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Old Yesterday, 02:51 PM   #41751
JimGunn
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Diaz View Post
How is everyone doing so far in 2017?

I'm trending towards one of my better years (2014 was pretty epic so gonna be hard to beat) in MMA betting after having a really bad past 2 years.
I'm off to a good start and up about 45 units or $4500 for 2017 but it's almost all from boxing as I'm down on UFC, up on Bellator and about even on miscellaneous other MMA wagering. I've been hitting huge underdog after huge underdog in a year filled with massive boxing upsets almost every weekend. It's made me put a lot more focus on watching boxing, listening to boxing podcasts and paying attention to the often lopsided odds on upcoming boxing matches.
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Old Yesterday, 06:49 PM   #41752
CheckN0rris
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post

Chris Weidman is not an underdog to Gegard Mousasi who might be the most overrated fighter in MW history.
Wow that's the first time I hear that, seems that most people think exactly the opposite and say Mousasi is highly underrated and flies under the radar. I'm sure that with the big public he is underrated and not well known, despite his impressive record. But maybe he is overrated with the hardcore fans and bookies, not sure about that. The most overrated fighter in MW history is a far stretch IMO. If I had the to choose I would say he is underrated and underestimated.

From both fighters I would argue that Weidman is the overrated one, I think I said that before in this thread, when picking Romero over him. Weidman winning the belt and defending it against, Silva, Machida, Belfort is not that impressive as we we all thought it was given the current info we have.

Having said that, I might end up betting Weidman by decision. since I think it will be a close fight, where Weidman's pressure and maybe a few TD's could edge him the decision with the judges.

Regarding the MW division and the contenders waiting in line, I think some of them might be wise moving up to LHW wich is a more shallow division and is lacking contenders. I think Romero would do pretty well in LHW, he also matches up pretty good against the champ. Same for Jacare IMO. Although they might want to wait for their shot at MW first, since they are so close, but if they lose the title fight, a move up might be a wise option?
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Old Yesterday, 08:41 PM   #41753
SuperMario7
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Re: MMA Thread

Didn't Mousasi make Fedor tap, Fedor the greatest of all time?
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Old Yesterday, 09:07 PM   #41754
CheckN0rris
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Re: MMA Thread

No they where scheduled to fight, but bout got cancelled. They ended up becoming friends and training partners for a while. Mousasi is ''just'' 31 and currently peaking but he has so much experience. He DID tap Mark Hunt, pretty crazy that he fought against Heavyweights! he also has wins over current UFC top 10 LHW fighters; Ilir Latifi and OSP. Most people don't know this and that he is 41-6. That's why I think he is way more likely to be underrated than overrated. Take a look at his record, it's pretty impressive if you ask me.
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Old Yesterday, 09:10 PM   #41755
ItsOnlyChips
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by SuperMario7 View Post
Didn't Mousasi make Fedor tap, Fedor the greatest of all time?
that was Werdum
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Old Yesterday, 09:22 PM   #41756
SuperMario7
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Re: MMA Thread

I remember them fighting, Fedor made Mousasi tap, my bad!
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Old Yesterday, 09:23 PM   #41757
SuperMario7
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Re: MMA Thread

He made Manhoef tap, I remember now.
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Old Today, 03:02 AM   #41758
SwoopAE
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Re: MMA Thread

I have taken a look at his record and while he's a very impressive fighter and I do think he's probably the 5th or 6th best MW right now, I just don't think he's a favourite against Chris Weidman and would go as far as to say it's a nightmare matchup for him as long as Weidman is still the same fighter I think he is.

A few points

1) Chris Weidman would easily beat Ilir Latifi (punchers chance only, and Mousasi lost to a puncher's chance spot vs Hall, Weidman has never been caught in a punchers chance spot) and OSP (there is no chance OSP could stop his takedowns and Weidman would outbox him anyway)

2) What top 5 fighters has Mousasi actually beaten? He got a yes, skilled, but puncher's chance/fluke style upkick KO win vs Jacare and was soundly beaten in the rematch, he beat Mark Hunt in Dream but that was when Hunt had no ground game and was coming off 4 losses and wasn't a top fighter even though he's a legit HW. Babalu wouldn't have been top 5 at the time. He lost to Machida. OSP wasn't top 5 at the time and hasn't been at any stage probably. He did beat Hector Lombard, but that was before Lombard went on his dominant run.

3) In all seriousness I would expect Chris Weidman to be 46-3 or so on average against Mousasi's opponents. He beat Machida at around the same time period. Let's say he goes 1-1 vs Jacare on average or even 0-2 (i'd say 1-1 is fair). He loses to no ground game Hunt via strikes say half the time. Lombard has a puncher's chance against him if he can hurt him in the first, so let's say one loss to a Lombard or a Hunt. One to Jacare. I guess past his prime Hendo might have a puncher's chance and same with past his prime Belfort. Machida is obviously live, but Weidman beat him at around the same time he beat Mousasi. I guess OSP and Hall have a puncher's chance too but Weidman beat Hall and while Mousasi did the same and would win most fights between them, he got caught by him the first time.

I'm struggling to find 4 losses for Chris Weidman in Mousasi's record fighting all of them let alone 6.

4) Look at Mousasi's losses. Hall (puncher's chance). King Mo (talented offensive wrestler like Weidman, only with ****ty striking). Machida, who outstrike Mousasi soundly, and was narrowly outstruck by Weidman in his next fight. Jacare, talented offensive grappler like Weidman with better offensive subs but slightly worse wrestling pedigree with striking good enough to hang on the feet like Weidman, and then two fairly irrelevant losses against weaker fighters early in his career.

Let's look at Weidman's wins and losses for a moment

2x Anderson - tail end of Anderson's prime, but he was still the champ. Anderson couldn't land a big shot on him standing in two fights, at no point did he even rock Weidman. Caught Anderson showboating once for the KO after taking him down and dominating him for a round, fluke leg break in second fight although Weidman was winning the fight at the point the injury happened and wasn't in trouble at any point.

1x Prime Machida - again, tail end of his prime but he was coming off a competitive but very clear decision win over Mousasi in the previous fight. Didn't even use his grappling much and just outstruck him for the most part. Close and competitive fight, but won the striking and Mousasi lost it vs Machida, in large part due to Weidman's cage cutting strength.

1x Belfort - Past his prime, similar spot to Mousasi's win over him, Belfort went for the early flurry, landed a couple shots but Weidman defended well, then was quickly taken down and pounded out.

1x Munoz - they both have wins over Munoz, not overly relevant

1x Maia - short notice for Maia and Weidman has a size advantage, but Maia is basically the best BJJ guy in MMA, only Maia couldn't get him down so that wasn't at all relevant.

1x Hall - before Hall's prime, not overly relevant but it's another mutual opponent besides Machida that Weidman performed better than Mousasi against. Belfort and Munoz are basically a tie, as both Weidman and Mousasi won both fights pretty easily from memory.

Now let's look at Weidman's losses. Close standup fight vs Luke Rockhold, Weidman won the first standing, lost the second standing, was winning the third standing then made a mistake going for the spinning thing and got taken down and dominated from there. Mousasi is not going to be taking Weidman down in this fight, if anyone gets a takedown, it'll be Weidman over 90% of the time.

Second loss, wins first round vs Romero loses second round. Telegraphs a takedown in r3 and gets caught with a flying knee. This is more relevant as Mousasi could catch him shooting in, but there are a few things Romero does better than Mousasi that are relevant here - first, Romero's TDD and wrestling pedigree is miles better than Mousasi's, he's only been outwrestled by Derek Brunson who is top 10 but not top 5 when he was a bit less experienced in MMA and he still came back to win that fight. Second, Romero has more raw power (although worse technique) than Mousasi. That said, Romero hung with Machida on the feet too trading close rounds until he finished him, and Mousasi from memory went down 1-4 in a standup fight in rounds to Machida, so I can't be 100% sure that Romero's technique is worse than Mousasi's even though it seems obvious - more likely, Romero has the offensive takedown threat and Mousasi doesn't against guys with decent TDD which means that

At the end of the day it comes down to this - do you think Chris Weidman can and will put Gegard Mousasi on his back? If so, he has to be a huge favourite in a 3 round fight as his top control and submission game is good enough not to get swept or submitted, and he's a big favourite to win any round he lands a takedown in.

On the feet it's not as clear cut as one would imagine with Mousasi having the edge, because against a mutual top 5 at the time opponent Weidman actually did better than Mousasi standing (Machida) and Mousasi will have to be careful not to expose himself to being taken down which takes away a lot of his kicking game, whereas Weidman can throw whatever he wants (except for spinning stuff) without risking being taken down.

There's a good chance USADA had an impact on Weidman and I recognise that, but at the same time there's a good chance pre-Zuffa Mousasi could have been taking something too and his best wins (Jacare and Hunt and I guess OSP in Strikeforce) were pre UFC.

This post got way too long but basically, Chris Weidman has more ways to win this fight and he's the underdog. If it goes to the mat, Weidman will have top position most of the time. If it stays standing, Weidman is free to use his whole arsenal and Mousasi has to be careful not to throw too many kicks or he'll get taken down - or if he does use his full striking arsenal which likely gives him a small edge in the standup, he exposes himself to being taken down at a higher frequency.

I don't think any of the top four contenders at MW is an underdog to Mousasi. I'm not even sure he'd be a favourite over current Anderson Silva. He'd probably be a fav over Bisping and Whittaker due to the stylistic matchup but I think he goes 2-5 on average against the top 7 other fighters at MW or maybe 3-4 if he beats Anderson standing.

TL;DR i'm completely convinced that Weidman is a moderate favourite here and this is a stylistic nightmare for Mousasi, who is also slightly overrated.
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Old Today, 05:19 AM   #41759
CheckN0rris
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Re: MMA Thread

Good stuff SwoopAE, appreciate the detailed response.

I was just taking a stance against you calling him the most overrated fighter in MW history, wich seemed to be a huge exaggeration. Did not disagree with your bet and why you think it's good bet. But it seems you'v come around a bit since you do give him some props and rate him top 6, wich seems fair and in line with current standings, and also now only call him 'slightly' overrated, wich I can understand, especially for this matchup.

I do agree that Weidman will be a bad and though matchup for Mousasi, I dont agree that Weidman would go 46-3 vs Mousasi's opponents, No way! you know how extremely hard it is in MMA to fight that many times and loose so little, I'ts still cage fighting, and that would mean Weidman would needed to be 90% favorite against everyone on that list that would mean he would still lose 4-5 fights. It's more likely that he would be a lesser favorite and I think he could easily have lost 10 fights, that would still mean he was 80/20 favorite on average during the fights.

Also it's not fair to compare current Weidman and compare how he would do against Mousasi's previous opponent where Mousasi was fighting them as a young kid, not nearly as good as he is now. You cant assume everyone was bad during that time , Mousasi was also relatively bad during that time, compared to now. That's a huge reason why people claim Mousasi is underrated and think he is so good since he WAS fighting all the more experienced and bigger guys when he was in his early twenties and was dominating most fights.

That's the issue with MMA math anyway, and comparing fighters from different times in history. Like Weidman was fighting/training during that time I assume, so that version of Weidman would probably be an underdog against quite a few fighters on that list.

In the end I think Mousasi is a legit great MW fighter (top 5), with an impressive record to back it up. And is slowly getting recognized by the bigger public as a great fighter.
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