What a counter not sure if oezdemir is legit top 5 or cirkuniv just made a mistake but glad I didn't hammer the cirkunov line. If Gustafson wins I think I'll be close to even if he loses I'll be down a bunch

Oezdemir v manuwa on the Jones vs dc card please, manuwa is on standby anyway

I like this prop too. Covers any Glover win and Gus by decision as well: Not Alexander Gustafsson inside distance (-145) $145.00 for $100.00

Glover+255 I see him getting a sub win a good chunk of the time

great performance by Gustafsson

What a moment for Gustoffson considering his last fight in Sweden against AJ.

Look how many shots Glover took and compare the power of AJ who got the job done in 1 punch. Great chin by Glover and great heart. Excellent strategy by Gustoffson.

Good night for me. Went 6-4 in bets. +8.3u. +83% ROI. Nice to see my model winning for the first two cards I've used it, but definitely running super hot.

pretty good movement and footwork by Gus

Anyone know where I can find out how old this guy is? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Deive...ueiredo-110485

EDIT:
Not gonna have time to do any work on my model this week, so might as well add the lines that are available early. Feeling the losing card coming xd

Holloway @ +125
Karolina @ +235
Belfort @ -127
Medeiros @ +100

All for a unit.

Lines dropped so adding:

Assuncao @ +175
Kelleher @ +220
Spicely @ +190
Eduardo @ +170
Pereira @ -111

All for one unit.

Again I'm on a bunch of underdogs. Went well last time, but honestly has me worried to see my bets being so underdog heavy twice in a row. Paulo and Chagas are close to being bettable for me, so if they come in a bit I guess I'll be on them.

Made a couple bets before checking thread glad to see magnate has both. Went 3u assuncao +165 and 2u Eduardo +180 I may go bigger on both need to do some more analysis. I really like assuncao he's the #4 bw until Rivera proves otherwise and Moraes has been fighting cans and has no top wins. Aldos temping in a pickem too but I want Holloway to win and he's steaming so may pass.

Added 14u hunt for the next card at +106 average yesterday too

Did some research myself on all of your picks maglame (mostly just some tape and my own observations of their previous fights) and decided I dislike the Kelleher pick but like all of the others a lot including the two I hadn't already bet myself. I also don't like the Chagas price at all really and I think the vig is too high on Paulo too to the degree i'd lean towards the other side on both fights at current price. I do like Pereira though i'd forgotten about her last fight until I read the recap but agree she's a fav over Moyle in Brazil and I like the Spicely price too especially as it's improved

A year or two ago id have snap taken Erick Silva and Vitor as well but passing for now due to USADA ruining both of them and I think Aldo at -110 is great but since the steam is on Holloway and I like Holloway more i'm leaving it for now. I think objectively I should bet on Aldo but might wait to see if he looks focused and like he cares at the weigh ins etc. Kind of tempted by Gadelha -271 but it's a bit steep when Karolina is legit even though Gadleha is better if she can't take Karolina down at will shes probably a small dog so passing.

I now have the following bets for this weekends card.

5u Pereira -111
5u Assuncao +165
3u Spicely +205
3u Eduardo +180

and 14u Hunt +106 for next weekend's card as I really think Hunt is more like a -200 fav against Lewis in NZ I just don't think the matchup favours Lewis at all stylistically.

Very interested in seeing where the Volkanovski price opens for the NZ card too.

Seems Paulo and Chagas are getting even shorter. At this rate I'm not gonna be on them.

I'm really interested in seeing how Pereira/Moyle plays out. It is by far the biggest discrepancy between what my model thinks and what the betting lines imply for this card. Would be a pretty big warning sign if she performs poorly.

Fight was under my radar entirely but I do love it, I mean she beat Valerie Letourneau (in a fight that was very close) who did okay vs Joanna for a while, is 12-0, is Brazilian fighting a non Brazilian in Brazil. Yeah, her other 11 wins are cans, but in WMMA 12-0 is impressive. Moyle's best win is Curran probably and that was a close fight too and she lost to Amanda Bobby Cooper and some chick i've never heard of.

Because it's WMMA i'd be reluctant to lay too much of a price but -111 seems good on the surface to me too. Granted i've only seen I think one Pereira fight and maybe 3 or so of Moyle's.

Pereira is 5 years younger and more experienced as well granted its 23 and 28 but Pereira is more likely to be improving probably still. Moyle has 2 inches of reach and one inch of height, but they're both short so Pereira being short for the weight class shouldnt matter much

I think I like Assuncao the most betting wise this card though unless Moraes is TJ/Cruz/Cody level he's not getting past Assuncao and he's never been tested and has been fighting cans forever. Substantial dog odds too, i'd actually lean Assuncao at evens.

Spicely seems good at the price too, Carlos is huge and it's in Brazil but he's prone to making mistakes and Spicely's been getting nice underdog wins. Slightly worried about the steam against Eduardo on paper the opening line seemed about right but +180 seems way too high.

If Aldo is focused/motivated I think he's a bet too I just like Holloway too much to want to cheer against him

Took Vitor at 1.78.

With it being his last fight in and in Brazil I could see him saying **** it and getting on the juice. Even if he isn't I still he is the better fighter and has shown even in his loss his hand speed is still good. Marquadt is probably more well rounded but he has been pretty hittable in his last few fights .

Will be interested to see the odds on Vitor in round 1

Not been here for a while but I've just hit Aldo and Gadelha @2.67 for 10u.

Swoop why you so big on Hunt? I know you don't like Lewis, or don't give him any credit but 14 Unit on Hunt, who's chin is starting to deteriorate and who really has only one method to victory the 1 big ko punch (which he signposts nowadays). I don't see it tbh, I think Lewis wins.

Also looking at Max again, that guy is game as, I think Aldo will have his hands full. I was initially leaning Aldo but I'm not so sure anymore.

I like Gadelha a lot even though the Polish chick is super game too, I feel this fight is much clearer than the Aldo fight.

http://thekingowlbetmma.blogspot.com...marquardt.html

I know it's hard to bet on Vitor Belfort. I know he lives the worst moment of his twenty plus year career. But the scenario is all set for a Brazilian victory. A beautiful victory. An expetacular knockout. He does not want to say goodbye to Brazil with a defeat. He does not want to say goodbye to the UFC being knocked out. He wants to repeat the moment he had against Wanderlei Silva. He will knock out Marquardt not only with his hand, but with the hand of all the fans.

Most likely this fight will end in the first round. Both have a very heavy hand and a very light chin. Any displacement of air near the chin of one of the two and finished. Still, Belfort has managed to keep that initial blast in the fights. He's tired two minutes after he blows out, but I believe those two minutes will be enough to knock out the Marquardt.

The Brazilian did not have easy life in the last fights, since it caught two very fast fighters like Gastelum and Jacaré. This time he faced an extremely slow opponent. I think it's time for this explosion to really blow up the opponent and not the Brazilian himself.

That's not how MMA works though. He can wish, his fans can wish but life is brutal, this game is brutal. Look at past fighters losing their last fight!

I early hit victor when he was -129 but just couldn't do it. It is possible he juices as it's his last fight though and he's steamed in now. I'm passing but would take vitor r1 TKO if I had to bet

I'm big on hunt for a few reasons. First his chin while weaker than it was is still above average for hw. Second, Lewis can only win by gnp and that involves taking hunt down and finishing him before he can get up. Trust me I'm very low on hunt I've faded him a lot more than I've bet him but unless I've drastically misread the style this fight is tailor made for hunt to send the crowd home happy in nz. Lewis was losing the abdurakhimov fight and got lit up by Browne's kicks before Browne ****ed it up. This will go exactly the way Shawn Jordan vs derrick Lewis did unless Lewis shoots at the bell completes the takedown and gets the finish or lands enough damage that hunt is gassed at the start of r2 and I don't think hunt gasses till r3 at least and only if Lewis is winning. Lewis has a chin but doesn't react well to being hit and his striking defence is bad. Hunt hits like a truck and is technical if slow but Lewis is slow too and while he's super strong like Lesnar his offensive wrestling is not Lesnar or stipe level and that's lewis's path to victory. If he doesn't come to wrestle and gnp he loses and if he does I'm not sure he can even take hunt down at will and even if he can hunt is hard to finish unless he's gassed.

This will probably be hunts last win over a top ten opponent but I'm very confident he is a moderate favourite. Also on the off chance it goes the distance home crowd judging but that's unlikely as hunt will eventually ko him standing or if Lewis gets tds at the start of every round he'll get a TKO eventually if he doesn't gas and if he does hunt will get back up and ko him

This is ending in a walk off ko for hunt though. Then he will lose to whichever top 5 fighter he draws after that. The only top guy hunt may beat is Rothwell if he gets him next but this is hunts fight to lose.

Lewis can't beat anyone ranked above him at this point. Browne level guys are his ceiling. He could beat Reem via punchers chance maybe but that's it. He's a physical beast with heart and strength but he lacks the technique to beat any of the elite specialists

I disagree about Moraes only fighting cans... Bollinger and Hill are both UFC level (admittedly low), and Sheymon Moraes is a damn good prospect. I expect to see him in the UFC in the future.

Moraes is also quite a bad matchup for Assuncao, who is far better against grapplers. His defensive grappling is among the best in MMA, but he hasn't been effective with his offense (granted, this is tough against Caraway, Sterling, Munhoz, and Dillashaw). Moraes has damn good TDD, though... one of his main training partners is Frankie Edgar, who is also a good clone for Assuncao in the striking. The only issue for Moraes in this fight is his volume, but I have no doubt that if there's a finish, he'll be the one doing the finishing. To me the line makes perfect sense.



Also disagree about Spicely. In fact, I'm making a decent-sized play on Carlos Jr. This is a guy who tapped Gary Tonon in a pure grappling match. He is damn good against other BJJ fighters. He just struggles against wrestlers who can push the pace on him and have a knack for never being on bottom. But he impressed me last fight against Vetenori when he was able to take the 3rd after getting pounded in the 2nd. I think he'll have the edge in the striking as well.

Yeah Carlos is def a favourite just +205 seemed too high to me. Don't get me wrong moraes is good I just think the fight is a pickem the way assuncao made caraway look helpless and the first tj close fight which was part way through tjs improvement is legit even though to outclassed him in the rematch. I just think +165 is way too high in a fight I think is 5050. Assuncao has great counter striking and grappling and it's a huge step up for Moraes while assuncao has been fighting guys like sterling caraway and tj and holding his own with the exception of the tj rematch and tj is phenomenal now and would batter Moraes too.

One wildcard is at 34 assuncao will start going downhill soon but we are yet to see any sign of it
I'd argue he's faced 10 plus guys or so better than anyone on moraes record and assuncao has a winning record vs them

I agree that Lewis is slow but I disagree with you, I think Lewis can KO hunt too and he can win on points. He has more paths to victory than just wrestling.

Browne was lighting him up because he hurt him early on, not saying he wouldn't of anyway but I think it's worth mentioning. To Lewis's credit he still beat Browne, even when hurt!

Hunt will slow down sooner than Lewis imo and I don't buy the home fight glory victory BS.

Max Holloway
Stake: £250.00
Potential Returns: £525.00

Total stake: £250.00
Potential Returns: £525.00


book that sht! so I can lay back down again at 1am GMT and go to sleep, enough of this!



lol... Aldo to beat hollyway... oh rly? and I have been following this passion for how long and 2+2=3 now?

nope not today baby.
. this is a huge chance to make money and Ill bite @ evens or better, its actually more than that.

scanning the thread seeing 11 units on hunt mentioned?

Hollyway is a 11 unit play
Hollyway has been pure magic gold for how long, AND GETTING BETTER?



Even a pretty close to prime Conor McGregor went three rounds August 17, 2013, and it was a song and dance. no domination, same level.. same level fight IQ. He is as cute as it comes in the cage. he is knowing his marbles inside out outside in and wrote the book about it back in 1920 sitting in an art deco chair.

And Hollyway is a big boy,
He is no Chad Mendes, Frankie Edgar who Aldo has fought 4 times in his last 6 fights excluding his arse whooping's,

On top of that he went to the decision all four times vs these two "notable names".

Your going the distance vs Chad Mendes, and then you expect to get in the cage with the Cardio machine on a whole other planet Hollyway work ethic chess game and expect to win a D in there?

Really? I don't think so dude.


Hollyway is really some thing special and he was some thing special a long long time back and has ripped open a ten fight win streak since a D loss to the most dominate fighter (conor) in recent memory.






A good big guy beats a good little guy, does not matter. how good his legs kicks are, the game HAS MOVED ON since Aldo

Hollyway will out think, out work, out angle, out cardio, out puzzle him. Its what he does, its his BREAD AND BUTTER, and he has TAPE on Aldo here, backing up around the block able to train for him.




I am sticking £250 on my fighter I have just loved to see come along and get to such a high place now and we are in vs A NAME.



Anthony Pettis was a name, what happened to this bad arse when he got in with the wind of Hawaii





We ship plus 3 units on Holloway at evens or better ASAP and lick our chops.

Hollyway has every thing on his side and then some, he is as crafty as it gets, he has the magic about crafty, you cant touch him.

We bet Hollyway here vs a guy going out the door and might just bang his head on the way out.

Holloway is the wrong cat for Aldo to fight, he needs to fight a smaller man with power and slower. Some one he can look good vs, your getting in with this guy, a guy with an air of all time greatness which importantly we still don't know or understand how good he can get, the kid is 25.... not 28 or 32. he is FRESH.


Man if you know your MMA, you know how good Hollyway is.. you know it, but you wont pull a bet on him because of the word Aldo.

Hollyway is the big fav in this fight in my mind, he is the big boy in there. Every plank constant inch of that cage, he is in charge of Aldo and the fight progression, the cage wont be aldos, he will be out of place that's for dam sure, all his timings out of sync with the current generation.


This is what happens to not just the fighters but all of us, time moves on, we are not 25 any more.


Give Hollyway his credit, put a unit on him already. He is the much better fighter.

hollyway is just so good, he is an all time classic, alive today, I hope the UFC look after Hollway properly man. PROPERLY.

I hope you're right i'm just not ready to fade Aldo in Brazil at Holloways price going to just not bet that one and cheer for Holloway. I probably should have got on that Aldo -110 just to arb it with the closing price looks like Aldo out to -14x and wouldnt be surprised if he closes at -150 or so. I hope Holloway can do it.

Re: Hunt slowing down against Lewis, he slowed down against TRT Bigfoot yet still rallied to get a draw in Australia despite being taken down several times and being tired he even won a 10-8 in the fifth (and obviously won the rematch easily). He's only really been made to look bad by contenders who have better wrestling and cardio than Lewis (Stipe, roided Lesnar) and he held his own with Reem standing for a while and Reem is infinitely more dangerous than Lewis on the feet. Yes, Lewis could wall and stall him or get a takedown and GnP win but look at Hunt's wins and losses in the last few years, he beats guys with bad striking defence (Struve, Bigfoot, Nelson, Mir) and loses to guys with good striking defence and standup (Miocic, Reem, Werdum, JDS). He was only really badly beaten in the Miocic fight too, plus Lesnar via grappling, the other fights were all competitive and thats basically the top 5 at HW except for Cain in his L column. The lone exception to both top 5 and him losing to people with elite striking is Brock, but Brock wrestle****ed him before he could strike and Brock is both an athletic freak and was on steroids. Lewis is strong like Brock, but doesn't have the NCAA credentials or the roid strength and Hunt is strong too.

Is Lewis a Struve/Nelson/Bigfoot/Mir tier striker or a Miocic/Reem/Werdum/JDS level striker? I'd say the former. Is he a Miocic/Lensar level wrestler, the only two guys to dominate via takedowns? I don't think that he is.

The worst guys Hunt has faced since Sep 2011 are Kongo and Rothwell and he has a 6-4-2 record in that time (or 6-5-1 if we dont count Lesnar as a NC). I'm not sure Lewis beats anyone on that list except Kongo, maybe Struve, maybe Rothwell pre improvement and TRTless Bigfoot. Mir too I guess but that could go either way.