaki lives relatively close by in Japan.

Sasaki's submission line is also tempting at +435 and even his decision line at +1325 has value in my opinion.

5Dimes
McGregor +540
Mayweather Jr -660

Over 9.5 +150
Under 9.5 -160

Mayweather by decision +293

BetOnline
McGregor +500
Mayweather Jr -675

Over 9.5 +145
Under 9.5 -175

SportsBook
McGregor +450
Mayweather -650

Over 9.5 +150
Under 9.5 -185

Mayweather KO, TKO, DQ -225
Mayweather Decision +225
McGregor KO, TKO, DQ +500
Draw +2500
McGregor Decision +2800

Added a third unit on Doane reducing average price to +105

Not as confident in Camacho and Asker as I was pre weigh in (granted I had both as substantial underdogs in their fights anyway just not as much so as the odds suggest). Gomi didn't look amazing either but that was to be expected, the two ways that goes are Gomi has nothing left and is quickly finished or it's a very competitive fight and i'm hoping it's the latter. Camacho looked fine, it's just Li has slightly more of a size advantage than I expected. Kim looked great at weigh ins but he always does. I hope it's just a case of the market overvaluing the young prospect against the older vet. Arlovski looked good at weigh ins imo. Doane and Kwak both looked fine.

I'm not sold on Sasaki beating Scoggins, the guys who have subbed him are both way better fighters (Moraga and Munhoz) so i'm passing there even though it's a long price. He made a big deal out of making weight easily weighing in with sunglasses on (I think, he had some accessory I forget I saw it yesterday)

I guess dogs have been doing well lately overall and this just seems like a card where i'd be surprised if I don't get at least 2 of the 6 underdogs i've picked coming through and if I get 3/6 that's a pretty solid card (obviously DHK makes or breaks my card to some extent due to bet sizing, but I do think he's the best play value wise, I just don't see how Covington can be 60%+ here let alone 70%)

Let's hope we get a Mir vs Bigfoot style card where all of the dogs win