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05-14-2017 , 12:10 AM
Andrade missed her best shot of winning on the 1st round. Looking good for Joanna.

Deeper this goes, probably good value on JJ even with big vig


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05-14-2017 , 12:10 AM
anyone know what the prop was on JDS/Stipe going distance?
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05-14-2017 , 12:17 AM
Joanna has been taken down a couple times but the striking is one sided
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05-14-2017 , 12:18 AM
Andrade actually has better cardio than I thought.

Still think she'll gas soon.


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05-14-2017 , 12:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
anyone know what the prop was on JDS/Stipe going distance?
It's 9/4 at William Hill. 1/3 that it finishes inside the distance.
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05-14-2017 , 12:20 AM
Unless she gets subbed Joanna should win
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05-14-2017 , 12:32 AM
Wow, that was a great fight. Loved the leg kick strategy.
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05-14-2017 , 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by SwoopAE
<3 Sal D'Amato

My heartrate was through the roof with my fate resting on him of all people for the split decision

I think 29-28 Maia is about fair considering how the fight went, but it's a rare one where you can score the fight anything up to 30-27 for either guy depending on what you're looking for - in R1 Maia dominates for 4 mins but then takes more damage and loses the end of the round then in r2/3 Masvidal dominates the first few mins standing but ends up on the bottom being outgrappled last few mins

Nice that Dana said Maia's got the title shot. I wonder if this is the fight Woodley's started camp for already, if so probably at 213 assuming Maia's knee is fine? I have to assume Woodley was told he'd be fighting the winner of this fight next

Can't wait for Woodley vs Maia. Weird matchup with Woodley being so dangerous and explosive but also so tentative. I actually think it's a good matchup for Woodley and a badish matchup for Maia, but I also think Maia is a far better fighter than Woodley who is super overrated still

I don't know exactly how much i'm up on Maia, I lost a tiny r3 Maia bet and a r3 Masvidal hedge, added a couple Maia units yesterday etc but I won over 20+ and I think 25+ units on the fight and am up 30 units or more for the card now for what will be my best card ever (got 7.5u to win 5u or so on Joanna and 3u on JDS from here, but it's still a 20+ unit winning card and could be 40 depending on results)

I'm curious which judges scored which rounds for which fighter - all 3 rounds could have been scored for either guy in theory
LOL when they read Sal's name my heart skipped a beat for you Swoop, I was like NOOOO not Sal !!!

I had like 1u on Masvi, you had like a mirrion.. I was hoping my bet lost LOLOL and Sal came thru to call the right score

What night of fights, great card.
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05-14-2017 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grumpy64
I actually think Mas should have gotten the win but I don't feel like Maia winning is horrible either
Which rounds of of curiosity? Interesting enough all 3 sherdog guys had it Maia/Mas/Maia for 29-28 Maia. I had it coinflip/lean maia/clear but competitive maia personally but in hindsight I may have overrated Maia in r2 idk

Looks like Joanna wins, fight wasn't as good as i'd hoped but was still decent, Joanna just used the stick and move gameplan and it worked - landed some nice shots but Andrade is just too much of a tank to go down even to headkicks at 115

Fantastic card for me now, let's go JDS to close strong. Cashed out my 3u on JDS for a 0.2u loss since price is so much better now, re-bet it for 2.1u @ +151
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05-14-2017 , 12:39 AM
Guess i'll throw up another couple units at +160 on Matchbook and have 4u on if they get matched. I do think Stipe is a tiny favourite probably but I think more like -110 or so than the -170 or whatever the line is now and thats only because he's younger and had less wars, I think this is a decent stylistic matchup for JDS.

So rare for an ex champ to win his belt back this much later but JDS is reasonably live here I think given the situation

Ended up getting that extra 2u @ +160, shoulda done the lot on matchbook forgot about how useful it is when betting just before fight time

edit: screw it extra 4 units. little bit of a late move back to JDS, 6u on JDS @ +157ish average now

Last edited by SwoopAE; 05-14-2017 at 12:47 AM.
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05-14-2017 , 12:41 AM
Big KO props for both within distance, lets goooo!"!!!!
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05-14-2017 , 12:42 AM
I had it Maia/Masvi/Maia for a 29/28 Maia but a lot of scores made sense all the way up to a tie as rnd 3 was very close, Masvidal was cruising to a 29-28 decision and beating up Maia on the 3rd until Maia chased that leg he pushed and was able to keep a tired Masvidal down.

I am so happy Maia at 39 might get the belt before retiring.

Masvidal can improve, he is very young.
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05-14-2017 , 12:44 AM
Here is another bet I am Ok with losing because I really want Cigano to get his belt back.
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05-14-2017 , 12:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Which rounds of of curiosity? Interesting enough all 3 sherdog guys had it Maia/Mas/Maia for 29-28 Maia. I had it coinflip/lean maia/clear but competitive maia personally but in hindsight I may have overrated Maia in r2 idk

Looks like Joanna wins, fight wasn't as good as i'd hoped but was still decent, Joanna just used the stick and move gameplan and it worked - landed some nice shots but Andrade is just too much of a tank to go down even to headkicks at 115

Fantastic card for me now, let's go JDS to close strong. Cashed out my 3u on JDS for a 0.2u loss since price is so much better now, re-bet it for 2.1u @ +151
Well I feel like the heavy punches at the end should have won the 1st round for Mas also gave the 2nd to mas I don'the think maia did enough after getting top control to overcome what Mas did in the first 2 minutes
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05-14-2017 , 12:44 AM
R3/4/5 either please 1-time!!!!
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05-14-2017 , 12:56 AM
Wow, JDS is not good with his back to the cage and just didn't do anything about it.

Oh well still an amazing card for me. Congrats to everyone who did well today
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05-14-2017 , 12:56 AM
Wish it came later but still good!
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05-14-2017 , 01:00 AM
Knew it was never going the distance though.
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05-14-2017 , 01:00 AM
Started poorly, but went 7-3 with 30% ROI for a profit of 3.21u in the end.
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05-14-2017 , 01:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Wow, JDS is not good with his back to the cage and just didn't do anything about it.

Oh well still an amazing card for me. Congrats to everyone who did well today
They have mentioned that several times during the lead up to this match. It's were he takes most damage.
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05-14-2017 , 02:59 AM
Yeah I mean I know that it's just he did so well adjusting to move better in the Rothwell fight i'd hoped he'd do more today

Totalled it up, looks like I won about 34u for the card with a lot of on the Maia fight and my Edgar/Joanna/Vick/Branch wins being enough to more than offset the JDS/Skelly/Aguilar losses. Glad I trusted my instincts and went big on Maia and to a lesser extent Edgar. I really should bet fewer spots (but sweats, so I won't) and go bigger on the ones that I think are the best.

Pretty sure this is my biggest winning card ever which is nice after a couple of not as good ones. I started this year well but had a couple weaker ones lately, I think this one will put me back in the black for the year for MMA betting

Last edited by SwoopAE; 05-14-2017 at 03:19 AM.
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05-14-2017 , 05:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
anyone know what the prop was on JDS/Stipe going distance?
Last I looked it was +240/-320 or thereabouts
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05-14-2017 , 09:49 AM
Joanna was -110 3 minutes into the fight after Andrade landed a couple shots, my biggest bet of the year luckily made my card a very profitable one.

Nice showing SwoopAE huge card for you.
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05-14-2017 , 10:15 AM
Great job Swoop, love reading your analysis so good to see it pay off for you. Sometimes it pays off all at once, sometimes it is a slow grind. That's just how sports betting works as you know.

Was on Maia and Edgar as well. Gave a little back on JDS for a sweat bet but overall very good card.

Listening to the post-fight press conf, Stipe is such a cool dude. Hopefully UFC starts promoting him more. Tough to promote HW's because of all the variance and no one wins more than a few fights in a row but give the guy a chance to be a megastar.
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