Stuff i'm considering early for 206

Kennedy vs Gastelum over seem like it could be okay, Gastelum has power but is moving up in weight and both guys can blanket at times, Gastelum probably has the slightly better hands and Kennedy may have the slightly better wrestling but this fight just feels like a close 29-28 grind most of the time regardless of who wins. Gastelum being undersized for MW and Kennedy's long layoff are wildcards though.

I expect Holloway to beat Pettis a lot but in theory it's a good matchup for Pettis as Holloway isn't a guy who can take him down at will. That said, it'll be a close fight on the feet as both guys are very solid.

Choi ITD/Swanson DEC are both possible if Swanson comes to wrestle. I'm really high on Choi but -2xx seems a bit high, would have hit -150. I may play Choi TKO if the price is plus whatever, and a Swanson DEC hedge at +500 or so would be solid too as Choi did get taken down easily by Tavares before getting back up and finishing him. Choi will wreck Swanson standing though despite Swanson's heart

Cerrone/Brown doesn't go the distance seems solid the u2.5 is -105 so fight doesnt go the distance at -125 or so seems reasonable and it's also a strong pick for FOTN (the other being Holloway vs Pettis if it's a standup war). Brown could break Cerrone with pressure and get a TKO and Cerrone can certainly TKO or Submit Brown especially if he hurts him with a body or head kick or even a body shot.

For the lines not out yet, i'll look at Cirkunov (I'm a Krylov fan but he's hittable and getting overrated probably, although also improving) then on the prelims Khabilov, Gagnon and OAM should all win if any are in the -200 range

I also like Vannata even though it should be a decent matchup for Makdessi I think Vannata was very impressive vs Ferguson and hope he's about evens.

Meek vs Mein will be interesting to see where odds open. Will consider whoever the dog is or Meek tko

Card is super deep but not that stacked for a PPV, but still very watchable compared to recent non-numbered cards

Every single heads up nl 2/4 table i sat at. I posted the bb , op raised, fold. Op sits out.

On those hands it progressed, if they won or lost, they would sit out.
Every single table i sat at, plus 20 tables, one after the other.
Never seen any thing like it,

It completely broke my flow and evening, i have uninstalled the client and await winner to get back to me.

I was actually on the call with the girl explaining it, and said wait let me show you, so i just opened a random 2/4nl hu, she called out the room name i said yeah, posted my blind, guy raised it, i folded (would have played good cards).
And then the guy sat out,

Its like an army of refuges sitting abusing ipoker loop hole?

I saw it plus 20 times in a row.

You basicly cant play poker, she raised a ticket to ipoker security team.

It seems like a bunch of people trying to only play the BTN. Maybe the room has a policy that first person to sit gets BTN rather than it being random for the first hand, in which case people are playing 100% of the hands from the button (obv a big advantage) and angleshooting by only playing 1 hand then sit out and rinse repeat

It sounds like a violation of the TOS, if not then Ipoker should fix it

I would recommend playing on a non-Ipoker site if it's an ongoing problem, stars/party/888/etc

Bro dont play at Ipoker a lot of Collusion, BTNing, Bots and the support is **** they'll do nothing

I just spent 30minutes on call to warm hand over the issue with winner rep

Are there any ipoker reps on this board? They need to explain wtf is going on, its outrageous, every single 2/4 hu nl table i sat.

People should have to forfit their BR if caught doing this imo via bot.

Mate you are gonna lose your time just cash out funds, theres multiple cases of collusion, boting and nothing happens. This one guy told me theres a lot of house bots too

rodger

edit: just got a reply after I spent more than 30 minutes explain to the support person the issue of wide spread blind stealing.

Unbelieveable. Ill take a look at some of the rooms mentioned. thanks Dekid


On 5 December 2016 at 21:29, poker@winner.co.uk <poker@winner.co.uk> wrote:

Hello,

This is Lakeisha from the Support Team.

We would like to thank you for having brought to our attention the players that you believe were not playing fairly. This is not tolerated in our Poker network.

This matter was investigated thoroughly and we found no evidence that is against gaming policies.

Rest assured appropriate action will be given to any found involved players who are not following rules.

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Had to double check to make sure I didn't accidentally navigate to the poker forum, lol. I don't know how you guys do it. I'd sooner trust my fate to MMA judges than a computerized card game that the casino controls the mechanics and outcome of!

Haven't rewatched all the tape, but isn't letting himself get backed onto the fence repeatedly an even bigger problem for Pettis than getting taken down.

My gut feel was Holloway ANIEC, should probably study it a bit more carefully though.

Vannata at -120 is money, already steaming hard on some sites but can still be found on uk books

Hall won the fight easily imo. He is beatable, but Gray doesn't have the intelligence to do it.

Flopping on your back when your BJJ is at that level is basically equivalent to having an invincibility cheat code. That's why Rickson says that even at age 50 he will be all the young guns in a no time limit battle to the death cage match, and I believe him. It's doubtful Hall ever gets finished or even handily beaten in MMA, though there will be a lot of controversial decisions in his future given the novelty of his style.

Great find Sigh, unfortunately at all my books he's around -170.

Vannata is wild and fun and looked amazing in round 1 vs Ferguson, But Makdessi is a pretty good kickboxer. I would caution against being too confident in Vannata against him.

Yeah but makdessi is pretty stationary and he has a short reach, it should suit Vannata well but Vannata hasn't proven himself very much besides 1 round.

Agreed, I hit Makdessi @ +140. Card in Toronto think it's worth the stab

I actually quite like this 206 card for betting and i've wound up on a bunch of small to moderate favs mostly.

No bets on the Lewis vs Longassnamerussian card yet

206

1u OAM -158

I think he outgrapples Dober pretty handily plus he has the home crowd advantage if it's a close fight. I said before the lines dropped i'd hit him if better than -200 so i'm going to. Less experienced but more upside and he did beat down Jake Matthews on TUF granted when he was less experienced and hes basically only lost to legit guys

1u Gagnon -152

Gagnon really impressed me against Barao, he's had a long layoff and Barao isn't as good as we thought but overall I think Gagnon is pretty underrated and again think he's closer to a -200 fav here.

0.4u Meek +140

Steam was on Mein but I said before the lines dropped that I think both guys have question marks, in Mein's case his chin and defense and in Meek's case whether he's been juicing pre-UFC and whether beating down Palhares was a fluke/bad Palhares fight IQ etc

I figure this fight is a coinflip so taking the dog (I said pre lines i'd take either guy at better than +125 or so)

0.4u Makovsky -158

I think he should be able to outwrestle Dustin Ortiz and hold top position long enough. Ortiz has some nice wins but they're by split decision and I was not at all impressed by him against Jussier and I think Makovsky has been exceeding my expectations so far in the UFC. Makovsky did better against Formiga than Ortiz did as well. I may end up going full unit here but need more time to decide.

1u Vannata -158

I was super impressed by him against Tony Ferguson and think he could be a top 15 fighter. Makdessi has good fundamentals but lacks athleticism and reach but just underperforms his skillset I haven't been impressed by him since the Cruickshank fight and that was a long time ago. Yes it's in Canada and yes he's a solid striker but I think Vannata will just outperform him to win the fight. Wish i'd caught the -120 open. This is a bet on Vannata, not a fade on Makdessi though. I think Vannata is going to be a top 15 fighter in a year or two if he isn't already and Makdessi beats guys who are lower UFC level and loses to mid and upper mid level guys mostly. I think Vannata wins this a shade under 2 in 3 but he's probably -180 or so here. If he's as good as I think he may be he should be -2xx but that's a question mark. To me Makdessi seems like the sort of guy who has great fundamentals but lacks that something that Uriah Hall lacks that makes him a worse fighter than he should be (to a lesser degree than Hall though)

1u Khabilov -188 vs Saggo

Khabilov does everything Saggo does better. Should be a -250 fav. I mean he held his own with Masvidal standing (granted he would have lost without the spinning kick) but his sambo cancels out Saggo's wrestling and he should have a small striking edge too.

1u Kennedy/Gastelum o2.5 rounds -175

Steaming pretty hard and I could get a good price, plus I do think it goes to decision around two thirds or the time. I'm leaning towards Kennedy getting the nod with his size and strength because Gastelum will be small for MW and may play Kennedy DEC as well if the line is good even though i'm very high on Gastelum i'm also high on Kennedy and he should have won the Romero fight by Romero not answering the bell after r2 plus had a close fight with him and is generally a top 7ish MW plus he beat Bisping convincingly and all of the other people to do that basically were PED users.

1u Brown/Cerrone u2.5 rounds -110

Also steaming a little now so I got a good price. I think Cerrone will often finish Brown after hurting him with body shots plus a head kick if possible. If Brown's on offense Cerrone has been prone to wilt under pressure too (against RDA and Pettis and he nearly got finished by Barboza too). Cerrone could easily submit Brown on the ground too. Basically both guys will be aggro and won't stop coming. I may take FOTN prop for this one too (along with the main maybe) and if it goes the distance theres a very good chance it wins FOTN as a back and forth war as if either guy is dominating both guys have better offense than defense imo


1u Holloway -175

Shoulda locked in the -160 before it moved, I just think Holloway is entering his prime and Pettis is exiting his. Stylistically this is a good matchup for Pettis but it's also decent for Holloway as he doesn't mind standing and trading and is likely to back Pettis into the fence a lot and be the more aggressive fighter. I'm very worried Pettis could land a fight changing shot, but Pettis has looked pretty bad since he lost the title and Holloway's been on a tear. If this fight was even a year and a half ago i'd have probably taken Pettis -175 but i'm very happy with Holloway even as a moderate fav here. I don't see him losing to anyone other than Conor and maybe Aldo on the feet and the only other guys who could beat him at FW imo would do it by offensive wrestling (Edgar and potentially Mendes)

In the other fights i'm going to take Choi TKO and/or Choi wins in r1 potentially with a Swanson dec hedge or alternatively Choi decision no bet if it's a good line but havent bet yet. I lean Cirkunov over Krylov due to Krylov being so hittable but I like Krylov more and may consider Krylov wins in r1 as he's a fast starter. Also considering some sort of under/fight ends inside distance bet.

Letourneau should beat Pereira and looked good vs Joanna but bad in her last fight so might leave it alone.

I may also convince myself to add more on OAM, Gagnon, Vannata and Khabilov as i'd be surprised if 3/4 of them don't win as only small to moderate favourites. Makovsky is tempting to add more too.

For 207 i'm still just on Cruz I may end up just PILING on Cruz depending how they look at weighin and whether Cruz is in Cody's head or not etc in the leadup and I want to bet Ronda but holding off til weigh in/fight prep is a bit more known, u1.5 rounds seems like a lock for that too or u2.5 for super lock

what have been your opinion and selections on rumble and cormier?

Been thinking about this fight lately, and was close to pulling the trigger on Cruz, but started thinking I might like the over 2.5 Rounds better at the same price. Since if Cruz wins it will most of the times be by decision or maybe even later rounds, don't see him finishing Cody often and espicially not U2.5R. You get the extra value of Cody winning in later rounds, and lose the value of Cruz winning in early rounds.

Curious to know what you think is the better play? others can chime in aswell obviously.

I think Cruz may finish Cody as he fights at such a fast pace he may gas early, he may also get frustrated and get his back taken or mounted in a scramble, the only person who can scramble like Cruz is Mighty Mouse.

I like Cruz straight up more, but it's fairly close, as Cruz 50-45 is by far the most likely outcome. I think Cruz finishing late and Cody finishing early both happen a low double digit amount, but i'm also a Cruz fan and would rather the sweat cheering for the guy I like more if both are similar EV which imo they are. I do think both bets are +EV though

I bet on Cormier in the first fight. I don't remember the price I got, I think it was about evens, Cormier opened -150 and closed +108 according to bestfightodds, there will be a record of it somewhere in the thread but too lazy to look. Rumble has grown on me since then though, i'm higher on Rumble than I was at the time, he still has no heart and will wilt when Cormier takes him down but if Rumble lands the big bomb again he may finish him

Cormier -110 or Rumble +150; i'd cap it at about Cormier -130 in the rematch. Cormier by submission and Rumble by KO props are both good if either is +2xx imo. Under 2.5 rounds (or u3.5 maybe) worth a look too.

In DC's last 4 fights I bet Anderson ITD at something like +5xx, Gustafsson at +2xx, Jones at -170ish and DC over Rumble at about evens so i'm 2-2 in his last 4

In Rumble's last 4 fights i've bet Rumble over Glover, Bader over Rumble or Bader dec (forget which but I was on the losing side), Can't remember vs Manuwa I think Rumble ITD or no bet, and Cormier over Rumble so i'm 3-1 there but I did fade him a lot previously in fights he's won

I'd say the fight goes similarly to the first one very often in that they engage, Rumble clips Cormier in the first exchange and either hurts and finishes him or Cormier completes a shot and rides Rumble on the ground until he gives up his back and gets submitted.

I think Rumble hurts Cormier before a takedown is completed over half the time, but as we saw in the first fight that doesn't end in a finish 100% of the time, whereas if Rumble is taken down and beaten up I expect he will be physically and/or mentally done after a round if he isn't finished and the rest of the fight will be more of the same until Rumble taps or can't defend himself

Yeah tend to agree, especially with your last point about picking for a guy/bet you like in a close EV spot. Thanks for the input

2.88u Holloway @1.58

My only bet for this weekend might pick up some FOTN depending on the opening lines

Good luck everyone

I'd have to rewatch, but I thought it was a clear 30-27 hall. Maynard didn't even kick the legs that often, in the majority of the exchanges with Hall going to the ground he backed away and asked for a standup. Does Maynard lose cowardice points for refusing to ever engage on the ground?

Yeah I had Rumble at underdog odds in the first fight and I remember kicking myself for not laying it off once they flipped...

I probably lean Rumble in the rematch as well, based purely on Cormier's athletic decline. I mean it's not like he's a scrub or anything, the guy is still elite. But he's getting old, he's still hittable for someone like Rumble, and his chin (like his knee) can only be getting worse. He's gonna fall off the cliff sooner rather than later. And I think Rumble has only been getting better in the meantime.

That said it's still a close fight and yes, there's a very real chance Rumble just ends up flailing around on his back until he gets finished.

Yeah when they remake it i'll take cormier sub +2xx rumble tko +2xx or Rumble +150/Cormier evens or -110ish I think

Honestly without Jones and Gustafsson the LHW division isn't that exciting atm, I hope Nikita Krylov continues improving or that Cirkunov is legit if he beats him.

Crazy how in the last few years it's flipped from LHW stacked and MW shallow to LHW shallow and MW stacked

Definitely considering Choi TKO at +105ish, might wait to see what the decision no bet line is