Robbie pls KTFO Woodley so he shuts the **** up

Is there video of the actual weigh ins? or did we lose that with the new policies?

Made what I assume will be most of my plays for the card. Only weigh in thoughts were Hamilton looked slightly worse than I remembered although he's never had an impressive physique so I went smaller than planned. Herman looked fat and out of shape at LHW and Krylov looked great so I fired anyway despite missing the -170 or so when I said I liked the line and everything else was about as expected.

1.6u Lawler -140

I think he can break Woodley and while I expect this fight to be competitive and Woodley may even have a more well rounded skillset, Lawler has a better heart and chin and slightly better striking. I think it'll be close, but Lawler breaks Woodley late in the fight for a TKO or wins a 48-47 type decision winning rounds 4+5 plus one of the early ones.

1u Rose -192
0.66u Rose SUB +365

Rose mostly wins by sub and while Karolina is good she's mostly a striker from memory. I think Rose is improving rapidly and should win here to earn a title shot. The SUB is probably the better play EV wise but I took both SUB and ML.

0.84u Masvidal/Pearson goes the distance -220
0.66u Pearson +215
0.66u Pearson +3.5 points -155


Should have taken this when it was -195 or whatever it was when I first mentioned it. Both guys have a small chance at a TKO and otherwise I fully expect it to go to a competitive decision. I lean Masvidal, but I don't think he's as big a favourite as the odds suggest. Pearson looked pretty good against Brooks and even won a round, granted Brooks wasn't at his best but Masvidal can give away rounds due to inactivity like he did against Iaquinta (granted a fight I scored 29-28 for Masvidal) and Pearson is consistently 'decent' in output

1u Krylov -225

Not the price I wanted but I think that's the worst i've ever seen Ed Herman look. He is and is getting older and while he has some talent and is coming off a good win over Boetsch and looks to have power at LHW he just didn't look good to me at weigh in. Krylov is younger and hungrier and should win. In hindsight I probably should have made this a half unit play but I do expect Krylov to win.

0.66u Rivera +3.5 pts -145 vs Perez

I think this is a close fight on paper despite the Perez steam, either guy could finish and if it goes the distance I expect it to have been competitive most of the time - Rivera was holding his own with Faber standing and while he has terrible fight IQ (Lineker fight) I still like it.

0.66u Reis -315

Not usually a fan of laying this price but Reis is a legit top level fighter and i'm just not sure Sandoval is plus it's short notice. Reis should be better everywhere

0.33u Hamilton -130

I think he's a serviceable HW and I don't know enough about his opponent to say the same. Mostly degenning here.

0.33u Brown TKO -105
0.33u Ellenberger DEC +525

I expect Brown to come out to knock Ellenberger out and Ellenberger to come to grind out a decision to save his UFC career. One of those things will happen, likely the former but I took both anyway

0.07u Parlay Lawler+Namajunas+Rivera+Krylov+Hamilton+Pearson+Re is +6261

im telling you swoop remember my words when that ellenberger sub hits

Matt Brown is good at losing by sub BUT he survived until r3 against Maia while being dominated and does have somewhat improved submission defense. Ellenberger is not the BJJ guy to tap him, he has 1 sub since 2006. If it was +1500 i'd still consider firing but not at +9xx, I think the decision at +525 offers better value for an 'Ellenberger wins via better wrestling' outcome. Not to mention that Brown is deservedly the favourite to win.

If you feel that strongly just throw a couple bucks on it, it's a decent payday if it hits. If you need me to do it for you I can, but you need to send in advance just PM me.

i think maia broke him and brown will give up the sub faster after more rounds of being wrestle****ed.

strangely im seeing sub under +800 in some places

wish i could drop a unit but im still out of the game trying to string the days together until life lets me recover my finances

Hope you get it together financially. Good luck.

Anyone like either side on Graves/Velikovic or Arzamendia/Brown? I know next to nothing about any of them, I saw Graves fight on the Blackzilians ATT TUF finale card, Luque has looked good since and Graves beat him and apparently some other guy since. I know nothing about his opponent though

both are virtual coinflips graves is the least experienced of the 4 but probably the most dynamic the rest are all pretty well tested against ufc caliber fighters

graves scorecards no action might be a decent bet he seems to have a knack for finding the finish.

Added a unit on Brown wins ITD -138, 0.5u on Brown wins in r2 +475 and and 0.33u on Graves -228. Decided to up my Rose SUB play to a full unit. Added on to make the Rivera +3.5 pts bet to a full unit too.

1u Lawler -150

I wanted to unload at this price but all the heavy money coming in on Woodley made me lay off and stick to a 1u play.

1u Karolina Decision +320

Think she can out work Rose and possibly get a split decision, mostly degening here but I love +320.

1u Krylov -220

Think he can break Ed Herman and grind on him possibly a late stoppage?

1u Rivera +150

Love his power, fight should be closer to a pick'em IMO.

1u Brown TKO -110
1.5u Brown/Ellenberger OVER 1.5 +110
0.50u Ellenberger DEC +500

Think he can break Ellenburger, but I can certainly see Ellenberger wanting to wrestle for the first/second round. Wouldn't be surprised to see Matt Brown KO him late in the 2nd or 3rd. Decided to fire a half play on Ellenberger in the case he somehow wrestles Matt Brown for 1/2 and survives the 3rd.

0.10u Parlay Lawler/Namajunas/Brown/Rivera/Reis/Krylov/Grabowski +3211

Adding 0.5u on Rivera straight up to go with the +3.5 I already have at +148 did a bit more thinking about the fight and think it's closer to even money

Rivera +3.5 @ +148 seems like a great play, I believe that when Rivera looses its normally by a split decision. Regardless I love Rivera in this fight

0.5u Damien Brown -114, because I caught the line and piles of money is coming in on him elsewhere and if I know nothing about either guy may as well have someone to cheer for

The +3.5 pts is at -145, the +148 is straight up - most of my play is on the +3.5 pts and I added a little ML too. Wasn't very clear from my post. I'd def be on for a lot more if +3.5 pts was +148 but like it regardless. I think this is headed to a 29-28 either way a lot with both guys having some chance of a TKO as well

anyone else not impressed with masvidal ? he never gets it done. hes not bloodthirsty. he just survives. im close to betting ross +204

He's probably getting outstruck and outgrappled against Masvidal. Mas has lost splits to guys who destroy the mid tier of the UFC (and he did beat Iaquinta), whereas Ross is more of a guy who destroys the lower tier. Almost no chance of finishing and a small chance of keeping it close enough in the striking for a decision doesn't justify it.

thoughts on Brown/Ellenberger over 1.5 (+100)?

I like this line, had 1u on it myself. If Ellenberger can wrestle this is a good chance of winning

WSOF 32 Risk $785.00

Lance Palmer (-140) vs Alexandre de Almeida $140.00 for $100.00
Lance Palmer (+100) vs Alexandre de Almeida $100.00 for $100.00
Caros Fodor (-165) vs Ben Fodor $165.00 for $100.00
Caros Fodor/Ben Fodor Under 2½ (+205) $75.00 for $153.75
Phil Hawes (-170) vs Louis Taylor $85.00 for $50.00
Phil Hawes/Louis Taylor Under 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00

Parlay:
Lance Palmer/Alexandre de Almeida Over 3½ (-160) + Marlon Moraes (-400) vs Josh Hill $100.00 for $103.13

Will you be releasing a list of your bets for tonights UFC also Jimm?

UFC 201 Risk $1825.37

Robbie Lawler (-140) vs Tyron Woodley $140.00 for $100.00
Robbie Lawler/Tyron Woodley ends in round 3 (+575) $20.00 for $115.00
Robbie Lawler wins by TKO/KO (+145) vs Tyron Woodley $50.00 for $72.50
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+190) vs Rose Namajunas $200.00 for $380.00
Rose Namajunas scorecards = no action (-235) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $235.00 for $100.00
Matt Brown wins by TKO/KO (+110) vs Jake Ellenberger $100.00 for $110.00
Francisco Rivera/Erik Perez Over 1½ (-215) $107.50 for $50.00
Ryan Benoit (+115) vs Fredy Serrano $200.00 for $230.00

Nikita Krylov wins by submission (+384) vs Ed Herman $26.04 for $100.00
Ross Pearson +3½ points (-155) vs Jorge Masvidal $155.00 for $100.00
Anthony Hamilton/Damian Grabowski Over 1½ (-127) $63.50 for $50.00
Anthony Hamilton wins by 3 round decision (+300) $33.33 for $100.00
Wilson Reis wins in round 3 (+1075) vs Hector Sandoval $10.00 for $107.50

Michael Graves/Bojan Velckovic Over 2½ (-220) $110.00 for $50.00
Damien Brown/Cesar Arzamendia Under 1½ (+158) $40.00 for $63.20

Nikita Krylov wins Fastest SUB (+1900) $10.00 for $190.00
Damien Brown wins Fastest KO (+2050) $10.00 for $205.00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz/Rose Namajunas FOTN award winner (+350) $15.00 for $52.50

Parlays:
Jorge Masvidal/Ross Pearson Over 2½ (-230) + Robbie Lawler (-210) vs Tyron Woodley $200.00 for $223.60

Micheal Graves wins by 3 round decision (+110) + Wilson Reis wins by 3 round decision (+145) + Jorge Masvidal wins by 3 round decision (+132) $50.00 for $546.82

Wilson Reis/Hector Sandoval Over 2½ (-125) + Jorge Masvidal/Ross Pearson Over 2½ (-235) + Nikita Krylov/Ed Herman Under 1½ (-130) + Matt Brown (-325) vs Jake Ellenberger + Robbie Lawler (-200) vs Tyron Woodley $50.00 for $395.25

Nice start

nice start Jim.

On Damien Brown / Cesar Arzamendia...
Did you just use their two UFC fights to lean on the under there or do you have access to additional fights?

Who won the Graves fight?

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I need to stop leaving it so late to get my money on, wanted to go underdog hunting but both karolina n woodley have been backed in considerably on my betting site so Iv gone £250 on Robbie @ 8/13
£25 on woodley round 1 ko @ 7/1
£25 on woodley round 2 ko @ 16/1

100 on Karolina decision @ 3/1