I like Hunt against Lewis. Think he matches up well against Lewis.
If Lewis chooses to strike with Hunt I think he will be in trouble. Hunt's timing is excellent and he was still pretty competitive against Overeem in his last fight despite the legal stuff going on with the UFC.

Also he is fighting at home that is going to give him huge motivation. In reality I think he should be around 1.8 in this fight would have loved the 2.35 opener on 5dimes but evens is still a good price.

Look at the size difference. apparently, aldo has a 70" reach vs Holloway 69"

To beat Holloway you need to be not just dynamic but constantly dynamic throughout the whole fight, any repeating of a technique is going to get countered. I dont think Aldo has the power to trouble holloway, Also is no spruce chicken he doesn't have the fleet of foot. He has excellent upper body strength, hard lower leg kick, nice takedown defence, but he is open to a fast quick nick and tuck fighter of holloways fight IQ.













where is the trouble for holloway in this fighter?

Edgar is a tough little dude, and his attacks and efforts at take down played into aldo, Holloway is not going to be playing anything into the lap of aldo, its going to be a grueling fight and I suspect Aldo's cardio, sure when he is walking around or walking down he is cool, but what about if he hass to kick it up and keep it up for 3,4 rounds?

Holloway is going to run rings around him.

http://thekingowlbetmma.blogspot.com...bets-free.html

Last Events:
UFC 211: 4-0-1 (+11,16un)
UFN 109: 1-0-0 (+0,71un)

UFC 212 - The King Owl Top Five Bets
[#1] José Aldo wins (1.70) (-142) [5un]
[#2] Claudia Gadelha wins by decision (1.56) (-180) [4un]
[#3] Belfort vs Marquardt Under 1.5 rounds (1.48) (-210) [3un]
[#4] Vitor Belfort wins inside distance (1.78) (-128) [2un]
[#5] Oluwale Bamgbose wins (3.35) (+235) [1un]

Hunt is still much better than Lewis.

Vitor, despite all his losses lately hasn't looked too bad in the first half a round before he gets dismantled by elite fighters. Those elite fighters would do the same to Nathan the great too. Vitor by KO is a very likely outcome here, would bet it at evens.

Aldo over Holloway, Holloway is very good but that's it. He doesn't excel in one area, he's...basic but in a very good way. He's not elite in an area, he seems to lack creativity/style. Just really good at the solid basic MMA game, he's the super solid TAG grinder who doesn't have that next level thinking required to reach the elite. Aldo will probably decision him, like usual.

What ?

Yeah, that doesn't make any sense at all.

Holloway is a spirtual warrior, he is an all time great fighting today, i acknowledge just how masterful he is.

Its going to be a long fight but aldo just does not the fighting ability (correct tools) or pace to keep up with holloway,

What are we saying, aldo is going to finsh holloway inside of three rounds?

Wish my soul was as holloway's is, he is impressive, a beacon of living a wholesome life around mma.

Aldo will tire into the forth, all that muscle, he is built to dominate smaller guys.

I will say i told you so!

Aldo also prone to gassing even though he looked great vs Franky. But Max is an in your face type opponent and I doubt he will let Aldo dictate the pace. He will(should) push him and make him tired, it's Max's fight to lose imo!

Aldo does have power but Max has a good chin and is big for 145. Aldo does not have to fear the TD's but Max can and should take him down, wear him down, he does have ground game, so it's not like Aldo can just punish him with leg kicks!

Think Max will gradually wear him down, and either finish him late on or win by dec. Max has really got that hunger, that's a dangerous weapon to be up against.

Hunt might be better technically but HW is a brawl, a fight. Lewis will swing and KO him!

I think a lot of people underrate Hunt's striking due to his appearance. But he isn't a brawler and picks his shots really well. I remember the exact same argument on here before he fought Roy Nelson.

Of course Lewis could beat him but its a tough sell giving him an edge on the feet.

Only bet I have for this card is Belfort. Put up some money on Assuncao at 2.8 which looks like it should get matched. Not many spots though that I like. Would bet Max if this wasn't in Brazil.

Ages:
Hunt 43
Lewis 32

Whopping 11 year age difference. Lewis is in his prime meanwhile Hunt is clearly nearing the end of his career. I am a Hunt fan and think he could have been the champ had the chips fallen differently in a few fights but this is a tough fight for him.

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Hunt. He just came off a devastating KO from Overeem. He is still embroiled with his lawsuit with UFC. His age - wear and tear. For me this is an easy bet. Lewis is the side. It isn't a big bet as this is HW and Hunt can catch him but right now I think Lewis is the more athletic guy.

Aldo looks tired and this is going to be a 200mph fight, he is past his prime, I guess he has aged a little recently?

I agree Lewis has more upside if he can get his training in order given his age and improve his skillset but stylistically it's so bad for him - how do you see him beating Hunt in NZ (home crowd turns the clock back a couple years imo as Hunt will be more motivated than normal), decision, gnp? He's almost lost about half of the fights he's won (Browne, Abdurakhimov, even Potts almost subbed him) and Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione turned his lights out - Hunt is a better striker than either of him, maybe not quite as athletic but he has better technique and power than either. He went to a split decision garbage fight against way past his prime Roy Nelson, who Hunt put out cold pretty easily. It took 4 rounds for him to take a mid level russian down and he lost the first three rounds.

The last time he looked good was Gonzaga and that was way after Gonzaga's prime too.

Honestly, I don't think any of the guys he's beaten in the UFC would beat current Mark Hunt, and I don't think either of the guys he's lost to would be a favourite either. Mitrione probably has the best chance probably but matches up poorly with Hunt as a striker.

As ridiculous as it sounds I wouldn't be shocked if Hunt was 21-1 or 22-0 vs Lewis's 22 opponents and i'm not high on Hunt by any means but Lewis has just not been fighting the same level guys that Hunt has in his current UFC run. If this was a random fight night in Texas and Hunt didn't really care then sure, Lewis might GnP him, but it's in NZ Hunt's going to be training harder than he's trained in a long time.

^ That does make a lot of sense. I guess he won't want to let the fans down etc. What other factors are at play when you talk about home crowd though? Is Lewis supposed to feel threatened or not fight to his fullest potential? I've never got that tbh, sure traveling will have some impact on you but that's more if you are traveling on the day, such as football for example but in MMA? Are professionals supposed to feel anything because the crowd is cheering their guy on and not you?

Interesting Post bud.

Looking at the way lines have moved it doesn't seem like I've done so well this time, although this might not be the best indication. More lines have moved against me than not, but overall the lines have moved ever so slightly towards me (essentially even).

My best bets, according to the market so far, were Pereira, Medeiros and Eduardo. My worst were Spicely, Kelleher and Karolina.

Very interested to see how this plays out, and super excited to watch the main event as a fan of MMA. Good luck everyone.

does holloway check leg kicks?

This was an interesting read.

The Tactical Guide to Jose Aldo versus Max Holloway

https://sports.vice.com/en_ca/articl...s-max-holloway



MMA betting tips has gone Aldo..
https://mmabettingtips.com/ufc-212-b...s-predictions/




Betting Tip 3: Jose Aldo to beat Max Holloway

Before researching this fight I didn’t have a strong opinion either way on who I felt would win. I leaned slightly towards Max Holloway but I certainly didn’t plant my flag on either side. You will often see me completely pass on a fight in situations like this where my opinion is split and there doesn’t appear to be much value on either side of the betting lines.
The great part about being an MMA handicapper for as long as I have is that you learn to keep an open mind and also learn ways in which you can avoid confirmation bias. Most of the time when I research fights my initial thoughts prove to be correct, but sometimes I run into situations where my initial thoughts were completely wrong. This fight is one of those situations. After watching footage on both guys I went from feeling like Max Holloway would win to feeling extremely confident that Jose Aldo would win…
I am a big fan of Max Holloway because he is ruthlessly consistent, he has a ton of heart and he is also skilled everywhere. He’s also tough, aggressive and has cardio for days. These are all the characteristics I look for when betting on a fighter, but after watching Jose Aldo’s recent fights I was surprised to see that he is significantly better than Holloway in every single aspect of MMA. Aldo is also significantly faster than Holloway and his striking defence could be the best out of everyone in the UFC right now.
Skill for skill Jose Aldo has all the tools he needs to dominate Max Holloway. But of course we know that this doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win… MMA is a complex sport, full of deep psychology and Aldo has been fighting for a long time. We don’t know if his heart is still in this game or if he’s going to turn into a wrestler and retire after the fight [thanks Rumble!].
What we do know, without any shadow of a doubt is that he is more skilled*than Holloway everywhere. There are no exceptions. He has significantly better striking, grappling and defence. It’s possible that Holloway’s youth, toughness and cardio could see him win this fight, but based on all the information we have right now I believe that Jose Aldo is a great bet at the current odds.
Good luck!
Reasons for placing this bet...


Jose Aldo is significantly better than Max Holloway in every single aspect of MMA.

Jose Aldo has home advantage. This means that Max Holloway will probably have to either dominate the fight or finish Aldo in order to win in Brazil. Neither of those things will be easy to do.

Jose Aldo is lightning fast. He is significantly faster than Max Holloway.

Jose Aldo has some of the greatest striking defence in the history of the sport. Max Holloway will have to put himself in extreme danger to land anything significant.

Max Holloway takes a long time to find his range. It is often deep into the second round before Max finds his groove and gets comfortable. It is extremely difficult to find your range against Aldo because he’s so fast and his technique is so tight. He also doesn’t lead with anything. He counters everything that his opponent throws at him. This makes him extremely difficult to read because he doesn’t give off any tells offensively. For this reason Max Holloway is going to find it very difficult to find his range in this fight.

Max Holloway stands heavy on his lead leg and has a thin frame with a skinny torso and thin legs. This makes him very vulnerable to Aldo’s devastating body and leg kicks.

Jose Aldo has world class MMA wrestling and super high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu that he can use to switch things up if Max starts to gain success in the striking exchanges.

Jose Aldo is extremely tough and he has a great chin.

Max Holloway’s hand speed and kicks are slow in comparison to Aldo’s.

Jose Aldo is a master of controlling the distance. There are very few fighters in MMA who can control the distance as well as Aldo does.


Risk Factors...


Max Holloway is young, hungry, tough and aggressive.

Max Holloway has excellent cardio and fights at a high pace.

Max Holloway is very consistent and well rounded.

Max Holloway has a lot of confidence and momentum going into this fight.

Max Holloway has the cardio and toughness required to really crank things up in the 4th and 5th rounds when Aldo might start to get tired.

UFC 212 Risk $2341.50

Jose Aldo (-150) vs Max Holloway $150.00 for $100.00
Jose Aldo wins in round 4 (+2000) $25.00 for $500.00
Jose Aldo wins in round 5 (+2750) $25.00 for $687.50
Jose Aldo/Max Holloway fight ends in round 4 (+1086) $25.00 for $271.50
Jose Aldo/Max Holloway fight ends in round 5 (+1322) $25.00 for $330.50
Jose Aldo wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+401) $25.00 for $100.25
Jose Aldo wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 5 (+3900) ~$27.50 for ~$1,072.50
Jose Aldo/Max Holloway Over 4½ (-170) $85.00 for $50.00
Jose Aldo wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+559) $40.00 for $223.60

Claudia Gadelha wins by decision (-159) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $159.00 for $100.00
Claudia Gadelha/Karolina Kowalkiewicz Draw (+5000) $15.00 for $750.00

Nate Marquardt (+145) vs Vitor Belfort $75.00 for $108.75
Vitor Belfort wins in round 1 (+125) $75.00 for $93.75
Nate Marquardt wins in round 2 (+800) $40.00 for $320.00
Nate Marquardt wins in round 3 (+1800) $30.00 for $540.00
Nate Marquardt/Vitor Belfort fight ends in first 60 seconds (+525) ~$27.50 for ~$144.38

Oluwale Bamgbose (+235) vs Paulo Henrique Costa $100.00 for $235.00
Oluwale Bamgbose wins by TKO/KO (+370) $30.00 for $111.00
Paulo Henrique Costa wins by submission (+883) $25.00 for $220.75
Oluwale Bamgbose/Paulo Henrique Costa fight ends in first 60 seconds (+500) ~$27.50 for ~$137.50

Erick Silva (+125) vs Yancy Medeiros $100.00 for $125.00
Erick Silva wins inside distance (+183) $40.00 for $73.20
Yancy Medeiros wins by submission (+725) $25.00 for $181.25

Marlon Moraes wins by decision (+155) vs Raphael Assuncao $75.00 for $116.25

Eric Spicely (+255) vs Antonio Carlos Junior $100.00 for $255.00
Eric Spicely wins in round 3 (+1900) $10.00 for $190.00
Antonio Carlos Junior wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+470) $25.00 for $117.50

Johnny Eduardo scorecards = no action (+125) vs Matthew Lopez $50.00 for $62.50

Iuri Alcantara wins by submission (+198) vs Brian Kelleher $25.00 for $49.50

Jamie Moyle (+140) vs Viviane Pereira $75.00 for $105.00
Jamie Moyle wins by submission (+950) $20.00 for $190.00
Jamie Moyle wins in round 3 (+2750) $10.00 for $275.00

Jim Wallhead scorecards = no action (+253) vs Luan Chagas $40.00 for $101.20
Jim Wallhead wins in round 3 (+1999) $10.00 for $199.90
Jim Wallhead wins in round 3 (+1999) $40.00 for $799.60
Jim Wallhead wins in round 3 (+2700) ~$27.50 for ~$742.50

Marco Beltran (+130) vs Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo $75.00 for $97.50

Oluwale Bamgbose wins Fastest KO (+1000) $10.00 for $100.00
Yancy Medeiros wins Fastest Submission (+1500) $10.00 for $150.00
Jose Aldo/Max Holloway FOTN award winner (+175) $25.00 for $43.75

Parlays:
Nate Marquardt/Vitor Belfort won’t start round 3 (-364) + Claudia Gadelha (-335) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $200.00 for $131.05
Marlon Moraes/Raphael Assuncao Over 2½ (-257) + Claudia Gadelha/Karolina Kowalkiewicz Over 2½ (-350) $200.00 for $157.20

Eric Spicely wins by submission (+600) + Erick Silva wins by submission (+349) $15.00 for $456.45
Iuri Alcantara wins by submission (+170) + Erick Silva wins by submission (+349) $15.00 for $166.84
Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo wins by submission (+385) + Erick Silva wins by submission (+349) $15.00 for $311.65
Iuri Alcantara wins by submission (+170) + Eric Spicely wins by submission (+600) $15.00 for $268.50
Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo wins by submission (+385) + Eric Spicely wins by submission (+600) $15.00 for $494.25
Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo wins by submission (+385) + Iuri Alcantara wins by submission (+170) $15.00 for $181.43

Round Robin by two-team parlays. Risk ~$27.50
Nate Marquardt/Vitor Belfort fight ends in round 3 (+1100)
Oluwale Bamgbose/Paulo Henrique Costa fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Erick Silva/Yancy Medeiros fight ends in round 3 (+700)
Marlon Moraes/Raphael Assuncao fight ends in round 3 (+1000)
Eric Spicely/Antonio Carlos Junior fight ends in round 3 (+850)
Johnny Eduardo/Matthew Lopez fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Iuri Alcantara/Brian Kellher fight ends in round 3 (+750)
Jim Wallhead/Luan Changas fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Marco Beltran/Deiveson Alcantara Figueiredo fight ends in round 3 (+750)

Wow. Sick finish. 2-0 so far (Pereira and Kelleher). Running good is good.

Annoyed I didn't tail Kelleher but still a 1-0 start on Pereira

Lots of late steam on Eduardo, 3u at +180 is nice given its closing at evens

Late steam against Assuncao +200 seems crazy given early steam was on him but already have enough on so not going to fade steam

Tempted to add Medeiros -134 but will wait for now

Back to only being up slightly after Eduardo loses

Assuncao being +200 is so weird to me

Hopefully maglame's magic model can pick another dog in Spicely here

I've noticed this year mma favs seem to be steaming more than dogs overall, would be interesting to track movement on small, moderate and heavy favs vs dogs on opening vs closing lines

Magic. Rofl. At least we can be disappointed together xd

2u Aldo by Dec +150

considering hedging with Holloway round 4 or 5...think his most likely path to victory is to try and push the pace and KO aldo when he is gassing in later rounds. Otherwise I see him getting outclassed everywhere and losing a decision most likely.

2u Vitor by KO at evens

I think his offensive striking is still more than good enough to KO Nate more than 50% here

Increasing my Holloway.

Reason for this is several fold.

First is Max Holloway went the distance vs conor, who is substantially better more of a puzzle and lethally dangerous than Aldo.

Aldo fights and wins vs small wrestlers, that's his wheel house.

Second I believe in Holloway, he is called blessed and I know it, he is blessed.

Aldo is going to get taken a part because Holloway is a river, he is fluid personified which is the polar opposite of what Aldo needs now entering past the famous 9 year rule, a MMA fighter should start thinking about hanging up his gloves past 9 years, or 9 1/2 years, his first fight was in 2004?


If Aldo fought more often, and did better than four D wins in this last four we would have ammunition to not pull the trigger on a larger bet but it would still be a bet.

My bet feels right and Ive done the right thing your meant to do by MMA betting, when you think you have an edge or a read, you add to your bet.


Holloway was **** hot 10 fights back and has grown and added more on top.

I would not be liking my Aldo bet here, and I one million percent would not be betting Aldo by D, he doesn't have the pace, Aldo wins inside of the first 2 or 3 rounds,

Another sleeping point is Max Holloways power is under rated, he is very technical, a master of suitable striking. (a dr at wearing you arse down)



Single - Jose Aldo vs Max Holloway
Max Holloway - Fight Betting
Odds: 11/8
1 lines at £175.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £175.00
Potential Return:£415.63

Total in place is like £250 at around evens plus this £175


I have to go full day paintballing up in 5 hours but I think I have to see this fight live regardless :-)