Quote:
Originally Posted by Swiiftx
Condit isn't overhyped, he was the WEC champion, yes competition isn't as good as UFC, still it counts for something. On top of that he has 3 wins over 3 very high ranked fighters, Kim 15-1(8-1 ufc), Rory Macdonald who is a up and comer and will prolly hold the belt someday and Jake Ellenberger who is on a streak now, 6-1 in ufc. He's faced nothing but good competition so far and has handled it well. I'm not saying he's going to win, but Condit is definitely not overhyped.
I wasn't trying to say that condit was some fish. I'm just saying that the ufc sells tickets and ppvs by hyping fights as exciting, close contests, and they needed yet another poor bastard to put up against gsp, and condit was the best guy for the job. I feel that this hype affects lines to a very significant extent, and i think it's affected this one.
At the same time, people have always sort of not liked and generally underestimated the diaz brothers, and again this affects lines. I used to do the same thing, but i learned my lesson and now i've been backing them both quite a bit.
I see condit being able to KO diaz early maybe 15% of the time, and winning a decision via a combination of takedowns, lnp, or somehow outstriking diaz maybe another 15% of the time. The reason i put that number so low is that while condit seems to have good cardio, it's not on diaz' level, and in a 5 rounder i think this will show as the fight goes on. That's 7 to 3, or +/- 233 or so, at least in my admittedly amateur mind.