I'm off to a good start and up about 45 units or $4500 for 2017 but it's almost all from boxing as I'm down on UFC, up on Bellator and about even on miscellaneous other MMA wagering. I've been hitting huge underdog after huge underdog in a year filled with massive boxing upsets almost every weekend. It's made me put a lot more focus on watching boxing, listening to boxing podcasts and paying attention to the often lopsided odds on upcoming boxing matches.

Wow that's the first time I hear that, seems that most people think exactly the opposite and say Mousasi is highly underrated and flies under the radar. I'm sure that with the big public he is underrated and not well known, despite his impressive record. But maybe he is overrated with the hardcore fans and bookies, not sure about that. The most overrated fighter in MW history is a far stretch IMO. If I had the to choose I would say he is underrated and underestimated.

From both fighters I would argue that Weidman is the overrated one, I think I said that before in this thread, when picking Romero over him. Weidman winning the belt and defending it against, Silva, Machida, Belfort is not that impressive as we we all thought it was given the current info we have.

Having said that, I might end up betting Weidman by decision. since I think it will be a close fight, where Weidman's pressure and maybe a few TD's could edge him the decision with the judges.

Regarding the MW division and the contenders waiting in line, I think some of them might be wise moving up to LHW wich is a more shallow division and is lacking contenders. I think Romero would do pretty well in LHW, he also matches up pretty good against the champ. Same for Jacare IMO. Although they might want to wait for their shot at MW first, since they are so close, but if they lose the title fight, a move up might be a wise option?

Didn't Mousasi make Fedor tap, Fedor the greatest of all time?

No they where scheduled to fight, but bout got cancelled. They ended up becoming friends and training partners for a while. Mousasi is ''just'' 31 and currently peaking but he has so much experience. He DID tap Mark Hunt, pretty crazy that he fought against Heavyweights! he also has wins over current UFC top 10 LHW fighters; Ilir Latifi and OSP. Most people don't know this and that he is 41-6. That's why I think he is way more likely to be underrated than overrated. Take a look at his record, it's pretty impressive if you ask me.

that was Werdum

I remember them fighting, Fedor made Mousasi tap, my bad!

He made Manhoef tap, I remember now.

I have taken a look at his record and while he's a very impressive fighter and I do think he's probably the 5th or 6th best MW right now, I just don't think he's a favourite against Chris Weidman and would go as far as to say it's a nightmare matchup for him as long as Weidman is still the same fighter I think he is.

A few points

1) Chris Weidman would easily beat Ilir Latifi (punchers chance only, and Mousasi lost to a puncher's chance spot vs Hall, Weidman has never been caught in a punchers chance spot) and OSP (there is no chance OSP could stop his takedowns and Weidman would outbox him anyway)

2) What top 5 fighters has Mousasi actually beaten? He got a yes, skilled, but puncher's chance/fluke style upkick KO win vs Jacare and was soundly beaten in the rematch, he beat Mark Hunt in Dream but that was when Hunt had no ground game and was coming off 4 losses and wasn't a top fighter even though he's a legit HW. Babalu wouldn't have been top 5 at the time. He lost to Machida. OSP wasn't top 5 at the time and hasn't been at any stage probably. He did beat Hector Lombard, but that was before Lombard went on his dominant run.

3) In all seriousness I would expect Chris Weidman to be 46-3 or so on average against Mousasi's opponents. He beat Machida at around the same time period. Let's say he goes 1-1 vs Jacare on average or even 0-2 (i'd say 1-1 is fair). He loses to no ground game Hunt via strikes say half the time. Lombard has a puncher's chance against him if he can hurt him in the first, so let's say one loss to a Lombard or a Hunt. One to Jacare. I guess past his prime Hendo might have a puncher's chance and same with past his prime Belfort. Machida is obviously live, but Weidman beat him at around the same time he beat Mousasi. I guess OSP and Hall have a puncher's chance too but Weidman beat Hall and while Mousasi did the same and would win most fights between them, he got caught by him the first time.

I'm struggling to find 4 losses for Chris Weidman in Mousasi's record fighting all of them let alone 6.

4) Look at Mousasi's losses. Hall (puncher's chance). King Mo (talented offensive wrestler like Weidman, only with ****ty striking). Machida, who outstrike Mousasi soundly, and was narrowly outstruck by Weidman in his next fight. Jacare, talented offensive grappler like Weidman with better offensive subs but slightly worse wrestling pedigree with striking good enough to hang on the feet like Weidman, and then two fairly irrelevant losses against weaker fighters early in his career.

Let's look at Weidman's wins and losses for a moment

2x Anderson - tail end of Anderson's prime, but he was still the champ. Anderson couldn't land a big shot on him standing in two fights, at no point did he even rock Weidman. Caught Anderson showboating once for the KO after taking him down and dominating him for a round, fluke leg break in second fight although Weidman was winning the fight at the point the injury happened and wasn't in trouble at any point.

1x Prime Machida - again, tail end of his prime but he was coming off a competitive but very clear decision win over Mousasi in the previous fight. Didn't even use his grappling much and just outstruck him for the most part. Close and competitive fight, but won the striking and Mousasi lost it vs Machida, in large part due to Weidman's cage cutting strength.

1x Belfort - Past his prime, similar spot to Mousasi's win over him, Belfort went for the early flurry, landed a couple shots but Weidman defended well, then was quickly taken down and pounded out.

1x Munoz - they both have wins over Munoz, not overly relevant

1x Maia - short notice for Maia and Weidman has a size advantage, but Maia is basically the best BJJ guy in MMA, only Maia couldn't get him down so that wasn't at all relevant.

1x Hall - before Hall's prime, not overly relevant but it's another mutual opponent besides Machida that Weidman performed better than Mousasi against. Belfort and Munoz are basically a tie, as both Weidman and Mousasi won both fights pretty easily from memory.

Now let's look at Weidman's losses. Close standup fight vs Luke Rockhold, Weidman won the first standing, lost the second standing, was winning the third standing then made a mistake going for the spinning thing and got taken down and dominated from there. Mousasi is not going to be taking Weidman down in this fight, if anyone gets a takedown, it'll be Weidman over 90% of the time.

Second loss, wins first round vs Romero loses second round. Telegraphs a takedown in r3 and gets caught with a flying knee. This is more relevant as Mousasi could catch him shooting in, but there are a few things Romero does better than Mousasi that are relevant here - first, Romero's TDD and wrestling pedigree is miles better than Mousasi's, he's only been outwrestled by Derek Brunson who is top 10 but not top 5 when he was a bit less experienced in MMA and he still came back to win that fight. Second, Romero has more raw power (although worse technique) than Mousasi. That said, Romero hung with Machida on the feet too trading close rounds until he finished him, and Mousasi from memory went down 1-4 in a standup fight in rounds to Machida, so I can't be 100% sure that Romero's technique is worse than Mousasi's even though it seems obvious - more likely, Romero has the offensive takedown threat and Mousasi doesn't against guys with decent TDD which means that

At the end of the day it comes down to this - do you think Chris Weidman can and will put Gegard Mousasi on his back? If so, he has to be a huge favourite in a 3 round fight as his top control and submission game is good enough not to get swept or submitted, and he's a big favourite to win any round he lands a takedown in.

On the feet it's not as clear cut as one would imagine with Mousasi having the edge, because against a mutual top 5 at the time opponent Weidman actually did better than Mousasi standing (Machida) and Mousasi will have to be careful not to expose himself to being taken down which takes away a lot of his kicking game, whereas Weidman can throw whatever he wants (except for spinning stuff) without risking being taken down.

There's a good chance USADA had an impact on Weidman and I recognise that, but at the same time there's a good chance pre-Zuffa Mousasi could have been taking something too and his best wins (Jacare and Hunt and I guess OSP in Strikeforce) were pre UFC.

This post got way too long but basically, Chris Weidman has more ways to win this fight and he's the underdog. If it goes to the mat, Weidman will have top position most of the time. If it stays standing, Weidman is free to use his whole arsenal and Mousasi has to be careful not to throw too many kicks or he'll get taken down - or if he does use his full striking arsenal which likely gives him a small edge in the standup, he exposes himself to being taken down at a higher frequency.

I don't think any of the top four contenders at MW is an underdog to Mousasi. I'm not even sure he'd be a favourite over current Anderson Silva. He'd probably be a fav over Bisping and Whittaker due to the stylistic matchup but I think he goes 2-5 on average against the top 7 other fighters at MW or maybe 3-4 if he beats Anderson standing.

TL;DR i'm completely convinced that Weidman is a moderate favourite here and this is a stylistic nightmare for Mousasi, who is also slightly overrated.

Good stuff SwoopAE, appreciate the detailed response.

I was just taking a stance against you calling him the most overrated fighter in MW history, wich seemed to be a huge exaggeration. Did not disagree with your bet and why you think it's good bet. But it seems you'v come around a bit since you do give him some props and rate him top 6, wich seems fair and in line with current standings, and also now only call him 'slightly' overrated, wich I can understand, especially for this matchup.

I do agree that Weidman will be a bad and though matchup for Mousasi, I dont agree that Weidman would go 46-3 vs Mousasi's opponents, No way! you know how extremely hard it is in MMA to fight that many times and loose so little, I'ts still cage fighting, and that would mean Weidman would needed to be 90% favorite against everyone on that list that would mean he would still lose 4-5 fights. It's more likely that he would be a lesser favorite and I think he could easily have lost 10 fights, that would still mean he was 80/20 favorite on average during the fights.

Also it's not fair to compare current Weidman and compare how he would do against Mousasi's previous opponent where Mousasi was fighting them as a young kid, not nearly as good as he is now. You cant assume everyone was bad during that time , Mousasi was also relatively bad during that time, compared to now. That's a huge reason why people claim Mousasi is underrated and think he is so good since he WAS fighting all the more experienced and bigger guys when he was in his early twenties and was dominating most fights.

That's the issue with MMA math anyway, and comparing fighters from different times in history. Like Weidman was fighting/training during that time I assume, so that version of Weidman would probably be an underdog against quite a few fighters on that list.

In the end I think Mousasi is a legit great MW fighter (top 5), with an impressive record to back it up. And is slowly getting recognized by the bigger public as a great fighter.

Yup good points made, I was not disagreeing with you but rather trying to get a full picture in case you had missed something. Also I did not agree with Mousasi being over-rated, but rather like Norris says he's mostly under-rated. He has a ton of experience, yet he is the type that does not get much attention thus we barely even know he fights at MW.

I think it's a close spot, the problem is Weidman, I feel he should be making more use of his wrestling, will he be taking him down?

What's Mousasi's TDD like vs a guy like Weidman? If we know for a fact that Weidman going for TD's and that he gets them, I'd 100% favor Weidman.

Mousasi is a kickboxer, just like Rockhold, Luke beat Weidman so something to keep in mind.

Rockhold is definitely bigger and stronger than Mousasi, case in point Jacare could take Mousasi down in both fights from memory (I don't recall seeing the first fight actually but given Mousasi won via upkick he has to have been taken down, and he was taken down in the second) and I don't recall Jacare having much success with takedowns against Rockhold but that fight was a long time ago. According to the sherdog recap he was stuffed multiple times and got one takedown on Rockhold by the look of things but

Just through analysing mutual opponents, I think it's pretty clear Rockhold has better defensive wrestling than Mousasi. Didn't Mousasi get beaten by King Mo as well who is basically a LnP wrestler with bad striking? Mo isn't on Weidman's level either, although he is slightly larger.

The reason Rockhold beat Weidman is that Weidman made a mistake standing and got taken down himself; the fight was close up until that and I can't see Mousasi having the offensive wrestling to take Weidman down and maintain top position very easily, it's a much bigger concern for Mousasi that if he opens himself up striking he will get taken down.

Surely Weidman has to be coming out to fight for a win at any costs he, a win and he's right back in the mix in the top 5 and probably only 2 wins away from a title shot, a loss and he's barely considered top 10 anymore. If that means a boring wrestling based decision win he should be more than happy with that. I mean i've been disappointed before, but Weidman took down Belfort and Anderson pretty quickly in both fights and the only striker he ended up mostly striking with was Machida and Machida both has better TDD than Mousasi and Weidman was outstriking him anyway enroute to a decision victory so didn't need the takedown.


I think Weidman probably beats Jacare, probably beats Bisping and would struggle most with Rockhold (coinflip style fight imo maybe leaning Rockhold as I think it was close until Weidman made a mistake in the first fight) and otherwise Romero is the toughest matchup for him and that fight was also close until the flying knee in r3 when it was a round each. Whittaker might also be a toughish matchup for him (and Whittaker is actually a better MU for Mousasi than Weidman due to style imo, he's one of the few fighters I think Mousasi has a better chance against than Weidman probably)

Thought Bellator odds would be out by now.
Hoping to get King Mo at around evens.

I agree that Weidman is the side I would take. Mousasi hasn't performed as well against top level guys. Jacare ran through him pretty easily and Machida out struck relatively easy from what I remember. Suppose the biggest question is how Weidman comes back from a brutal KO.

Anyone else got thoughts on Maia being value against Masvidal (or liking the other side)? Maia currently -119 on Pinny. I have a pile at -118. Pretty much a pure Striker vs Grappler match and I like Maia against anyone who doesn't have best of the best level TDD. Masvidal's is good, but Maia is pretty strong and effective at getting takedowns at WW.

Cejudo should be value around -250 vs Sergio Pettis too right? Just went to a close decision with Benavidez, will have an insane wrestling edge and can hang on the feet. Surely this ends with Cejudo taking Pettis down at will and dominating him right?

Still waiting on the Usman opening line too.

Edgar is tempting at -18x vs Yair, not sure whether Yair is improving really rapidly or BJ Penn is just that bad now. Kinda want to stay away as Edgar should be declining sometime in the next few years and Rodriguez is a legit prospect, but it feels like Frankie is better at everything except kicks and maybe power still right? He beat Jeremy Stephens injured and has only ever been outclassed by Jose Aldo and even then the first fight was close (second one not so much)

Still waiting for props for 210, hoping to get Rumble winsby tko in r1 and Cormier wins in r2-4 (or wins by sub in those rounds) at decent prices, especially rounds 3 and 4.

Thinking about getting on Joanna especially if she dips under -150 again, Andrade is legit but I just don't see anyone outstriking Joanna over 5 rounds, she has so much heart. If anyone beats her it'll be Gadelha with better cardio. Despite JJ being 2-0 the fights were so close I still want to see a trilogy fight if Gadelha can get another top 5 win or two - other than the Rose/Waterson winner and Andrade, Gadelha will be back to being next in line after those two fights for JJ. It's definitely a tough fight, but I still think Joanna might win two thirds of the time or so against Andrade.

JDS at +162 is pretty tempting against Miocic too. It's a great matchup for both guys, I do think Stipe is a tiny favourite as he is more in his prime of the two, but I do think at his best JDS has the better striking and it's likely to be contested standing.

I can't help but think Aldo is value against Holloway too but I really want Holloway to win so might not end up betting it.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy and we have a nice run of cards over the next few months

I'll be on King Mo at evens or better over Rampage for Bellator 175 this Friday evening. Also throwing a few bucks on the draw for that fight after recalling how the first one played out.

@Jim. Makes sense regarding Weidman, you have convinced me anyway. At first you think Mousasi has the edge because of the standup and experience but once you factor in Weidman's own stand up and his wrestling, and the fact that Mousasi is not going to TD Weidman but his very prone to get taken down himself and lose rounds that way, it becomes a Weidman.

Having said all that I do still think it's rather closish but that's just the MMA noob in me. You're going pretty big here, so that must make you think that it not a coinflip fight, but rather Weidman win 2 out 3 or even 3 out of 4?

I remember Maja fighting Anderson and the way Maja was trying for takedowns was just pathetic, he could obviously not stand and trade with Anderson but his TD attempts were terrible, the fight as a whole for him was terrible. So has he gotten any better? Has his striking improved enough? Especially to stand with a guy like Masvidal?



But when I seen the Maja v Gunnar fight, Maja was just all over Gunnar, I mean Gunnar looked terrible, and Gunnar is a great fighter, so I am not sure. Gunnar was not able to stop any TD's but he was also not able to hurt Maja at all, I mean if you can push high enough pace and kinda give Maja something to think about i.e with punches to the face, he becomes less powerful and slower.

Does Masvidal have good TDD? How is he once on the floor, I think it does not matter that much as I have not seen anyone match Maja on the ground.

I think Maja has improved in the striking department but I don't think he can stand with Masvidal, however he only needs to stand until he get a TD and then I guess it's pretty much all over. I mean once he starts grinding on Masvidal, those TDD attempts, those clinches up on the cage, making him carry his weight constantly, Masvidal is going to tire and I think become slower and more transparent.

Maja's game plan is always to wear his opponent down instantly with his BJJ.

So unless Masvidal has some high level TDD, I think Maja will grind on him until he submits him!

I really do not see Aldo losing either.

I'm seeing value on JJ Champion even at -160

The Maia vs Anderson fight was a LONG time ago when Anderson was in his prime. Since then he's has 16 fights. That was literally half his career ago.

By my count he's got at least one takedown in 10 of his last 11 fights (Shields being the 11th) and from memory he had some success in a close fight on the ground in that fight anyway. He might have taken down Shields too I forget, the last fight where he had no success on the ground was... Chris Weidman. He's also won every fight in those last 11 where he's completed a takedown except Rory Mac and from memory he dominated that fight early then gassed and Rory took over.

Added 3u on Joanna -150 got matched for a bit on Matchbook. Got an offer for a few more units up there too as well as an offer trying to get a few units on Cejudo at -234, i'll happily take -250 there if I have to but just leaving a price up with the best Pettis side available anywhere in case anyone matches it. I think the standup is close but Cejudo will take Pettis down at will and I don't see Pettis winning unless he finishes basically and it's 125. Plus there's a BIG skill gap between MM and JB/Cejudo which in turn is a big skill gap to the next best fighter in the division (Reis? Horiguchi? Borg? Idk)

I just think Joanna is over 60% to retain against any woman at 115, including Rose/KH/Gadelha/Andrade/etc. and if the price moves against i'll happily add more, or it could just close at -180, no idea.

Andrade and Gadelha are definitely the two biggest threats to Joanna (Waterson is probably next) but she's just a favourite over anyone standing and she has insane heart and cardio, I think Andrade has to knock her out or lie on top of her for 3+ rounds to win because I don't think Andrade or anyone can outpoint Joanna standing in a 5 rounder.

Such a shame to see Horiguchi leave UFC. I mean he went 5 rounds with MM and Cejudo got finished inside 1st round, so would be strange to say Cejudo is better than Horiguchi (also Horiguchi's record is better than Cejudo's imo).

against MM sure, because MM has the TDD to deal with Cejudo's wrestling. I'd say Cejudo probably beats more of the division though - it's hard to say the only other contender Horiguchi faced was post-steroids Bagautinov, other than that he didn't have any top ten wins unless you count Camus or Gaudinot as top 10 which might have been the case at the time but it's not like it's a deep division.

Cejudo took Benavidez to a 50/50 decision and beat Formiga although from memory it was close and then Camus as well and Cariaso, although it was well past the days of Cariaso being considered a contender as well.

It's a shame they didn't re-sign Horiguchi, he could have had some fun fights with guys like Benavidez/Pettis etc

Joanna back in to -155 now, so got 5u on her at -150 that got matched, that should do from now. Will add more if she gets in to -140 or better and otherwise leave it I think

Also added 1u more on Maia. Weidman +115 on 5dimes now, going to leave it for now but if he gets to like +130 and looks good at weigh ins I may add more.

I locked 1.55u to win 1u on JJ @ 5D

-155 too good to pass imo

I finally have access to bettng on Mo and he is over -200

evens was a huge gift. I was all over that too, oh well.

I missed it too by like 20 minutes and already at -215 (from -160 opening)

Decisions , decisions...

Back down to -200

Ok I'm in: King Mo 4u to win 2u

I think Rampage looks huge, and I don't say that in a good way. He is not motivated one bit, looks heavy. He will probably come in around 240 lbs. and no cardio.

I think King Mo takes him down 3x for an easy 30-27 decision.