Something was clearly wrong. He was totally gassed by the 3rd and from what i know he has never had a problem with cardio.

3 more units on Werdum since the price got slightly better, -126 is amazing in my opinion. He'll outpoint Nelson on the feet as long as he doesnt get caught/ko'd (he won't imo, only JDS has been able to TKO him and he's stood with better strikers than Nelson) and if it goes to the ground Werdum gets the finish enough for it to be +EV anyway a lot of the time. I just don't see Nelson being explosive enough to wind up on top for 2+ rounds and even if he does he has to avoid the sub.

I won't put any more on Barao/Kos/Herman unless the odds get better, but if the line moves in favour of Werdum i'm going to keep hitting it as it gets better up to a max of 7 or 8 units if I can get him at evens

The flu sounds like as good an explanation as any. I'd believe it. The dude was fighting hard in the championship rounds against Silva.

@DJSkyy how exactly does Koscheck have a "more well-rounded mma toolset" than Pierce? Pierce has shown more efficient/better technical striking than Koscheck, who basically throws nothing but power hooks. GSP easily exploited this by jabbing him nonstop for 5 rounds, that was awful. Pierce has also submitted someone in the UFC with a non-RNC submission. He certainly seems to have a well-rounded toolbox to me.

@Swoop saying Kos is equal/better than Fitch and Hendricks is just dumb. Fitch has inarguably had a more successful UFC career than Koscheck. And Hendricks just walloped him and could very well be a future champion, while it's a near certainty at this point that Koscheck will never be a champion. Knocking Pierce for losing to them makes no sense, especially since his loss to Hendricks was one of the closest fights I can ever remember watching (and I thought he won).

Unless Koscheck can just overpower Pierce with his double (definitely possible), I see this being a very close fight.

Condit isn't overhyped, he was the WEC champion, yes competition isn't as good as UFC, still it counts for something. On top of that he has 3 wins over 3 very high ranked fighters, Kim 15-1(8-1 ufc), Rory Macdonald who is a up and comer and will prolly hold the belt someday and Jake Ellenberger who is on a streak now, 6-1 in ufc. He's faced nothing but good competition so far and has handled it well. I'm not saying he's going to win, but Condit is definitely not overhyped.

Ya Condit has earned everything he's gotten. Two decisive finishes over very high level opposition. Only person to beat Ellenberger in the past couple of years, thought the fight should have definitely been scored a draw IMO. Thinking Diaz is rightfully favored though, I would like Condit's chances more in a 3 round fight. Diaz just wears you down so much, I'm thinking he might be able to stop Condit late. Rooting for Condit though.

So, what you're saying is that you're loading up huge on pierce in the +200 range? i would think that getting 2 to 1 on your monies for "a very close fight" would be the deal of the card, amirite?

Yeah, kos got beat up by gsp, so has everyone else who weighs 170. are you trying to say that you think pierce would do better? Pierce has fought 2 guys who could be considered sort of near the top of WW, and lost to them both. Josh has fought the best, with mixed results yes, but i believe this experience will help him a lot, and makes him much more of a proven fighter.

As for the toolset, maybe i overestimate kos' overall game. I have a hard time believing i overestimate a guy who i think is a regular d-bag, but in a fight where their rastlin may neutralize each others', it very well may come down to striking and clinchwork, so i guess we'll see.

I wasn't trying to say that condit was some fish. I'm just saying that the ufc sells tickets and ppvs by hyping fights as exciting, close contests, and they needed yet another poor bastard to put up against gsp, and condit was the best guy for the job. I feel that this hype affects lines to a very significant extent, and i think it's affected this one.

At the same time, people have always sort of not liked and generally underestimated the diaz brothers, and again this affects lines. I used to do the same thing, but i learned my lesson and now i've been backing them both quite a bit.

I see condit being able to KO diaz early maybe 15% of the time, and winning a decision via a combination of takedowns, lnp, or somehow outstriking diaz maybe another 15% of the time. The reason i put that number so low is that while condit seems to have good cardio, it's not on diaz' level, and in a 5 rounder i think this will show as the fight goes on. That's 7 to 3, or +/- 233 or so, at least in my admittedly amateur mind.

im surprised pierce is only +200

i expect kos to crush

Well obviously they're going to hype the fighters and try to make the title fight sound as competetive as possible, no matter who the challenger is. I mean, just look at Dan Hardy vs GSP, everyone knew with 99% that GSP was going to walk through Hardy without as much as a sweat but still they tried marketing him as a very dangerous striker who could possibly outstrike GSP.

I don't think cardio will be a issue here at all, both guys are training freaks, coming in with a well prepared camp and none of them is a muscle monster who will easily get drained. We saw in the Rory Macdonald fight that Condit has the cardio to get grinded for 2 rounds and then come back in the third with lots left in the tank. Beside, let's not forget Diaz's win over BJ Penn came in the 2nd and 3rd round when BJ Penns cardio came in question, up until that it was a very competetive fight and BJ won r1 imo. Condit is a very good and technical fighter and this fight is going to be a lot more competetive than people think.

Yeah I'll be betting on Pierce for sure, I think that's a great price.

I'm not ripping on Kos for getting beat up by GSP, I'm ripping the manner in which he lost. GSP exposed just how rudimentary/bad his striking is by simply throwing straight punches to exploit the fact that Koscheck basically throws nothing but power hooks. Yes, he hits hard, but he rarely connects with top fighters throwing like that.

Again, I caution you against judging Pierce harshly for "losing to the two top guys" he faced. He lost a 29-28 decision where he came closer to beating Fitch than anyone outside of GSP had in a long time (and to top it off he was a late replacement IIRC) and a split decision to Hendricks that half the media scored for Pierce. Writing him off as someone who can't beat top fighters based on those two fights is beyond absurd.

The last part of your post is why I see this fight being close, and if you also think the wrestling could neutralize, I'm struggling to understand why you don't see it the same? Pierce has a solid game outside of his wrestling, while Koscheck relies much more heavily on his grappling.

Agree, and even if Kos wins, it's not going to be by any means be a walk in the park. Unless he somehow lands one of his power hooks, he's not going to win the standup department, I mean the dude was losing vs Matt Hughes in that area.

Ok you guys have talked me out of making any legit bets on kos, at least unless the line sinks into the -180 range.

So far i've got

Vai Cavalo @ -125 vs Big Country, 8u to win 6u

Nick diaz @ -180 vs Carlos Condit 1.64u to win .92u

Fwiw i dont think anyone here is really overestimating condit, just maybe slightly underestimating diaz - and if/when condit hits +200 or more, i would not think that a bet on him would be terribly out of line.

Anybody else sorta like Bruce Leeroy +110?

I was looking at caceres there at +125. Think its a bet at that.

I like Kos so does Kirby. Go with your gut djskyy

I like Matt Brown at -300 range. Brown is solid all around and Cope is terrible all around. I was expecting -500 and was happy to see him as low as -280.

Matt Brown is a good pick, he's going to destroy Cope.

I don't really like betting Kos, even if all the predictors say Kos is going to win with his wrestling. Reason I don't like to bet, it was some time since Kos fought and he was losing the standup vs a average striker in Matt Hughes + Pierce has better technical striking. It all depends if Kos can take down Pierce, also think since Pierce called him out, he knows what he's doing.

Caceres, I like the guy and his style, but last time I saw figuero vs Macdonald he impressed me a lot. He's the brawler/sprawler type of guy with good cardio and the only way I see Caceres winning is getting a sub like a triangle choke or smth. But I see Edwin overwhelmning Caceres most of the time.

I think Kos is a decent play. If Kos can get takedowns he should definitely win. Even if he can't I think he should be a slight favorite in the standup. Pierce is good but I don't see any one aspect where he has an advantage.

Also, I think Hendricks clearly beat Pierce. Round 1 was big for Hendricks, round 2 was also Hendricks although closer, still would be hard pressed to give Pierce round 2. Round 3 was also very close but I gave to Pierce cause he managed to get a takedown. Still I felt he was marginally outstruck in Round 3.

Where did u get the idea that kos has better striking than Pierce? Pretty much everyone is saying Pierce has the better technical striking.

Pierce might be slightly more technical in his striking than Kos, but Kos makes up for it with serious power. I thought Hughes was probably more technically sound in his striking too, he still got KOed.

I put a 2u bet on Brown + Riddle for a little better than -200. On paper, it should be a lock

I'm surprised Diego is a +205 against Ellenberger. He's at +235 on BO. Anyone else think it's a closer fight than that?

Pierce has 100% better chin than Hughes and Kos is pretty str8forward with his over right. He isn't going to KO Pierce just like that.

Pierce has a lot of flaws in his striking as well. He doesn't create angles, he's stiff and plods straight forward, throws a lot of arm punches. Has a bad habit of ducking his head down and just winging punches. I think Kos's uppercut could find a home there.

I'm not sure who has a better reach, but Pierce seems to only be effective on the inside where Kos is effective on the outside.

Found some cool videos of Caceres street fighting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caZ1GgjndmE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQ6P0k_XCGM

Bodog and Sportsbook just opened lines on some fights. Rampage at -170/-190 stuck out to me.

This. Koscheck is just going to whiff a bunch of overhand rights like usual. If he can't get this fight to the floor, it's going to look something like Hendricks/Pierce. And in a fight like that, give me +200 all day.

@Tatanka Ellenberger should maul Sanchez. He's basically better everywhere.

Matt Brown -300 looks good to me too. Don't really see Cope having much of a chance there, most likely Brown will finish him. Good for parlays and straight up bets.