So tempted to lock in Wonderboy -185 and Khabib -250 but don't really want to tie the money up for most of a month when theres no guarantee the line will move that way on either.

I expect Wonderboy to close at -210 and Khabib at -300 but you ever know.

Lots of bets I love coming up, Weidman if he looks good at weigh in, Edgar over Stephens (probably by decision), Khabib and Wonderboy, Conor over Alvarez, Gastelum at +150 in what I think is a pickem spot vs Cerrone, I even think we may get Karolina at +400 by fight time vs Joanna and i'd be willing to play that. Pretty tempted to take Karolina +5.5 pts at +170 or so when it opens if it's around there as well.

On RDA/Ferguson I feel like I should like RDA on paper but i'm very tempted by Ferguson SUB as if he wins I think that will be how. That said, RDA is a BJJ black belt, so maybe not. On paper the matchup favours RDA but he looked off at weigh ins vs Alvarez, that said he crushed Cerrone post USADA and has never failed a drug test. If I knew he was never juicing i'd bet him happily but i'm always wary of especially Brazilian fighters who have had sub par performances post USADA

Held to submit Sanchez seems tempting, so is Clark as a big dog to Grasso

I'm beginning to consider 25 or so units on Khabib... Gotta take those big plays and roll the dice!

Is there a better -250 fav anywhere this year? I don't think so...

Loving Weidman over Romero. No such thing as a lock, but this is a matchup I think is close to sure win.

Parlaying everything insight with Weidman as anchor leg. Have a bunch of NFL games this week paired with Weidman.

Can't see him losing to Romero.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I really like Rashad at +200 against Kennedy a lot of questions with how he does moving down in weight but I could see it being a 50-50 fight providing it doesn't take too much out of him.
Also like Gastelum at +150, Cerrone has looked like a beast so far at Welterweight but Gastelum is looking really good at the moment.

I don't think he ever loses a decision to Romero. Romero has a decent puncher's chance, but for -160 to fade that, that's not bad at all.

I'm really tempted to just go huge on UFC 205. Edgar, Conor, Wonderboy, Weidman, Khabib, Gastelum and Karolina all seem like value at the current lines. I'm thinking the -5.5 pts for Wonderboy seems solid, +5.5 for Karolina. Weidman UD seems tempting too although I wouldn't be shocked if he finishes Romero.

We've had a great run of PPVs this year with 199, 200, 202 and now 205 coming up. So many exciting fights for 2017 as well, assuming everything goes according to plan

I'm totally on the opposite opinion here, I think Romero is a terrible matchup for Weidman and I will be on him big.

I agree.

Cruz vs Garbrandt for 207 apparantly

Looking forward to Cruz dismantling him. If Cruz opens below -300 i'll hit it. Cody has a legit puncher's chance and is probably the second most live out of the current BW roster after TJ (not including Mighty Mouse since he's still at FLW) but Cruz is so hard to hit and will be able to take Cody down if he wants to as well. I expect a thorough 50-45 dismantling both on the feet and ground and wouldn't be surprised if Cruz submits Cody after a few rounds. If the sub prop is high enough i'll consider taking it, Cruz's last sub was in 2006 but I see a RNC as a real possibility with how I see the fight likely to play out.

It's a shame the UFC didn't pull the trigger on TJ vs Faber, weird they wasted Faber on Rivera when it was a money fight, and now that Faber has lost to a prospect even fewer people will believe he's live against TJ

207 is shaping up to be an excellent card - Rousey vs Nunes, Cruz vs Garbrandt, Werdum vs Velasquez 2, Hendricks vs Magny and Brown vs Saffiedine - that's already an excellent card, if they add 1-2 more main card caliber fights it could be fantastic.

206 is looking very week, I assume they planned to have GSP's return as the main and Cormier vs Rumble 2 as the co-main, but now there's no support for Cormier vs Rumble. As it stands, Krylov vs Cirkunov, Vannatta vs Makdessi (only because Vannatta nearly finished Ferguson and seems legit) and Swanson vs Choi are the only three other interesting fights and other than Swanson they lack name value and honestly Vannatta vs Makdessi is not PPV material. I hope Choi can win and get main card PPV exposure, Krylov seems marketable as well once casuals figure out who he is.

Still though that's only 3 main card caliber fights, I mean if they get GSP vs Lawler signed that would be huge and the card would instantly become legit. As it stands Mein vs Meek and OAM vs Dober would probably be on the main card. Maybe they could add Struve vs Barnett or something if both guys are healthy or put two of whoever the losing semi finalist/finalists from the current TUF season are against each other

Damnit, that sucks and has made me more scared of the bet. I'm a JimGunn fan and follower.

How I see it, Romero was impressive beating Machida (declining Lyoto) but he's lost the other fights. (In my mind, both Kennedy & Souza won the fight)

Both do not have great cardio but if Weidman can get out of the first round, he's drawing sooooooo live. I think that if this fight was fought before Weidman-Rockhold, the line would be totally out of whack. Weidman would've been at least a 4/1 favorite.

Malki's boys seem to always somehow runbad and have their supplements tainted. Romero is almost 40yrs old, yes he hasn't shown any indication of decline however, it's bound to arrive. 100% sure Soldier of God lol, will be clean for this fight.

Conditoning, technique & standup I'll give a slight edge to Weidman, even wrestling wise, he will be ok, not great vs the Olympian. Even Brunson had some moments of success in MMA wrestling when he fought Romero.
This is in New York, it's Weidman's HUGE chance at getting the belt back. He will be as ready as can be for this fight. He knows he will open as a big favorite vs Bisping.
Will bet Romero by KO & win in 1st round but all other spots I'll be heavy on Weidman.

Other bout leans are Conor, Edgar, Thomson, all chalk unfortunately.
Gonna be a great fun card to watch.

Yeah I think a Romero by KO hedge should be fine (or Romero wins in r1, despite having a lot of r3 wins in the UFC a lot of that is variance and Weidman should take over as the fight goes on). I'm thinking about a Weidman straight up play with a Romero KO hedge.

Makes me a bit more scared of the bet too. It's interesting since both guys have an USADA cloud hanging over their shoulder (Weidman looking way smaller post USADA vs Rockhold and Romero's tainted supplements/fails the eye test the same way Lombard and Overeem and Brock all did)

I may wait for weigh ins, or at least pictures posted closer to the event during camp but I expect to be on Weidman in some capacity. Weidman by decision could be value too if the line gets up to +250 or so. Even at +224 it's tempting.

Anyone else think Khabib by submission might have value at +500? I may lock up a unit on that now actually. MJ has 6 losses by sub out of 10 losses, and while Khabib hasn't won by sub since his first fight he should come to wrestle since MJ has the slightly better standup and it's Khabib's easiest gameplan to win (and he should get a title shot win a win even if it's by decision most of the time) so I expect him to win by submission or decision when he wins, which will be most of the time.

Fired a few bets in

2u Conor decision no bet -163
1u Conor -150

2u Wonderboy -188
0.2u Wonderboy wins in r1 +500

2u Khabib -250
1u Khabib SUB +500

2u Gastelum +150

1u Weidman -160

0.5u Held SUB +280

0.5u multi event parlay Khabib/Wonderboy/Rousey/Held/Rockhold/Edgar +978

Two 0.01u 10 leg ridiculous prop parlays that pay approx 250 and 2500 units

Also planning to play Edgar, Karolina and Rousey in some capacity for the next few events plus probably Cruz, but no bets there yet. Will likely be on Rockhold over Jacare too.

My feeling on weidman is the injuries have potentially caught up to him. The disruption in training and likely USADA could mean he is declining early. Aside from the eye test, multiple injuries are a good sign of juicing IMO, because they are such a crutch to rapid recovery during intense camps. When they are taken away hard training leads to more injuries.

We'll have a much better idea of where Weidman stands after this fight - the Romero/Jacare fight showed those guys are around the same level right now and unless Romero is coming off roids for the first time he should be the same fighter. Weidman won the first, lost the second and was leading the third round until he tried the spinning whatever in r3, then got taken down and beaten up by Rockhold

If Romero can take him down and get on top of him he's in a world of hurt, but i'd be shocked if Romero can outstrike him standing when Weidman is also a solid wrestler, Romero was about on par with Machida standing until he got the takedown and GnP'd him to the finish, Weidman narrowly beat Machida standing, although it was a close fight with Machida coming on strong late.

I feel like if Romero went full on wrestler shoot a double leg from time to time he might actually be a better fighter because he's so strong and he has power standing and it may help his opponents fear the takedown giving him a standup edge if he shot more often but he seems mostly content to just stand and bang unless a takedown is super easy and given to him.

It's hard to figure out what to make of the fight, one factor is the NY crowd will be behind Weidman, so if it's a close decision I expect him to get the win more often than not. If I have to pick an exact result, it's Weidman wins a disappointing decision in a mostly standup disappointing fight where both guys are tentative and Weidman lands more volume (and maybe survives one scare/big shot).

I think we're fairly likely to see the WW and LW belt fights end fairly quickly, with the rest of the main card fights narrowly favoured to go the distance more often than not.

Bellator 162 Risk $1742.00

Alexander Shlemenko (-250) vs Kendall Grove $250.00 for $100.00
Alexander Shlemenko wins inside distance (-105) $42.00 for $40.00
Bobby Lashley (-365) vs Josh Appelt $365.00 for $100.00
Goiti Yamauchi (-200) vs Ryan Couture $200.00 for $100.00
Goiti Yamauchi (-215) vs Ryan Couture $215.00 for $100.00
A.J. Matthews (+150) vs Hisaki Kato $100.00 for $150.00
A.J. Matthews/Hisaki Kato Under 1½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00
Gilbert Smith/Ricky Rainey Over 2½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00
Virgil Zwicker (+135) vs Dan Charles $100.00 for $135.00

Parlay:
Chase Gormley (-190) vs Bobby Brents + Julia Budd (-540) vs Arlene Blencowe + Bobby Lashley (-400) vs Josh Appelt $100.00 for $126.12

Round Robin: 28 two-team parlays of $5.00 each
Virgil Zwicker/Dan Charles Under 1½ (+130) + Chase Gormley/Bobby Brents Under 1½ (+140) + Julia Budd/Arlene Blencowe Under 2½ (+130) + Gilbert Smith/Ricky Rainey Under 2½ (+150) + Goiti Yamauchi/Ryan Couture Under 2½ (+130) + A.J. Matthews/Hisaki Kato Under 1½ (-140) + Bobby Lashley/Josh Appelt Under 1½ (+130) + Alexander Shlemenko/Kendall Grove Under 1½ (+110) $140.00 for $560.99

Added: Gilbert Smith (-140) vs Ricky Rainey $140.00 for $100.00

Swoop how do you see Conor Alvarez playing out? I feel like Conor can hurt Eddie more than he could Diaz, but if he gases first it's death every time. EA will make him pay more with that wrestling.

Finally a winning night on Bellator and much needed win in general. Got lucky with the Gormley decision but overall an entertaining card and 6.03 units profit:

Bellator 162 Results

Alexander Shlemenko (-250) vs Kendall Grove $250.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alexander Shlemenko wins inside distance (-105) $42.00 for $40.00= $40.00
Bobby Lashley (-365) vs Josh Appelt $365.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Goiti Yamauchi (-200) vs Ryan Couture $200.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Goiti Yamauchi (-215) vs Ryan Couture $215.00 for $100.00= $100.00
A.J. Matthews (+150) vs Hisaki Kato $100.00 for $150.00= -$100.00
A.J. Matthews/Hisaki Kato Under 1½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Gilbert Smith (-140) vs Ricky Rainey $140.00 for $100.00= -$140.00
Gilbert Smith/Ricky Rainey Over 2½ (-190) $95.00 for $50.00= $50.00
Virgil Zwicker (+135) vs Dan Charles $100.00 for $135.00= $135.00

Parlay:
Chase Gormley (-190) vs Bobby Brents + Julia Budd (-540) vs Arlene Blencowe + Bobby Lashley (-400) vs Josh Appelt $100.00 for $126.12= $126.12

Round Robin: 28 two-team parlays of $5.00 each
Virgil Zwicker/Dan Charles Under 1½ (+130) + Chase Gormley/Bobby Brents Under 1½ (+140) + Julia Budd/Arlene Blencowe Under 2½ (+130) + Gilbert Smith/Ricky Rainey Under 2½ (+150) + Goiti Yamauchi/Ryan Couture Under 2½ (+130) + A.J. Matthews/Hisaki Kato Under 1½ (-140) + Bobby Lashley/Josh Appelt Under 1½ (+130) + Alexander Shlemenko/Kendall Grove Under 1½ (+110) $140.00 for $560.99= -$7.83
-----
Total Profit= $603.29

Pretty much the same except I expect Conor to connect with a big shot in the first two rounds and find the finish more often than not. If he doesn't, he will probably gas by round 4 or so and get submitted or decisioned losing the championship rounds. Conor needs to win the first three rounds to have a chance of winning a decision imo, although that is also possible. If Alvarez can't take Conor down at all then Conor is likely to find his chin for the finish at some point - I expect him to clip Alvarez standing multiple times with precision striking though early. Alvarez needs to take him down quickly and often to win the fight or to survive until Conor runs out of gas. I think the true price is in the -150 to -170 range for Conor, but I want to be on that side and I expect him to close at more like -175 or something.

I'm still a bit of a doubter of Alvarez, his best 3 wins other than RDA were all split decisions, I had the second Chandler fight for Chandler from memory and I sort of think Pettis is like a worse Conor - better bottom game, maybe better body kicks but otherwise Conor has faster hands and more power and better takedown defense. Beating Melendez on PEDs was impressive and so was knocking out RDA, Alvarez is very legit, but I can't help but feel if Cowboy can hurt him standing Conor can as well as long as he can keep the fight on the feet. I tend to think that Alvarez is drawing thin to dead on the feet (punchers chance only), whereas others may think he could be competitive. If the standup is close and Alvarez mixes in takedowns he's retaining, i'm just not sure he can do it.

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if Conor KOs him on the first major exchange. I also wouldn't be surprised if bullrushes him with a takedown attempt, and at that point either a dominant first round for Alvarez or a counter and KO are both possible. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it look like Conor vs Mendes or Silva vs Sonnen 2, where the wrestler lands his first shot, beats the striker up for a round with GnP and is finished in brutal fashion in the second.

Nice card for Bellator Jim, shame I wasn't awake to tail some. Didn't realise Lashley was fighting today. I hope we get to see him in the UFC (or at least fighting top 20 HWs in Bellator) before he's too old.

Wonderboy vs Woodley I expect will look like Rory vs Woodley, except Wonderboy will KO him quite often if he breaks him or lands one of his spinning kicks against the cage. I think it will be a dominant one sided beatdown and if Wonderboy can get through Maia he will be a dominant champion with 3+ defenses. If anyone wants to lay me a price that Woodley wins zero rounds on any judges scorecard (regardless of whether it goes to decision or ends in a finish) i'd be interested in a sidebet there.

Karolina vs Joanna I think could be FOTN if the Conor fight is over quickly, I may play this one and the main event for FOTN. Wonderboy vs Woodley could be too if it turns into a war, but I expect it to be too one sided. Cerrone fights are always live to, but I don't expect Gastelum's style in the fight will lead itself to FOTN this time. The other real shot is Edgar vs Stephens, but I expect Edgar to be 30-27ing him so that's less likely too plus it's on the prelims. Miller vs Alves could be live as well, but I think that'll be too one sided as well either way depending whether Miller can get it to the ground or not.

If I can get +500 or better on the womens title fight for FOTN I think i'll be taking that one, as I can see it being a back and forth 48-47 quite often. Joanna has to be favoured to retain but i'll be making a small play on Karolina once she gets to +350ish if she does

Khabib vs Johnson is interesting, if Khabib struggles to get takedowns like he did against Tibau it'll be close and even leaning MJ, but Khabib hasn't struggled to take anyone else down in the UFC and Johnson has been submitted six times, so i'm expecting a 30-27 Khabib or possible submission if he breaks him. I really like the +500 sub line, assuming the -250 to -300 is accurate for ML, Khabib wins something like 73% of the time (in my opinion even more often) and while a decision is most likely, I think sub is way more likely than TKO and the odds have it the other way around

Yeah I have a gut feeling Conor hurts him early if it stays standing. Alvarez does seem to have the tools to beat him though if he can take a few shots. I'm sure Conor still has power at 55 but that's also kind of an unknown factor for me.

As long as it's not a 13 sec KO I'll be happy.

How bad was the Ortiz vs Sonnen talk segment last night. Pure pro wrestling and bad pro wrestling at that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h12nv6qDu2g

Omg. That clip was cringeworthy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bellator needs to start doing embedded videos or at least give these guys a scenario where the **** talking would just happen organically. Basically just copy the UFCs YouTube game and get all of their fans watching your stuff.

You guys didn't like the size 52 stupid line?

Lol, Chael's lines always seem scripted and contrived with hacky, wooden delivery.