Agree with most of what's been said above about comparisons between Olivera and Rodriguez. Haven't watched any Olivera tape recently, but the other big thing is Rodriguez fights on the feet at a much longer distance than most fighters, meaning TD attempts have to come from further away or get telegraphed more (or Frankie has to successfully pressure him onto the fence / do something else to close the distance).

Plus the Edgar-Olivera fight was almost four years ago, and I might be wrong but part of my thinking here is Frankie is slowing down some, and his physical decline is going to accelerate sooner rather than later. If that's a factor, a fight from four years ago won't be as informative as his more recent ones.

Frankie catching kicks was mentioned too and yes, he catches some, but he doesn't usually do much with the ones he catches. It's certainly not like "Frankie caught your kick, so you're 100% getting taken down".

Also Edgar-Rodriguez will be a three-rounder, not five. Cardio for both guys is absolutely fine though so I don't know that it makes a lot of difference?

Think any remaining value has come out of this one now anyway, mean odds on Best Fight Odd are down to Rodriguez +113

Interested to see how this pans out Maglame. Good luck! I seem to be on the same side of most of the fights except for JDS and Skelly this card. Might cash out of my JDS bets if he doesn't look great at weigh ins and Skelly's a pretty small bet so pretty happy with all of that.

Thanks, you too!

Yes, its all fights, but unfortunately it seems I got a bit ahead of myself. Turns out there was a bug in my check for historical results which biased the results in my favor quite a bit. The real correct pick rate is ~65%. A bit of a bummer, but I guess if it was that easy everyone would do it

Age does play a large factor in my model. All else equal, being 5 years older (younger) makes you ~5%-points less (more) likely to win. This estimate might change as the model improves, as it could be capturing some other effects as well.

As for state level differences in MMA fighters, I don't have anything that granular in my model currently. For this particular thing I would suspect it's not really that valuable to look at. It might be important in predicting someones first MMA fight, but by the time someone gets to the UFC I suspect most of those differences are already revealed by their actual performance in their pre-UFC fights.

I'll mostly take a break from working on this the coming month, as I have to at least try to finish my last semester of school.

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier: I believe that Alvarez manages to reduce the pace of the fight considerably to undermine Poirier's style and score gradually, winning in the decision. Alvarez should have no problem in takedown Poirier and keeping him on the ground for as long as he needs to. He can work well on leg kicks to undermine Poirier. Dominate the fight in the clinch and leave victorious by points in the decision of the judges. If the two fighters forget to defend themselves and decide to strike madly, I believe that Alvarez wins with a knockout, to better absorb the strikes and to have a better chin than Poirier. Eddie Alvarez win @2.05 (+105)

Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodríguez: Yair has never faced anyone like Edgar. Never faced anyone with the level of boxing that the American has. Never faced anyone with the level of wrestling that the American has. Frankie Edgar can knock the Mexican down any time he wants and keep the fight on the ground until next month. The size of Yair will also be no problem, since Edgar is accustomed to always be the little one. Edgar can beat Yair in all areas in this fight.

Even though he had not made his best exhibition in his last fight, Frankie Edgar did just enough to win. If Yair gives work, the American has everything to win another fight. Yair will probably strike using distance, but I believe Frankie Edgar will find the time still in the first round. If Yair chooses to use the low kicks, he will end up easing Edgar's job of getting a takedown. I can not see a victory for Yair in this fight, of course taking an unexpected knockout. Frankie Edgar win @1.77 (-130)

Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal: I believe in the Brazilian's victory. Masvidal will end up accepting Demian Maia's gameplan and will be finalized. I do not see Masvidal running away from the grid, or running from the clinch attempts, or trying to get up when he's on the ground. I see the American pounding even when the situation is bad for him. Only now he's facing Demian Maia. The Brazilian has not lost any chance to finish his opponents.

In my opinion, it is very likely that Maia ends up winning by submission. Even if it's only three rounds, at some point Masvidal will make a mistake. If the Brazilian fails in their takedown attempts, he would still be able to score better in the first two rounds for controlling the fight. Demian Maia win @2.10 (+110)

Various bits of news today, won't post TUF spoilers incase anyone hasn't seen but enjoying the season so far, this episode wasn't the best but the fight was decent

Penne flagged for body passport analysis whatever that is after originally passing a drug test she's failed it, I haven't read into what a body passport is but if it helps catch drug cheats i'm all for it (disclaimer if it's recreational drugs or whatever she's popped for it's stupid, i'm assuming it's a PED it doesn't seem to specify yet) so given she's coming off 3 losses, granted 2 of which are to the champ and top contender I assume she'll be given her walking papers if she's failed a drug test

Cejudo vs Pettis is off, Cejudo injured his hand

GSP can't fight until November or so, Dana wanted July for the title shot so he said it's going to be Bisping vs Romero now. I hope Bisping shocks all of the nonbelievers and humiliates Romero for being the cheating scumbag he is.

Also read an interview with Maia where he said he's got a new transition to take the back that he's been working in practice that he's never used before and that it's even better than what he used to get Condit. Seems insane to me that he's a small underdog to Masvidal.

Body passport analysis is probably where they have run tests to see (blood) values and if one of those is outside their previous norms, they flag it. I'm not for it, seems too sketchy. They once banned a speedskater this way without her ever testing positive for anything.

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ma...-sign.3527769/

Maia looking big compared to Masvidal. I expected it but this confirms it imo. Just looking at them, Maia looks more confident and physically imposing. I just don't see how

I kinda want to go huge and put like 10% of my net worth on Maia or something, I mean i'm not going to because I already have my biggest MMA bet possibly ever on him and thats plenty and i'm all responsible when it comes to BRM and all that, but how on earth is this a coinflip line slightly favouring Masvidal...

I mean, I guess I was mildly wrong about Weidman over Masvidal but I like this spot even more than that at the time. The first round went exactly as I expected but Weidman gassed earlier than I thought. The ending was BS and the fight was a long way from over though.

In before Maia loses via epileptic seizure or randomly twisted ankle in the first as tends to happen whenever I go huge on something - but if the fight plays out normally I fully expect Maia to win something like two thirds of the time.

I normally only have one or two bets a card. But I think this card is really good for betting.

Maia at 1.8
Branch at 2.5
JDS at 2.3
Alvarez at 2.1
Cejudo at 1.36

Pretty annoyed Cejudo fight has been cancelled as I got really got odds. I feel JDS fight is 50/50. Branch has impressed me outside the UFC and I think again its a pretty close fight.

Maia line movement has thrown me a bit. I see the way he dominated top level grapplers like Fitch/Nelson and I do think he will do the same to Masvidal. Be interesting to see what the odds close at.

I have Alvarez as a favourite over Poirer. Only question is how much the Conor fight has effected him mentally. Overall though he is a better fighter then Poirer.

Something I noticed, Gunnar welcomed the grappling and perhaps wanted to test his skillset vs Maja and it cost him. Not so sure Masvidal will be playing Maja's game. Condit looked like he threw the fight, no way anybody is that good at taking a man's back and no way anybody is that bad at giving his back. Even untrained people would of given a better performance that Condit did.

Not saying Maja won't win but I don't think it will be easy, like the Condit fight. Masvidal got good wrestling too, he seems to think Maja will gas himself out going for those TD's.

Agree w/ everything in RB87's post

Added another 3u on Maia at +110 on b365 to bring my average price up to about evens after seeing them square off and noting Maia did have a minor size advantage like I thought. My Maia bet is close to the size of all of my other bets on the card combined but when he's +110 and I think he's a -200 favourite it would be insane not to go huge.

Condit has always had terrible TDD and relied on an aggressive guard to defend on the ground and stand back up to strike, the problem is that's beyond useless against Maia because of his BJJ being the best in the world at 170 and possibly in the whole UFC.

Maia said he's got a new technique to take the back that no one has seen before and I don't see any reason not to believe him. He's so much better at 170 than he ever was at 185 due to being large for 170 as opposed to being small for 185 and his chain wrestling and fight IQ are better than they used to be. Sure, Masvidal could stuff him until he gasses and win but it's only a 3 round fight, Masvidal would have a better chance in 5 rounds because now if he loses two rounds due to takedowns he just loses the fight unless he finishes. Basically, it comes down to can Maia take him down twice (and may only need to be once if he can get the sub) before Masvidal can knock him out and I have a r3 hedge in case Maia gasses and gets finished late - if he gets knocked out it's likely to either be the first time he shoots (possible but unlikely) or if he gasses late in the fight.

I'll be pretty surprised if I don't get more than half of my close to pickem fight bets on this card i'm expecting to go 5-3 or 6-2 a lot on them and would be disappointed to go 4-4 or less (JJ, Branch, Edgar, Maia, JDS, Alvarez, Skelly, Aguilar)

I've been playing the same exact picks with round and method of victory in three different fantasy leagues for a few years now- UFC Fantasy Pick 'Em game, Tapology and MMAPlayground. Over the long term 66% of correct picks seems to be the limit that is nearly impossible to ever beat long term. I don't see anyone better than that record who has a long participation streak on any of those sites. My career record since I started making picks for every fight on every UFC card on MMA Playground for example is 771 -452 or 63%. I actually won a risk free $500 prize from Tapology a couple of years ago for their annual fantasy game contest.

Based on this, I'd be shocked if someone or any system could pick 73% of fights correctly for a year or any long period of time as this is so far beyond anyone else's long term results. Of course betting is another story with odds and risk and returns, but if you're talking strict picks 66% seems to almost be a mathematical limit like the speed of light.

He revised his estimate to 65%. Still if 66% seems to be a ceiling, that's pretty solid. I wonder what percentage of betting favourites win if you could favourites of any size at closing Pinny line, I assume its in the low 60s?

Well, she may have not tested positive for anything as far as a specific substance, but her fail of the passport analysis shows that something unnatural was going on with her blood, and it wasn't explainable by normal fluctuations, disease, approved pharmaceuticals, etc.

Every fight on every card must be picked? else we could only pick big favorites. But even with every fight picked, there still will be variance in the matchmaking, some time periods the cards will have more unevenly matched fights, making picking a winner more easy and vice versa.

This card is way harder to pick then the last card, the last card I picked 12 out of 13 correct in a MMA' pick em, But last card had some huge favorites and overall was probably one of most easy cards to pick correct so far this year. But I would assume that even some years will be harder to pick than others, let alone a few months. So let's how that numbers stands up if the sample gets bigger

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Jéssica Andrade: My prediction for the fight is that Andrade follow in the footsteps of Joanna's last opponents and can score better in the first two rounds. Because the Brazilian does not have experience in five-round fights, it is very likely that Joanna can score better in the fourth and fifth rounds. It would be the third round to decide who will get the belt. That is when my bet happens. I think Andrade can win the first three rounds and take the belt home. She has enough cardio to fight well for three consecutive rounds and beat Joanna. In addition, there is the possibility of getting a knockdown or even a submission, since Joanna is usually thrown to the ground over three to four times in the first rounds. Andrade can get hold of Joanna on the grid, knockdown and manage to finalize the fight still in the beginning. Jéssica Andrade win (+135)

Full Text: http://thekingowlbetmma.blogspot.com...s-jessica.html

Weidmann vs Gastelum announced, I wonder at what age Weidmann will get parkinson.

Just degen underdog plays on AXS tonight:

CES MMA 44 Risk $160.00

Rey Trujillo (+300) vs Matt Bessette $40.00 for $120.00
Kevin Sears (+200) vs Greg Rebello $40.00 for $80.00
Jacob Bohn (+325) vs Sean Soriano $40.00 for $130.00
Jon Manley (+160) vs Manny Walo $40.00 for $64.00

no names mentioned but book makers emailing me bet cancelations several days after placing a fight not to go the distance bet with an already capped minuscule bet, is just not acceptable by any measure.

"There was a palpable error*with the Junior Dos Santos v Stipe Miocic*fight therefore we have voided all bets on these markets due to this error. "

If you place a trade in the Forex market can you contact the bank and say oh, there was a Palpable error.

When you interact with the public and confirm a transaction, that is it. The matter is closed.

Also this evening, book makers stating the greatest odds in the world, and then you go to try to place a bet and its limited to £50,

If you cant list odds correctly take your self out of the market, go and get your systems fixed including all odds being reviewed by a human before confirming back to the customer if required.

Odds checker need to state for a book maker to list with them, they have to have a policy of - min bet about - & adherence to any transaction completed.

Any way what ever,

Demian Maia v Jorge Masvidal
no @ 4/6 £120 wagered win £200

Thank you skybet for taking my bet and processing my Business as should be accepted.

Demian Maia v Jorge Masvidal
no @ 8/11 £50 (capped) wagered


I just cant see how this fight goes the distance, one mistake its over, Masvidal core is of the new generation, this is going to be some fight I am really looking forward to it big time.

I don't know what the fc is going to happen but if you put a gun to my head it would be Masvidal, spider sense during bet placement even thou going no distance was Masvidal.


Here is mma betting tips take on this fight. https://mmabettingtips.com/ufc-211-b...s-predictions/

Betting Tip 1: Jorge Masvidal to beat Demian Maia

Over the last 3 years I have bet against Demian Maia in 4 out of his last 7 fights for a total profit of 3.20 units. Everytime I bet against him it is for the same reason…

Demian Maia is masterful on the ground, but despite his ability to take his last 6 opponent’s down with relative ease, if you watch his offensive wrestling and takedowns you’ll see that he manages to complete takedowns moreso because his opponent’s become frozen with fear as opposed to good technique. In all my breakdowns over the last few years I have said that Demian Maia has poor offensive wrestling and I do stand by that. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 31% of all takedowns across 24 fights in the UFC. At the age of 39, his offensive wrestling isn’t going to be getting any better. Maia’s recent success has quite literally come from his opponent’s freezing and tensing up when he clinches with them. This is probably a direct result of them being terrified of being taken down. This has enabled him to execute lazy trips and takedowns that anyone with half decent takedown defence should be able to stop.
Jorge Masvidal’s takedown defence hasn’t been tested that much in recent years, but he has shown flashes of strong wrestling and he trains at American Top Team with some of the best fighters in the world. ATT fighters are well known for having excellent takedown defence and Maia’s style of offensive wrestling isn’t difficult to shut down or gameplan for. Masvidal’s relaxed, fluid and loose style of fighting suggests that he won’t react to Maia’s takedowns like a Rabbit caught in the headlights. Instead I expect him to stay calm, loose and shut down Maia’s relatively ineffective strategies of getting a fight to the ground.
I’m not saying this bet is totally risk free, because Masvidal is in big, big, big trouble if Maia gets him to the ground, but at almost pick em odds I believe there’s a good amount of value in betting on Masvidal to win based on the fact that Masvidal is very likely to be calm and composed enough to implement smart, strong and consistently technical takedown defence.
Reasons for placing this bet...


Jorge Masvidal is 8 years younger than Demian Maia. Maia is now 39 years old which means that he is well past his prime. The younger fighter wins around 65% of the time when there is an 8 year age gap in a fight. The advantage is even more significant when the older fighter is over the age of 33.

Demian Maia is an impossible challenge to overcome when he gets his opponent’s to the ground, but his takedowns and offensive wrestling is very poor. This is backed up by the fact that he has only successfully completed 31% of all takedown attempts across 24 fights in the UFC. Over the last few years his opponent’s have been paralyzed by the fear of being taken down, which has caused them to make very basic errors which have opened up the takedowns for Maia. Masvidal is a calm and calculated fighter. I do not believe he’ll panic and make these same mistakes.

Demian Maia has very poor cardio… Especially if you make him work hard for takedowns early on in a fight.

Jorge Masvidal has significantly better striking than Demian Maia.

Jorge Masvidal has a very relaxed, fluid and calm style of fighting. He is very comfortable in the Octagon. This looseness should make it for difficult for Maia to take him down.

Jorge Masvidal trains at American Top Team, which is one of the best MMA gyms in the world. His training partners are world class fighters such as Dustin Poirier, Krzystof Jotko, Will Brooks, Colby Covington, Santiago Ponzinibbio and many, many more.

Jorge Masvidal is extremely tough and well rounded. It’s unlikely that he will be phased if he gets put into difficult positions early on.

Jorge Masvidal’s primary training partner at ATT is Colby Covington. Covington has a high level NCAA Div 1 level wrestling pedigree. He is also a much stronger wrestler than Maia. Having a training partner like Covington will help Masvidal prepare for this fight.

Demian Maia is very predictable and easy to gameplan for when the fight is standing up. He doesn’t have the striking skills to setup his takedowns which means that Masvidal should see his takedown entries coming from a mile away. This should enable him to secure underhooks and put himself in strong positions to shut down the threat of being taken down.
Risk Factors...


Demian Maia will dominate this fight if he can consistently take Jorge Masvidal down.

Demian Maia is an unstoppable force on the ground.

Demian Maia has a size advantage over Jorge Masvidal.

Disagree that Magny, Laflare, Macdonald, Story, Nelson, Condit, Fitch were "frozen by fear."

"This is probably a direct result of them being terrified of being taken down. This has enabled him to execute lazy trips and takedowns that anyone with half decent takedown defence should be able to stop."

I also think that is a really stupid statement to make. This is the type of thing an armchair critics with no experience of grappling at all would make.

Not that saying Masvidal won't win but some of the logic used in that write up is silly.

agree





super interesting fight!

Erm... what?!? Am I missing something?

Going back to the start of 2014 (which is a bit more than than 3 years, but whatever) Maia is 6-1. The only fight he lost was the very first one in that period, to Rory McDonald. Rory opened as the $1.50 favourite in that fight and closed at $1.23 (history here)

I've gotta assume they bet Maia to win in the other three fights, and that's where the profit comes from. Because unless the units were all kinds of out of whack and they plowed some massive amount on Rory, there's no way they made a profit betting against Maia over that stretch.

In which case, what that sentence MEANS is pretty much the opposite to what you seem to be suggesting it means - betting on Maia to win has been profitable over that timespan.

I'm definitely up lifetime betting on Maia, i've bet on him way more than against him over the course of his career.

I think you're hugely underestimating Maia's BJJ-based takedowns and size advantage here, even in the fights he lost against Rory and Shields he dominated the first getting a takedown vs Rory who is a way better wrestler and way bigger than Masvidal and Shields is probably the second best grappler at WW after Maia. Guys like Story, Fitch and probably even Nelson and Laflare have better wrestling than Masvidal.

It's not a lock by any means, but Maia as a small dog is definitely value, the only way I would even consider backing off that statement regardless of tomorrow's result is if Masvidal wins a clear 30-27 standing stuffing all takedown attempts etc with ease which I think is unlikely. From memory Maia has secured a takedown in every fight since the Weidman fight which was on short notice, several years ago and Weidman is both bigger than Maia and a way better wrestler and the fight was at MW. I don't recall whether he took down Shields, but he definitely took every other fighter down and I think a lot of the Shields fight happened on the ground with Shields holding more top position overall from memory again without checking.

I honestly think the fight will look like a marginally less dominant version of the Condit fight. Masvidal may tag him once or twice and maybe stuff one takedown even if he's lucky, but I think at some point Maia will take him down in the first round and either submit him or beat him up, then do the same in the second and either the same again in the third or he'll be up two rounds and the only way he loses from there is if he gasses hard and gets finished hence the Masvidal r3 hedge I put on, but I think Maia is a solid favourite in this fight. Masvidal does have very good TDD, but I don't think he's ever faced a fighter as big as Maia with his technical BJJ-trip based takedowns. Masvidal will be as ready as he can possibly be, but I have a feeling Maia may just be too big and strong. Masvidal's best chance is for Maia to gas in the second round rather than the third if he gasses at all and i'm not sure his submission defense is good enough to survive a full round on the ground with Maia if he gets him there in the first minute - I mean Rory Mac stuffed his first attempt but failed to stuff his second and Rory is a WAY bigger fighter and better wrestler than Masvidal in theory isn't he?

Looks like some moderate steam aganst Aguilar, she did look kinda small at weigh ins, might make sense if she's clean now and was juicing previously as per Carla Esparza's accusation that she'd personally seen Aguilar taking PEDs. Kinda regret that bet with the size difference. Overall the market seems to hate my picks this card, Joanna is the only spot i'm in super good vs current price, the rest i'm at about the current price or slightly worse in a few cases. At the end of the day Maia will make or break my card though.

Size advantage?

You are under-estimating Masvidal's wrestling imo.

I like Maia for a lot of the reasons posted but I'm really surprised Edgar is only -130

He hasn't lost at featherweight besides Aldo, seems elusive enough to avoid being kicked in the head and could even use his wrestling against Yair.

It just seems like a huge jump in comp for Yair who is used to just being able to physically dominate his opponents and laugh at their striking.

I have never put my predictions on here but will for the heck of it.

Dustin Poirier
Dustin by TKO
Jorge Masvidal
Jorge by TKO
Yair Rodriguez
Yair by DEC
Joanna Jerdrzejcek
Joanna by Dec
Joanna by KO R3/4/5
Jessica by KO R1/2
Stipe Miocic
Stipe KO R1
Stipe KO R2

small sweats
Rashad Coulter
Jessica Aguilar
Marco Polo
David Branch
Jason Knight

Good luck betting!