I jumped on Assuncao after round 1: Live In-Play Raphael Assuncao (+155) vs Marlon Moraes $300.00 for $465.00

two close rounds and moraes won the third so who knows, assuncao too gunshy and while moraes looks super powerful the top 3 in the division all pick him apart

could be anything from 30-27 moraes to 29-28 assuncao and its fine, I think Moraes won the fight as a whole but it was close gl assuncao on the decision

A bad 30-27 puts me back on track. I can honestly see scoring it 29-28 for Assuncao, but how you get 30-27 I don't know.

Guess it comes down to how you see r2

When I heard the third judge scored it 30-27 I assumed Moraes won as thats the only 'wrong' scorecard imo but I mean the fight was close and neither guy really deserved to win or lose so whatever. Nice to have a close one go my way especially one where I assumed it was going 29-28 Moraes on average
Kinda annoyed I only got +165 when it closed +225 but nice win anyway locked in a profit for the card, 2-2 so far but both 5u bet wins and 3u bet losses and Assuncao was a dog so I think i'm up like 7u or something i'll figure it out after the card

30-27 Assuncao was basically the only wrong score, r1/2 could have gone either way and r3 was close but clear Moraes, Assuncao was the aggressor in r2 and I had him edging it, r3 was clear Moraes, r1 the commentators made it sound like Moraes won most of the round, I only saw the last 2 mins or so and Assuncao did land the big shot before the buzzer so who knows

Who won the Assuando fight? I missed it.

Assuncao.

Yay for me then

2u marquartd at +165 @ 5D

Anyone on Belfort decision? Lol. Still a good result for me. Solid result locked in. Time to see if either Max or Karolina can make it good.

That's Vitor's first decision win in the UFC. Pretty ridiculous

I kinda feel like Holloway is going to win and the judges are going to give it to Aldo anyway

Going to go with 1u Holloway +133 just for the sweat line is right about where I think it should be, I liked Aldo at -110 but I think the true price is right around that 133 mark

Let's go Holloway!

I just realized what i like aboit holloway so much, his inocents, he is a really good kid.

If it goes the way is expected its going to be by a really wide margin..

Added a stab on this since I am down so much: Jose Aldo wins by submission (+940) $75.00 for $705.00

r1 aldo, r2 close, i have it for holloway but in brazil you have to figure the judges have it for aldo

I think this will come down to whether Aldo gasses and whether the judges have Aldo-bias

Holloway has some serious guts to drop his hands and taunt vs Aldo, kid has heart

Wow what a performance, Holloway has arrived

Congrats Balla

Glad I went with my heart over head even though its just a single unit feels good. Won something like 6-7u for the card

In r3 I figured Holloway was finding the rhythm, but wow what a shot to drop him ref gave Aldo plenty of chances to recover I thought he went out to one of the GnP shots but he was still trying to fight and Holloway just kept going

Congrats to Holloway, we have a new champ. Edgar vs Holloway in Hawaii imo, BJ Penn can co-main against a can

Damn. That was amazing to watch and then it became horrible to watch. Aldo deserves so much better than going out like this. MMA is ****ing brutal.

As for betting... I continue to run really hot. 6-3 in bets, +4.9u, +54% ROI.

Basic mma math, so simple, i cluded all you guys in and explained it all, nothing out of order or stupid..and look at the result.

That was EASY money.

What exactely was aldos path to victory? You see my point?


Holloway was elite a long time ago, he has a beautyful soul. Wounderful kid.

I told you so.

Edit: there are spots in mma if you are a long time fan you see spots or setups, trick is to only bet when you are feeling it.

w00t!

ty fixed vitor judges

Nice bink on the parlay

Going to tail the maglame model for the next card too, I took them all except Kelleher of the original plays and he won too as a dog for a solid overall profit. Might be worth playing the dogs late and the favs early, Eduardo was one of the only dogs to steam this card and in general ive been finding more and more favs steaming over dogs lately. Assuncao was my favourite pick of the card and I didn't even come close to the closing price yet he won.

Next card i'm big on Hunt already (14u @ +106) and no other plays yet, have already gone into my reasoning for Hunt and I think he wins close to two thirds of the time in NZ. Will also look at the Pearson line if it's a pickem or better, Vokanovski if he's only a small favourite (or will go moderate to big if its a pickem or hes a dog), Tim Elliott is tempting if it's a pickem but at the same time if people overrate his MM performance and Nguyen is +300 or so i'll take the other side that line could open anywhere. I assume it'll be Elliott -170 or so in which case i'll leave it alone. Zak Ottow seems to be worth a look as well if he's only a small fav. Amusingly I found out the Aussie guy debuting against Moraga's only loss is to an 8-11 regional fighter I actually saw fight on a local card in Townsville (Arana). Volkanovski also has a win over one of the best guys I saw on that card who was making his debut (Jamie Mullarkey) I remember saying at the time that Mullarkey had the most potential on the card and he won 9 in a row before losing to Volkanovski who seems legit so evidently i'm decent at picking 0-0 talent in their first fight. I'm pretty high on Volkanovski, bet him in his UFC debut and he won easily and I think he's a pretty solid fighter who might have a decent UFC tenure.

This card I had
+1.33u Holloway
-3u Eduardo
-3u Spicely
+4.5u Pereira (thought i had 5u originally, actually had 4.5u as i'd risked 5u rather than used base unit on a misclick)
+8.25u Assuncao (got pretty lucky on a coinflip decision)

+8u and change for the card

Decent night for me ended up getting on Assuncao at an average of 2.9. Also took Zago at 1.44 and Moyle at 2.5.

Tried to get Holloway by KO at 7.0 on the exchanges but there were no takers unfortunately.

Gadelha looked really impressive. Think she crushes everyone not named Joanna in that division.

Aldo started fading late 2nd round, he looked tired. Max finished him earlier than I thought, had him ko'ing him late 4th/5th. Great fight though, went just as predicted.

I can't tell you what to do, but please be warned I'm not convinced at all that this model is winning. It's been 30 fights at +16.5u / +55% ROI. I've got 66% of my bets cashing, while historically my model correctly predicts between 60 to 65 percent of fights (depending on a few things). There is no way I'm not running super hot.

FWIW I'm running the same model again next card: no improvements this time. The next thing I want to implement will take some time, and I have to try to get my exams done. I don't want to lose more time not finishing university than I already have.

I gave Aldo the first two, but when I saw how tired Aldo was at the end of the second it really felt like Max was going to take over.

I still think Gadelha beats Joanna 40%+ of the time and no other women in the division do. Joanna has arguably only won half of the rounds against Gadleha across 8 rounds depending how you saw the first fight - if her cardio improves slightly and she wins the first 3 rounds she can definitely take the title (or get a sub on the ground). I'm in for a trilogy fight after Joanna fights Rose next if Gadelha can knock off another contender in the meanwhile which let's face it she can and will beat whoever she fights next Will take Joanna at evens or Gadelha at +150ish or better if they fight a third time

Don't worry I know you're running above EV. I'm only going to take spots where I lean that side anyway (hence me passing on Kelleher this time, although that went poorly). As i've said a few times MMA is only a single digit percentage of my sports betting these days and a tiny percentage of profit, I just enjoy discussing and watching it the most