Struves ground game success has mainly been from his back, from the top subs are easier for physically stronger fighters. The length of his legs is where he gains an advantage from guard.

Nelson if he chooses to will hold top position and work for high % subs like head and arm.

That being said they'll prob just stand and bang

Struve also isn't nearly as good on the ground as people give him credit for. Nelson on the other hand is very high level.

Is Dashon Johnson dropping to 45 for this fight or is it at 155?

How can you not bet against Thiago? He is old, checked out, and was never good. Spencer had a good fight with Garcia that could have gone either way on the dec and is young and improving.

How do you guys cap fights? As a fan, I have my idea of each fighter's strengths and weaknesses. Then I have a rough guess at how I think the fight will play out between them, but it's hard for me to assign probabilities to different outcomes. If pushed, I can guesstimate fighter A finishes, Fighter B finishes, Fighter A decisions, etc. but it's hard not to feel like I'm just firing shots in the air.

From reading, it seems like only a few keep excel model they actively tweak. Or maybe I'm wrong? How do you guys go from thoughts to numbers?

Honestly I don't use any statistics at all when I'm capping MMA its one of the big reasons I like to bet it so much. Combat Sports are all about hype and I'm usually looking to fade overhyped fighters when they shown weaknesses (Overeem after Bigfoot cracked him, Lesnar after Carwin exposed him, pains me to say it Fedor after Brett Rogers looked like a legit heavyweight contender against him,) and spots where people seem to ignore a performance like when Anderson opened a favourite in his second fight against Weidman.

I usually only bet like 1 fight a card now when I see clear value and I'm up 16 units this year flat staking 1 unit apart from one fight when I stuck 2 units on mariusz pudzianowski basically because he fights in a company built around his name and has special 2 round fights to suit him and unless he gets finished is gifted a decision. He was like -120 against Oli Thompson. Been very low variance this year so I think I'll stick to this approach and also arb obvious favourites that will steam before fight time (Yoel Romero is most likely the next fighter that I think will do that although the line has moved already I still think it will come in more.)

Not sure if it matters but Struve said he gassed badly in that fight partially due to his heart condition that he wasn't aware of until around that fight and fwiw I had the first two rounds both really close from memory until Struve got gassed and stood in front of Hunt

What are your guys thoughts on Liam McGreary in Bellator. True he's only fought borderling type fighters but the guy looks like an absolute killer and I think he'd do very well in the UFC and I'm surprised the UFC didn't sign him first. Don't know anything about his opponent but at -260 I have a hard to thinking he'd lose to any Bellator fighter. I think his true line should be -500 or so.

I have no opinion on that fight, is down to -320 though, so nice read. Hope you picked it up.

Here are two of the Bloody Elbow guys analyzing that matchup (starting at 44:30).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lQ6Il_16Es#t=2669

Though didn't he get mount in the first round when he was fresh and not gassed? But yeah, I agree with elliot and others, Struves subs usually come from the back, and Nelson has better control when he's on top than Struve. Still I find it impressive that Hunt has managed to either stay away from the ground in most of his UFC fights or get back up and avoid getting subbed (except for his first fight with that kimura guy).

Actually he has been put in his back in his last three fights. Does say a lot about his improvement there though.

Well yeah, I said either stayed away or gotten back up :P

Just try to come up with a thought in my mind about what the line should be. Then I look around and see what people are saying, both people I think are relatively sharp and those I think aren't necessarily as sharp, and factor that into my thinking. I try and also consider public perception of the fighters, e.g. a fighter coming off an awful loss is more likely to be undervalued. Try to think about how fighters styles match up as much possible when I do this, and then decide if I think the market is undervaluing/overvaluing someone.

Just had the honour of drilling and rolling with Randa Markos (girl from last nights TUF) for about an hour. Girl is legit. She wouldn't give me anything on how she does on the show, but she has potential to be a champion.

I'm only 129 lbs, so weight wise we were really close, but she is just so strong for a chick.

Not sure if odds are offered anywhere but her making the finale at +money seems good to me.

Should have put a sub on her to get the scoop. I hope you at least tried tickling it out of her.

I only watched the last 2 rounds but she looked good on the mat/throws.

!!!!!!!!!

Are you like...grown?!

129 lbs? I'm assuming you're like 5'5 because i'm about as skinny as you can be at 5'9 and i'm like 144-149ish depending on the day and I can't imagine i'd be below 155ish walk around weight if I actually trained

Markos looked decent on TUF but there are so many legit girls on the season, Esparza as the champ although if she beat Tecia Torres she has to be a good chance to make the finale

@Sect your Bellator bets are on check PMs

Also, i'm on McGeary -285 for 1.25u and under 1.5 -117 for 0.25u tailing

This season of TUF seems slightly more interesting, but it's funny how hard they're trying to market it but still attracting sub par views for the first episode (i.e. the most indicative one).

JoJo should breeze through her bracket though, including Randa, who I thought lost that 3rd round vs. Tecia. I guess that mount right at the bell got her the win. Esparza's bracket looks really tough tough, you got Jessica Penne, who's very high level and then girls like Magana, who is bigger and is 1-2 vs Jag (currently the best at 115 on paper), with the win being the most recent fight. Also Kish seems really good, and could be a potential darkhorse. Angela Hill seemed to have some nice kicks in the training shown during the first episode, but she has one fight lol, really curious to see if she is good since Melendez seemed to be impressed with her too, and shocked she was the bottom seed (although rather obv since she's the most inexperienced).

Either way, Gadelha is going to wreck whoever wins so the winner will only be a paper champ without any defenses if she rightfully gets the first shot at the belt.

I'm 6'2 19 years old Ina week with poor genetics lol. Tried weight lifting, and everything, can't gain much weight.

I'm like a slightly, taller/lighter George Roop lol

Being 6'2 in these divisions has a pretty great advantage though.

Edit: Point was that at 129 I feel I can get a better idea at where some of the women are at than bigger guys can, and Randa is a beast on the mat.

Wat. 6'2" 129 lbs isn't possible. No way. I'm 6'2" 180 and am looked at as light.

I wish I had the poor genetics to be 6'2 and also the freedom to eat infinite calories...

You just need to eat more and lift heavy unless you're in the .01% that actually has a disorder/disease.

Holy crap yoyobo.. How tall is cory hill? He was a freak and he weighed almost 30 lbs more.

No disorder. Maybe I could out on some weight if I hired someone and did everything right. I did try at one point though. Training almost every day and eat w/e I want and gain nothing though.

Really not as bad as it sounds I don't think. People don't look at me and go like WOW! Lol.

Corey hill: 6'4

I guess Will Chope is 6'4 and makes FW so it's very possible. Pretty crazy you're significantly taller and lighter than me, I don't think i've met anyone taller than me who would be below 130ish

As someone who's naturally skinny and can eat whatever etc. but can't put on muscle well i'd definitely take our side over people who struggle with being overweight

I want a picture of yoyobo standing next to Mighty Mouse for comparison. If I cut weight i'd probably not quite make 125 but could definitely make 135 easily with my current frame, I might be able to get down to 125 with time but i'd literally have zero muscle and be badly dehydrated. If I actually worked out and added muscle mass i'd walk around at 155-160 probably and cut to FW or something. The thought that i'm in the same weight class as Aldo/Mendes if I worked out is scary to me. That would go poorly for me.

I remember at the convention I went to with Elliot we saw some of the guys like MM and he's so short it's crazy, I ran into Scott Jorgensen around Vegas at least 3-4 times in summer '13 and I think I was about the same weight as him although he was shorter/more muscular. Bang Ludwig was *slightly* bigger than I expected and was also seemed to be one of the nicest people ever.

Also, Bonnar, Tito and to a lesser extent Drysdale are fkn huge. The LHWs are BIG guys. Bonnar and Tito are way bigger than they look on TV

I'm still always surprised by how big 205 fighters...

Weidman is also huge IRL he looks like he could easily move up in weight at some point.