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Nate Marquardt v Sam Alvey
Nate Marquardt
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 6/5
Stake: 200.00
Possible Return: 440.00

-
Nate Marquardt
@ 13/10
Stake : £200.00
£460.00
Total Staked :200.00£
Estimated Return :460.00


Fight is 5000feet up no joke (the elevation of the entire city ranges from 5,130 to 5,690 feet ), its in Nates home city of Denver, that is twice as high as Mexico city(look what happend to Cain Velasquez when he fought Fabrício Werdum 188), which is insane place to be fighting.

You had better be in tremendous shape and I am not talking any supreme fitness at sea level, that wont mean any thing at all with in 30 seconds you will fold up internally.


Sam is hugely under impressive in movement, you can read his punches (telegraph) a mile off, I see little or no articulated leg kicks. He gets hurt in there, he doesn't have a chin like a brick, when he gets touched he has to back up. He is in with the wrong dude here, nate can throw some thing crafty and then has more than enough skill to land follow up combinations. and nate has the whole repertoire of weapons, skill and fight progression experience.

Nate is a beast actually when it is said frankly, dude is flexible intelligent fighter and he has home advantage at 5000 feet up vs a mummy ploder?

This is why we bet MMA imo, fight like this and Nate is the under dog? why because he has a slightly suspect chin? older and Sam has a donkey kick left punch.

THAT'S NOT ENOUGH vs a guy with fluid movement.

look at Nates back ground, he took off in December 18, 1999 to Japan, came back won the Won the ROF Middleweight Championship. then went back to Japan and fought 20 odd times, that right there is bad arse, guy is like bruce lee, "I am very self sufficient and if I decide to come after you well, that's it baby".

Sam Alvey is a thick strong ford mustang vs a mclaren p1 with 7 more years on it (nate is 37 vs Sam 30).

Nate is like a supremely fit panther, he is a very clever guy, he is going to know to stay away from the bomb left, he is going to know the alt and how the advantage will be with him later into the fight, rd 2, rd3.

I am really liking this bet, also reading this:
http://gazette.com/arvadas-nate-marq...rticle/1594939

I like the fact he was up and moving with in days and his coach is saying very good things about this training, the guy is a big powerful man his muscle tone is impressive, sam makes one slip up, and he will not just be smashed but hit clean, that's the difference a swinging dude vs a proper mixed matrial artist,

Also if this is not enough, Nate is a natrual wrestler, and very very good on the ground, if it goes to the ground Nate will be ALL OVER Sam.

Points from mma bet tips on same fight. credit were it is due good tip I agree. especially with Nate the dog, fight gets out of the 1st round its nates fight.





Nate Marquardt to beat Sam Alvey

Sam Alvey has proven throughout his career that he has KO power, but he has also shown that he is slow, one dimensional and easy to gameplan for. Nate Marquardt is extremely skilled in every single aspect of MMA and has the experience required to avoid Alvey’s power left hand and win this fight easily.

Of course it’s possible that Alvey could win this fight by KO, but Marquardt wins 9 times out of 10 if Alvey fails to get it done inside the distance. Sam Alvey has a puncher’s chance of beating Nate Marquardt and that’s about it.


Reasons for placing this bet...

Nate Marquardt is from Denver which means that he will have home advantage on his side. Judges in Denver are notoriously biased towards home town fighters, which gives Nate a significant advantage in this fight.

Nate Marquardt lives and trains in Denver, so he’ll be used to the high altitude.

Nate Marquardt is significantly better than Sam Alvey in every single aspect of MMA.

Nate Marquardt has excellent distance control. Alvey is very one dimensional and telegraphs his attacks. Marquardt does a great job of staying out of his opponent’s range. He should be able to avoid Alvey’s powerful left hand.

Sam Alvey is very slow, very one dimensional and very easy to gameplan for. Marquardt just has to avoid the power left hand and he’ll win this fight easily.

Nate Marquardt has excellent reactive takedowns, strong wrestling and he’s very heavy from top position. Alvey has poor takedown defence, weak wrestling and a low level ground game. He also plods forward flat footed, which should make it easy for Marquardt to hit reactive takedowns. Marquardt can win this fight easily if he uses his wrestling to take Alvey down and control him on the ground.

Sam Alvey is not the same fighter since he broke his jaw. He now struggles to let his hands go and he’s a lot more tentative than he used to be.

This fight is taking place at altitude, which means that Sam Alvey will become significantly less dangerous as the minutes tick by.

Alvey struggles to wear a mouth guard. This leaves him wide open to being KO’d by Marquardt’s heavy hands.

Alvey has fallen in love with the knockout and spends too much time head hunting. This makes him predictable and very easy to outpoint.

Nice write up Balla, I also really like Nate to win, as a dog? Even more so!

I'm not gonna argue that both places are at altitude, and that fighting at altitude is hard.

But the bit about the elevation vs Mexico City is just wrong. Mexico City's elevation is a touch over 7,300 feet, or about 2,000 more than Denver.

Mexico City/Elevation - 2,250 m
Denver - 1,610 m

Effects of high altitude on humans


thanks for the correction.

I actually think that's your best write up ever Balla. I usually find myself disagreeing with you and while Nate is well past his best you make a very compelling case that he's value here.

Pena vs Shevchenko is interesting... does anyone know if either of them has been training at altitude for the 5 rounder? Obviously Pena has the grappling edge and Shevchenko has the striking edge so it'll come down to who can implement their gameplan and cardio. Shevchenko's a notoriously slow starter but comes on hard in later rounds usually. I wonder if her cardio will be up to it if Pena gets her down in r1?

I'm also pretty tempted to bet on Cerrone against Masvidal, a year ago i'd have said it's a terrible matchup for Cerrone and that Masvidal will out-technique him but Masvidal's lack of activity will hurt him and Cerrone seems to be less vulnerable to a big shot at WW and Masvidal isn't a huge WW. I think Masvidal is way too hesitant and that the type of fighter to beat current Cerrone needs to bring the fight to him, set the pace, pressure him and hurt him with body shots. That's more a Nick or Nate Diaz type than Masvidal who is a patient and accurate striker but prone to long periods of relative inactivity for a top 15 fighter (which cost him several split decisions over the past few years even though I thought he won the Iaquinta fight)

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Masvidal turns Cerrone's lights out with a counter but i'd be quite shocked if he manages to outwork Cerrone enroute to a decision and in a fight more likely than not to go the distance as Masvidal is very tough to finish I favour Cerrone to win a clear but competitive decision, with both guys having a similar chance to finish although Masvidal will have to be way more aggressive than he normally is and hurt Cerrone with strikes early before he hits his rhythm to do that.

Has anyone followed Bobby Nash's career to date? Jingliang Li is basically a litmus test for 'is this guy UFC caliber' and Nash is a small dog coming off a KO of Gonzalez who is basically Bellator mid tier. Is Nash any good? Li will beat non-UFC caliber fighters and lose to UFC caliber guys basically that's what he's done so far in his UFC tenure anyway.

No bets yet but i'm considering Cerrone and Marquardt. Pena hasn't let me down yet either but Shevchenko might be underrated so i'll probably leave the main alone and cheer for Pena. If she beats Shevchenko she's going to beat Nunes. Similarly I think if Shevchenko can find a way to shake off her slow starts I think she can beat Nunes too. I think the winner of this fight is likely to be the next WBW champion although i've been wrong fading Nunes before.

Totally agree about Masvidal, although he does tend to get super aggro after he gets hit. I kind of see this as a high variance fight because I think Cowboy brings out the aggression in him and turns it into a war.

Nice write up Balla... your last sentence resonated with me the most. People who find success in a narrow area focus just on that and ignore the rest of it. Nate is def. more complete. I think both chins are the same but would still give the power edge to Alvey based on hand speed. But I'd give volume and work effort to Nate.

I'm not sold on this fight either way but hope weigh ins will give some extra insight.

Masvidal won't be a slow starter as he wasn't in his last fight and has blamed judges for all his decision losses who gave him the L due to inactivity. He wants to be more aggressive and showed it in his fight with Ellenberger. This should be a great fight.

Could be a good bet for FOTN then if Masvidal is going to bring it to him. Can't see any other standout contenders for exciting fights, Caceres is usually fun but don't know enough about knight. Women's main should probably be a one sided grappling or striking beatdown depending who can implement their gameplan. Arlovski vs Ngannou could be goo if Arlovski's chin holds up in a war but it's not that likely to if it's back and forth. I might make a small FOTN play on Cerrone/Masvidal if it's +3xx and a moderate to large one at +450 or better

little give and take update on the nate fight.



-wife bought a alt tent and he sleeps in it @ 9k.
-Sam arrived a full week out to make sure he was good, felt in his mexico city fight not his lungs but power was what was lacking.


Nate hitting numbers in training never done before, he is pleased as not over training. feeling good.

Interesting that Nate coached Sam in the past. I think this has to add in fav of nate quite a lot, coming into the cage he is going to know his timings right off the bat, this has to lower the % chance of the Sam KO early ? IE: nate is not measured his man up and gets donkey/sunday punched.

Nate is a fighter that understands body Anatomy and, timing, and especially distance.


I am loving hearing that nate and sam have been in the cage.


Sam needs to be in the cage with another lumber jack, big strong dude, not a little panther samurai with tremendous cardio strength punching power, cage craft and several dozen more tools than him.

Only way Nate loses this is if he is un fit to fight and fights regardless and yeah, aims for the early KO in rd1 inside the pocket throwing down, doing that would reduce nates % to win and even then he could win because he has heavy hands. Sam is easy to get to the ground, Nate has options, options.... and the mind to execute them with a body that is supposedly responsive.

Lets see the weigh in I guess.
Its difficult to catch a slippery eel, to nail flush, full force a high caleribe MMA fighter. look at the people nate has fought, he beat Tyron Woodley in 2012 in the 4th round, and if you look at woodleys record post that, its telling, he has NEVER been knocked out after that.

Nate is a dangerous human being way more so that Sam





disclaimer: the lower portion of my previous post above was care of mma betting tips.

Heavy Hands did an interesting breakdown of that fight: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/1/25...eview-sterling

They didn't really bring up the altitude but as far as cardio goes they didn't expect either fighter to have issues, and they suggested that whether or not Shevchenko gets to dictate the distance and pace will be a bigger determining factor (as in if she does, expect another slooooow fight).

They're also... let's just say "not complimentary" about Pena's striking.

edit: FWIW if Shevchenko is still training mostly out of Lima in Peru then its elevation is already pretty similar to Denver

I noticed most media favour shevchenko but I don't really know why? Yes her striking is good but it's not very powerful or dynamic. Shev also has a considerable size disadvantage vs pena and she ends up in the clinch fairly often which would be great for Pena ofcourse. I think Pena will just ragdoll her, but we will see.

Pretty substantial Shevchenko steam today plus a bit on Masvidal

I might wait for weigh ins for Shevchenko vs Pena; Pena is up there with Darren Elkins for most profitable fighter i've bet on lifetime (not a big sample size though i'm just 4-0 betting on her since TUF) but if they're close to the same size I do think Shevchenko should outstrike her enroute to a win, that said if there's a big enough size difference Pena will ragdoll her as broe said. Going to wait for weigh ins for that one.

In theory Pena has two inches of both height and reach on Shevchenko, which is something but I dunno if it's "considerable". Particularly since she's not actually very good at taking advantage of those measurements: she's not an outfighter, instead she tends to close distance by rushing in, leading with her face and swinging big wide punches. Against Shevchenko that's just asking to get check-hooked in the face over and over again, and maybe have your leg punted out from under you for good measure on the end.

I don't doubt that Pena will be the "bigger" fighter in the cage on the night (Shevchenko is probably a natural 125er), but I'm not sure that's going to be anything like the biggest deciding factor on the night. Nunes and Holm were both bigger than her too and she acquitted herself pretty well in both those fights.

Shevchenko's no slouch in the clinch herself. And before we get too carried away about Pena in the clinch, maybe have a look at the way Jessica Eye (another smaller striker) handled Pena in the clinch against the fence.

This could very easily wind up looking like Rousey-Holm IMO.

Yeah my instincts say that Shevchenko is the play, but I like Pena more and she hasn't let me down so far betting on her so I may just pass on the fight.

Don't think i'll have many plays on this card but ill wait and see. I'm still tempted by Cerrone for some reason.

Have two bets this weekend Marquadt at 2.3 and Shevchenko at 1.8.

Wasn't sold on Shevchenko but saw the money coming in last night and bet on a euro book that are slow to move their odds.

Watching tape on Daniel Hooker vs Jason Knight

I don't see how Knight is such a favourite over Bruce Leroy tbh. Alex is a bit specially (obviously). Jason struggled for a long time to put in a neck lock from back position, tried to walk down Hooker aiming for the over hand right and unable to compensate for basic movement of the other fighter, like the dude backing up around the cage constantly.

To beat Alex you need to be a little bit better than Jason, like your Yair Rodríguez, and even Yair a super super dangerous fighter could not end Leroy it went the full distance. It is what it is, its a chance for Alex to show case his skill set, he knows to watch for the level changes and shoots, the over hand right, Alex is a precious gem to be able to watch, a talent, schooled in the way of the intercepting fist.


Worth listening to, to understand his mind set / approach.


Don't see why bookies have him as a 7/4 fav over bruce

Alex Caceres v Jason Knight
Alex Caceres
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 11/8
Stake: 80.00
Possible Return: 190.00


Single - Alex Caceres v Jason Knight
Alex Caceres - Fight result
Odds: 5/4
1 lines at £120.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £120.00
Potential Return:£270.00


Single - Chidi Njokuani v Melvin Guillard (Bellator 171)
No - Fight To Go The Distance
Odds: 2/7
1 lines at £100.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £100.00
Potential Return:£128.57

Second bet is a no brainer, this fight will end extremely violently most likely in the 1st rd.

I like caceres too Balla.

Anyone know what time weighs in are?

Early weigh-ins already happened (see video on MMAFighting.com), ceremonial weigh-in show is on FS1 at 7 PM EST.

Thanks Jim, will watch now. Anything to note?

just spotted all these Tito Ortiz vs. Chael Sonnen fight was fixed videos.



Sure would have been nice to know the fix was in pre fight, that +1300 on tito in the first round would have helped lol

De Lima missed weight by a lot, about 209 pounds for a light heavyweight fight. Also Nate Marquardt looked in great shape. Juliana Pena was pretty damn ripped.

Bellator 171 Risk $683.30

Chidi Njokuani (-222) vs Melvin Guillard ~$205.13 for ~$92.40
Chidi Njokuani/Melvin Guillard Under 1½ (-115) $86.25 for $75.00

David Rickels/Aaron Derrow Under 1½ (+135) $40.00 for $54.00
David Rickels wins inside distance (-131) vs Aaron Derrow $52.40 for $40.00

Brandon Phillips (+925) vs A.J. McKee Jr. $25.00 for $231.25
A.J. McKee Jr./Brandon Phillips fight starts round 2 (-118) ~$54.52 for ~$46.20

Alice Yauger (+190) vs Jessica Middleton $25.00 for $47.50

Parlay:
A.J. McKee Jr. (-1050) vs Brandon Phillips + Chidi Njokuani (-260) vs Melvin Guillard $195.00 for $100.71

x 6.0 ngannou round 2 seems like value

anyone selling 5d funds pm me