MMA Thread - Page 109 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Franklin was -117 at pinny and -120 at 5d at one point. Took a lot of nerve to put down more @ -130 considering ramifications of that line movement. Mybe the residents or Brazil are bunch of degens too.

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06-24-2012 , 01:29 PM

#2702

Onlydo2days

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Originally Posted by GoDeViLs

I was thinking rigged factor. I never think that way with sports either but just given the situation with the local hero, true ME already canceled, and the line movement from -170 to -120 in about 6 hours.

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06-24-2012 , 02:50 PM

#2703

SwoopAE

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Originally Posted by just_mo

Kind of disappointed I didn't watch the TUF season because it sounds like there were some profitable opportunities on the undercard that I missed out on. Shoulda just tailed Swoop. Oh well.

The only really good one was Bodao who won, fortunately I went big on him and smaller on Pe De Chumbo, Massaranduba looked like **** on the season (granted he was fighting 2 weight classes above his natural) and came out guns blazing and crushed him.

You should def bet Thiago Bodao and Hugo Wolverine in their first fights in the UFC vs non brazilians though and probably Massaranduba too assuming they're fighting at WW BW and WW/LW respectively (a lot of the guys were fighting higher than their natural weight class on the show)

These aren't your TUF US quality guys, some of them have potential to be top 10 in their divisions.

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06-24-2012 , 02:52 PM

#2704

SwoopAE

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

Rich is a company man but he strikes me as honest. Doubt he'd rig a fight knowingly. I was worried about corrupt judging but confident if it went 5 rounds ace would have won easily enough to win the decision anyway

Glad I waited to get it in on Franklin, put a small amount down at -137 then most of it at -120

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06-24-2012 , 04:55 PM

#2705

DjSkyy

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Well i'll admit i was sweating it early, but by the 3rd i knew my bet and subsequent double down on franklin was golden.

dude has the heart of a teamster, and the comradery between those two men from different sides of the globe seriously brought a tear to my eye.

also sheesh what value on dias...all i had to hear was nova and snapped up that +160, booya.

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06-24-2012 , 05:00 PM

#2706

just_mo

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Yeah Alcantara just had no way to deal with his power grappling game. His striking looked pretty bad tho. And ya in the third I already knew it was over when Wand stopped throwing. Punched himself out clearly.

Ya Massaranduba looked nasty and he has been highly touted by a few websites. Dude is a natural LW so gotta cut him some slack if he didnt perform too great on the show. Plus for him there's the factor of he's never been able to afford high level training, so maybe look for some value on his next fight since he finally has money to get that and may make some big improvements.

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06-24-2012 , 05:03 PM

#2707

Gary Wise

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

Can't believe it wasn't stopped in rd 2 but I'll take it.

Only thing that sucks is I got in on Rich at -160 when he was like -120 45 mins before the fight. I actually remember when Rich fought Liddell samething happened, tons of late line movement on Liddell and he lost.

Samething happened Rampage/Evans I remember, tons of late action on Rampage (don't know if it was public or sharp but big line moves considering these were all main events)

Rampage Liddell and Wandy are big time old school stars, all of whom had their best days behind them. Probably nostalgic/casual money coming in.

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06-24-2012 , 06:04 PM

#2708

SwoopAE

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Pretty much always value betting against the Pride guy (generalisation ofc but most are past their prime but have rabid fanbases)

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06-24-2012 , 11:50 PM

#2709

DodgerIrish

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Crazy that Anderson is actually older than Nog

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06-25-2012 , 05:44 PM

#2710

DodgerIrish

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Originally Posted by ProbablyRsigley

how can you bet against someone whose nickname is "ask murderer"?

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Originally Posted by ProbablyRsigley

why wouldn't the ref stop that dude was getting ask murdered

Being drunk and rereading this thread this made me lol, your willful ignorance in this forum is a damn funny schtick Sigley - SMH

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06-25-2012 , 10:34 PM

#2711

Jaymun

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I had money on rich at -170, doubled up when it dropped to -130, and I also put a couple units on him winning the 5 round decision.

What surprised me the most is that it was +525 for rich to take the decision, even though their first fight went to the judges, wand is a shell of his former self, and rich is a great gameplanner with stellar cardio.

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06-25-2012 , 11:25 PM

#2712

ashecounty

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Originally Posted by Jaymun

Five round fight. Wandy chin issues. I thought Silva would be put out Chuck style. Won money on the fight but would of never guessed a decision.

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06-26-2012 , 12:41 AM

#2713

just_mo

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Originally Posted by ashecounty

Five round fight. Wandy chin issues.

Pretty simple/solid logic. Was surprised to see Wand see final bell but Rich went with a stick and move based strategy (taking notes Guida?) and Wand didn't force engagements as much as I expected.

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06-26-2012 , 05:49 AM

#2714

SwoopAE

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FWIW I thought Rich was going to win by TKO too, but Franklin Dec +525 is amazing value simply because if it goes to decision it will usually be Franklin winning

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06-26-2012 , 10:51 AM

#2715

sayhey69

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Originally Posted by DodgerIrish

Being drunk and rereading this thread this made me lol, your willful ignorance in this forum is a damn funny schtick Sigley - SMH

pretty sure it was an honest drunk mistake. he seems to have trouble with the whole axe/ask thing

ProbablyRsigley
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Re: MMA Thread
why wouldn't the ref stop that dude was getting ask murdered

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06-26-2012 , 11:07 AM

#2716

noname6520

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Originally Posted by sayhey69

probably not a mistake

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06-26-2012 , 01:10 PM

#2717

sayhey69

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Originally Posted by noname6520

probably not a mistake

NO WAY!

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06-26-2012 , 09:49 PM

#2718

elliot10181

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Originally Posted by just_mo

elliot is one of thoe Diaz guys IIRC. Just gotta roll your eyes and move on.

Correct to some extent, it's not that I feel it was a huge robbery but I do believe the weighting of points should be to the aggressor to ensure entertaining bouts.

This is a young sport and there is no reason why judging criteria cannot be adjusted to reduce point striking (tap and run to ensure victory).

I liked the inclusion of a warning for Guida and I hope it changes some future game plans. The yellow card system in Pride was excellent at increasing action.

Anyone heading to 148? I'm hoping to pick up a ticket

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06-26-2012 , 10:53 PM

#2719

just_mo

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Ah so you were a fan of the Condit decision then I take it? Since he both threw and landed significantly more strikes? Aggression!

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06-26-2012 , 11:04 PM

#2720

elliot10181

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I felt Condit's leg kicks were for show more than significant strikes. They weren't thrown with intent but to score points.

I also see aggression and octagon control as taking the centre of the cage and not running from the fight.

In fairness I watched it live so you guys may have had better angles of the fight but from a fans perspective Diaz was there to fight and Condit was looking to hit and run for points.

Each to their own but I feel less tolerant referees when it comes to passivity in all it's forms will be better for the sport.

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06-26-2012 , 11:40 PM

#2721

just_mo

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LOL

I mean cmon man. I don't really like having to resort to trolling but...

"I felt Cain's punches against Antonio Silva were for show more than significant strikes. They were thrown to score points!"

There's no feeling. If someone is landing solid, legal strikes, you score them. Period. Otherwise anyone could use the ridiculous above "logic" to score a fight for whomever they want.

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06-26-2012 , 11:41 PM

#2722

just_mo

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Originally Posted by elliot10181

In fairness I watched it live so you guys may have had better angles of the fight but from a Diaz fanboy's perspective Diaz was there to fight and Condit was looking to hit and run for points.

Also, FYP.

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06-27-2012 , 12:01 AM

#2723

elliot10181

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Fan of fighting not necessarily Diaz,

Completely different situation with Silva and Cain, ironically it could be argued the some of Diaz's typical shots shouldn't be considered significant as many of his shots are arm punches.

Fight metric had Condits kicks down as leg jabs and I don't think they should swing a fight. It's easy to land leg kicks with limited power, they are rarely thrown as they cause no significant damage.

If you like watching fighters use the hit and run style great, personally I prefer when two fighters go 100% for the finish and believe that the judging criteria could/should be manipulated to encourage that.

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06-27-2012 , 12:15 AM

#2724

DodgerIrish

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This is a tired subject but if you want something more analogous look at Shogun/Machida I

If Diaz would've gotten the nod, the narrative would be that Condit got 'robbed'