MMA Thread

[BowenR]

holy ****, just read "The Well: rsigley"

sort of changed my life in a strange way

that guy is such a loser but I want to be him

got inspired and spent about 10 hours today coming up with a model for trading tennis to market-make on betting exchanges and find value in derivative

[Artdogg]

unless you are putting a crapton of stock into TRT and Anderson's ribs, Anderson should not be a favorite over Chael, I can understand why the line is where it is though

[just_mo]

lol? Sonnen's last performance wasn't exactly inspiring, he was getting outgrappled for stretches by Bisping. That's not gonna fly against the champ.

[SwoopAE]

Originally Posted by Artdogg

unless you are putting a crapton of stock into TRT and Anderson's ribs, Anderson should not be a favorite over Chael, I can understand why the line is where it is though

The fight is 5 rounds, that's 5 rounds that start standing against the best striker in MMA and 5 rounds that Chael who has a history of being subbed has to sit in the guard of a BJJ black belt.

There's a very good Chael is winning the fight before he's finished, but Anderson has 5 rounds to finish him. Chael has one path to victory and that's 50-45 with five flawless takedowns and topcontrol/gnp (well, he could technically win by GNP or Sub, but I doubt it in both cases with Anderson's chin and BJJ black belt)

Line is pretty fair right now but if Anderson gets down to -200 i'll be putting a bet on (and may do anyway). Remember, bad matchup aside, this is Anderson f'n Silva we're talking about here.

I would bet a very large percentage of my net worth on Silva at evens. I think the true line is around -270/+270ish.

[just_mo]

Ya I'm thinking there's value at -250 too.

[Artdogg]

I don't think Anderson is >50% to get that sub off his back, even over 5 rounds. Most of Sonnen's sub losses have come against ground beasts, Silva being the exception (compared to Maia, Horn, etc).

This is just a tough matchup for Anderson. Chael has a rock chin. Bisping showed much better TDD than Anderson, that's why that fight was close the first 2 rounds.

[SwoopAE]

Did you just say that Anderson Silva, who has submitted every fighter in the UFC he has gone to the ground with (Lutter, Sonnen, Hendo), does not have an elite ground game?

Even at say 45% for Silva if he spends the whole fight on his back, add in the 50% that he knocks Sonnen out standing and he's winning the fight about 72-73% of the time between the two which makes him about -270 or -280 or so. Pretty much how I calculated it anyway. That's not even factoring in the very slight chance that Silva can win by decision (although I agree he won't stuff Sonnen's takedowns in enough rounds to do that unless he dominates the first round or two and hurts sonnen badly)

[Artdogg]

He's not elite compared to just about every other guy who has subbed Sonnen.

And he's nowhere near 50% to knock Sonnen out, Sonnen has never been knocked out and we expect Silva to spend a large amount of time on his back.

[SwoopAE]

I'm also factoring 'Anderson dominates 3 of 5 rounds standing and wins a decision' into the 'knock sonnen out' calculations which is probably 10% or so.

And I do think Anderson is 40% to knock Sonnen out at least. It's Anderson Silva.

Vitor hadn't been knocked out since UFC 15 until Silva
Leben is known for having an iron chin and he didn't last a round
Forrest granted doesn't have the best chin but we saw that
Okami only had 1 TKO loss before Silva
Franklin's only been TKO'd by Belfort and Machida other than Silva twice

If Silva can stuff takedowns for one full round, Sonnen is going to be knocked out (granted i'm not sure that Silva can do that) but in addition to Silva having a legit ground game, he's definitely the favourite. The actual % is he is to win comes down to your views on the rib injury, TRT, and what adjustments both fighters will have made since last time

[Swiiftx]

I guess we will see in round 1 what kind of fight it will be. It's a little different fight than the others he fought since most of them didn't pose a ground threat or even tried to go there. All I know is Sonnen is probably the best offensive wrestler in the whole UFC, how he forces those takedowns and that Bispings takedown defense is even or better than AS takedown defense.

[Machinehead]

I think Andy's ribs really hurt his ability to stuff any takedowns in the first fight. If you compare it to his fight with Okami where he stuffed takedowns rather easily. I know Sonnen's takedowns are much better than Okami's, but it was like you could knock Silva over with a feather against Sonnen.

I think takedowns will be much harder to come by this time. Sonnen may still get takedowns cause his wrestling is so elite, but he's going to work for them. And Silva is going to hurt him coming in.

I'm waiting to see if the line get better.

[just_mo]

Man Forrest Griffin triangled that dude cmon.

Anderson may not be the greatest grappler around, but the guy has a pretty threatening guard. Certainly threatening enough to say Sonnen will be in danger whilst inside it.

The way Silva has looked since that fight make it pretty likely he was battling a significant injury IMO. Just use the eye test, watch the fights. Pretty clear difference.

[Swiiftx]

I've been thinking, how the f is cody mckenzie facing Chad Mendes, he just fought for the title, surely he isn't that low on the ladder. I think they really just want McKenzie out of the ufc.

[SwoopAE]

Either McKenzie wins and they have a ZOMG GUILLOTINE OF DEATH HE BEAT CHAD MENDES promo or Mendes gets an easy win and can fight a contender while he's 'on a 1 fight winning streak'

[mlane]

Fight has to be fixed. It probably has something to say at just how shallow that division is.