I am ashamed of myself for losing faith and switching.

it was a good switch, just a tactical error by dariush, it seemed unnecessary to go for a takedown like that. More luck than anything, Barboza looked very tired as well.

Dariush had an opening to angle shoot and take his time to recover after getting kicked in the balls, props to him for not doing that. Definitely would've helped with his gameplan.

Gastelum ITD (-250). 5u to win 2u

shogun is still a bad arse isn't it. his fists came alive in the cage tonight, movie fighting right there imo

I couldn't believe how many times he had to punch Villante on the head to get that KO.

liking the victor.b by KO in the 1st here, those that bet it I salute you.

I think it will most likely take Kelvin a little while to stop Vitor if Vitor doesn't get the round 1 KO.

Added: Vitor Belfort/Kelvin Gastelum Over 1½ (+107) $100.00 for $107.00

Belfort looks huge, he is a physical specimen, a cannon ready to go off.

Kelvin's speed was too much. I had the KO prop, but thought we'd see round 2 at least.

Belfort looked really old and slow. Great night up 2.5u

Pretty good year so far. Congrats to all that made that $$

^ I thought Vitor looked great (as in way better than expected) in this fight.

belfort still looked dangerous but gastelums chin is made out of stone, he should do a headbutting contest with lineker.

Hmmm. Bet365 have somehow graded that 'Kelvin Gastelum to win by KO/TKO/DQ or decision' double chance prop wrongly. They should change it within an hour...they're usually good like that.

EDIT: Graded the bet correctly within 15 minutes! Hoorah! Well done everybody!

Tell me you don't hit the "Cash Out" feature at any point.

Easy money. They fixed the misgrade pretty quickly which was good. Annoyingly my Khabib/Ferguson bets are tied up for 30 days even though I told support its literally impossible for the fight to take place by then (it would have to be on the UK card)

That Gastelum prop saved my night, got back to about even after winning the last three after going 0-3 to start.

Vitor needs to go back to fighting non top 15 fighters or retire at this point, without TRT he just doesn't have durability anymore. His offense is still dangerous but he can't take a punch anymore and his cardio is gone. I think they should match him up with guys like Camozzi or Marshman or Cedenblad if he's going to keep fighting, guys who are definitely top 40 but nowhere near top 15.

If he insists on fighting legends he has to fight Rashad next as at least that way one of them will get a 'name' win to retain some of their mostly gone star power. I can't think of any other name fighter he would have a chance against after the first few minutes. Maybe Nate Marquardt?

Not at all excited about the next card, couple of ok fights but nothing that seems must see. 210 has a decent amount of 'okay' fights as well as the main and co-main. Going to probably go big on Weidman there as I previously said but the card doesn't look super exciting. I'm actually more interested in UFC 210, Whittaker vs Jacare should be great and Rose vs Waterson is pretty much the best WSW fight I can think of.

211 looks amazing though

Miocic vs JDS
JJ vs Andrade
Edgar vs Rodriguez
Maia vs Masvidal
Alvarez vs Poirier

Pettis vs Cejudo (Poor Sergio does NOT have the TDD for this)
Branch vs Jotko
Skelly vs Knight
Vick vs Reyes

I mean the undercard is better than most of the main cards we get in Australia and the main card looks like it'll keep up the 'odd numbered cards are amazing on paper' streak we have of 205/207/209/211 and with 213 being the Vegas Summer card it'll be huge too - 3 cards in that weekend, but they will have the following fights to work with if no injuries - assuming they want Cody vs TJ on PPV and not headlining the finale they could do something like this for 213 or if Conor is back put the Woodley fight on 214 and break the PPV record with Conor, GSP and a BW grudge match and 3 title fights plus HW #1 contender and a likely amazing WW fight.

Even without Conor this is what 213 could look like.

GSP vs Bisping (MW title)
Cody vs TJ (BW title)
Woodley vs Maia/Masvidal winner (WW title)
Overeem vs Cain or Werdum for the next shot at Stipe/JDS winner
Robbie Lawler vs Wonderboy

Alternatively they could put Nick or Nate Diaz on against anyone in the top 10 of their choice or a whole bunch of other possibilities. Timing wise it also sets GSP up for an immediate WW title shot around UFC 217ish win or lose as he'll have fought on the same day as the WW champ. They can do Romero vs Jacare/Whittaker winner for an interim MW belt if GSP wants to go after two belts and if he wins the MW belt, despite it sucking for the MW division if he doesn't immediately defend it he's GSP so do what sells and he can either vacate MW if he wins WW or defend after the WW title fight. If Bisping wins he fights Romero on 215 or whatever like he said and GSP can fight for the WW belt or do the Anderson superfight if he stays at MW

Then they have the WFW and WBW titles for the TUF finale and fight night card (do Cyborg vs Holm for interim if Germaine is injured), all of the TUF guys on the TUF finale or they could have the BW title headline the TUF finale if they wanted to and still do 3 title fights on the PPV adding one of the womens title fights in the #3 slot

I didn't today and I generally don't unless it's clear the value is way off the true price, which it can be in MMA if a fighter has won a round but gassed or you feel like the book has misjudged whether a fighter can still win on the scorecards or not. You can't live bet on most books in Australia (betcris/5d/pinny only basically and Pinny doesn't have live MMA betting) and I know the cashout feature is raked huge, but it can be +EV in the right situation.

I got off my Rashad -175 bet vs Kelly after 2 rounds when it looked like it was 19-19 or 20-18 Kelly, I had 7u to win 4u (to return 11u total) and lost 0.9u in a spot where Rashad was a flip at best at the time. Effectively this means I got 6.1u back out of 11u total which means Rashad would have to have been more than a 55.45% chance to win for my cashout to be -EV.

Also, I managed to cash out a fighter wins in round 2 or 3 prop with a minute left in that round at something like a third of the value of it hitting when that fighter was not at all looking like finishing during that round, some books make mistakes with cashout prices as was the case here. I can post some screens if you like and you can watch the fight and see for yourself what the EV looks like at the time the cashout was hit. It's rare, but it's worth watching in real time in case the book makes a mistake.

If there was a sport where the cashout feature was acceptable to use it's something like MMA where observation midfight is subjective as opposed to say cricket where statistics basically determine the true price and the cashout will never be +EV

I mean for example let's say in a pickem fight Lombard is fighting a Hendo or Magny caliber fighter and he rocks them in r1 and goes hard for the finish, or say a HW like say Reem or Carwin has rocked a guy with KO power and cardio and gone hard for the finish and failed to get it but expended a pile of energy and look tired/breathing very heavy in between rounds. They win the first round 10-8 and the live betting is showing -800/+550 but the other fighter looks ok between rounds and is known for good cardio and it's a 5 round fight. You can cash out for say 82% of the winning value of the ticket - seems like a reasonable spot to hit the button. Another example would be a guy like Diego Brando is fighting a wrestle-boxer with good cardio, rocks them in r1, tries hard to finish and looks exhausted by the end of the round but has clearly won the first round.

Yes, it's better to live bet if you can usually, but it isn't always and live betting isn't always available.

Also fwiw the vig on bet365 cashouts specifically is WAY lower than most books cashout vig like say tab in Australia. Tab's cashout vig is 3x what b365 charges so it depends which book the bet is on whether it can ever be +EV to cash out. Sometimes on b365 if a line moves against your opener it can actually be +EV (or less -EV than keeping the bet anyway) to cash out take a 5% loss and rebet the line elsewhere as it's moved more than the 5% you're losing to do so

noticing a lot of the younger fighters which seem to be a lot "tighter", not so much compact but more tight in core and speed taking wins over the older guard, so Jorge Masvidal over cowboy, obviously Kelvin Gastelum over Victor Belfort, sure there is a sht ton more examples,

speed kills, if you take two fighters both devastating but one is, not so much bigger but their centre of pivot is bigger, there ability to move is slower, then the new guard of well versed as good if not better up and comers, they kill the older fighters, its like a 40% advantage.

Not all younger fighters have this but Jorge Masvidal for example, lean tight, dynamics the older fighters don't have.

What I mean to say is that the really lethal fighters today, every millimetres of their core out to the hand they lay on your face is perfectly timed, its tight to think of a better word.


I am not explaining myself very good but SwoopAE do you see this kind of trend? any one able to guess at the next fight that puts forward a super star of old vs a new breed.

If I was an MMA fighter and I had to put food on the table etc.... I would spend 30% of my time in the GYM purely working on this ability to move with tremendous pace, I guess its called MMA core work?

thoughts on this?

Seems to be a valid point. Generally speaking the talented young guys will beat the veterans/gatekeepers except for the ones who aren't talented enough to make it eg Villante is nowhere near Shogun's level even though Shogun is a shell of what he was in his prime. Like for example Machida is over the hill now, but he still destroys guys like CB Dolloway because they're not on the same level.

An interesting one coming up is Rodriguez vs Edgar, Edgar isn't really far past his prime skillset wise or anything, it's a crazy matchup because Yair Rodriguez is their potential Mexican superstar and they give him a nightmare matchup rather than putting him up against say Lamas

I think Gastelum is a handful for anyone at WW if he can get his weight under control, but the top 5 at MW will be too much for him with the possible exception of Bisping who I think he matches up reasonably well against despite thinking Bisping is underrated. He could catch Rockhold or narrowly outstrike Jacare and use his TDD or outwrestle Mousasi via top control but what does he do against Weidman or Romero? He had an awful camp and took the current champ to a close SD from memory Gastelum could be a future champ at WW if he can get his weight under control and while I think his pace/speed like Edgar's at LW back in the day will be enough vs anyone outside the top 6-7 or so at MW against the elite guys size is going to matter and Gastelum's just too small to get into wars with the top guys. I mean by all means he can give it a run if he wants he's looked great at MW so far and I guess he can drop back down to WW if he loses one rather than starting over. I guess with the logjam at the top of WW it's not the right time, if he keeps winning at MW and drops back down he can basically slot into a #1 contender fight in a year or so with a couple wins if he loses at MW and if he doesn't then he's only maybe two top 5 wins away from a title shot at MW, he just needs to wait for the champ to fight 3 more times so maybe a year - GSP vs Bisping, winner vs Romero, winner of that vs Jacare/Whittaker winner, maybe he can ask for the Weidman/Mousasi winner but that will be a tough fight for him either way and especially if it's Weidman imo

Masvidal's a guy I thought was lazy in the octagon at LW but he's totally put it together at WW and looks better than ever. I think Maia is going to tap him or win via backpack, but I wouldn't be surprised if Masvidal wins either and if he does he's basically the #1 contender coming from nowhere a few months ago.

I don't think there's any single recipe to success, certain strengths and weaknesses counter other strengths and weaknesses, styles make fights and size/strength vs speed/technique is just as much a part of that as muay thai/bjj fighter vs wrestler/boxer etc

nice post +

your weidmann praise is really misplaced imo, Mousassi will destroy him

I was watching Weidman clips during breaks in the card last night and I became suuuper tempted to take the moose at current price. I should look into the fight more, but just Weidmans terrible decision making in his post Silva fights combined with the brutality he has been a victim of... I think there is a real chance he steps into the cage a shadow of his best, and his best wasn't as good as people (me included) want to believe.

Really looking forward to that fight, Big supporter of Mousasi, was a classmate of his big brother, who is currently training him and is in his corner.

He seems often underrated by the mass, but definitely not by the bookies, he is almost always the favorite.

He is extremely confident and experienced atm and I think he is able to outstrike Weidman on the feet. He got great precision and killer instinct combined with high fight IQ and that scary calmness. Also he got decent wrestling and TDD , although I think that will be key in this fight, if he can stop the TD or not.

But then again like Swoop said, Weidman might keep it standing for way to long, and not shoot often enough. I do think Weidman has the edge when it comes to strength and endurance, I think in a 5 rounder he should have the edge.The line is pretty sharp, might go for Weidman by decision, or Mousasi (scorecards = no bet), haven't made up my mind yet.

i think the biggest question about Weidman is his confidence. there's smth about an undefeated fighter that gives them that extra edge, he's lost that now. i still think he's an elite fighter, but what did those 2 brutal losses take from him

Do you think Weidman won't attempt a takedown, or will try and can't get it out of curiosity?

@Check it's 3 rounds right not 5, it's not the main event

So much will come down to his mindset. Regarding bad decision making does he have any awful decisions other than the Rockhold spinning attempt? On skillset I see zero reason why Weidman should be a dog.