Chael Sonnen 1k to win $222. ONE TIME

high rollers itt lol

Nate Diaz announced to fight Jim Miller UFC on FOX3. Should be an interesting contrast of styles. Won't be as lopsided as Miller's mismatch against Guillard as Diaz is a better striker with improving defense. Guillards punches couldn't stop or even slow Miller, that fight was just a matter of time before it hit the mat for the tapout. I think this fight will be more interesting, but considering noone has ever stopped Miller, gotta wonder if this fight will eventually get to the ground with Diaz tap tap tapping?

i think Miller can do very well in this fight. Not sure i'd say hes a favorite, but he could manhandle Nate and hold his own on the ground imo.

i guess the idea is Davis pure wrestling is enough to give him a decent chance? No idea, i really like Rashad at these odds.


I also like Weidman at current line. I really thought it would come out Maia as a favorite so i could pound the line, but i still like it somewhat.

Apex, if Marv trained BJ for the fight id bet a ton on BJ.


nate vs jim miller is a badass fight. I think the winner gets the next shot at 155, eh maybe a little early for diaz but he has some hype behind him after those last 2 crushings and miller is the only guy on a 'streak

yeah thats the idea for davis but i think its way way off?

lol Miller will NOT be tapping Diaz.

I favor Diaz in that fight. Miller's standup just has not looked good in his last couple of fights. Of course, he could lay and pray his way to a decision.

This fight has unam decision written all over it and no, miller is not subbing nate.

Seems like the fight going the distance is the best bet. Although Diaz hands are strong, Miller's jaw is rock solid, noone has ever stopped him. Miller won't be able to knock him out standing and Diaz submission defense is solid. He has only been submitted once in his career around 6 years ago. I still think Miller is the class fighter here, and will find a way to get the decision by taking it to the ground enough to avoid an alll out stand up fight.

Seems like a fight destined to go the distance, as Miller has never been stopped, and Nate has only been stopped once....almost 6 years ago. Miller has the more impressive pedigree, as Diaz is 5-5 in his last ten, and Miller's only loss in the past 3 years was when he had mononucleosis and a kidney infection.

What was his excuse vs Bendo, was he sick that time? We'll see how much bigger Nate is than Miller though, most of Nate's recent losses has come against wrestling/grappling strong welterweights and Nate has looked incredible in his last fights, so remains to see how much he has improved his TDD. It's pretty clear he's going to have the advantage on the feet though, easily, but Miller is going to be the one who pushes forward so will definitely be an interesting fight.

that 5-5 is deceptive. Hes looked beast since the yungn handled him...

^^ yes the sickness was against bendo afaik

Yes he said he had both mono and a kidney infection for the Bendo fight.

then why'd he fight? Dunno how this all went down but it's just beyond stupid to fight injured and "whine" after u loose. I really like the guy as a fighter, but if you choose to fight injured take the loss like a man.

If the odds are around even I'm definately betting on Nate, he's gonna have the size and the edge in the standup (been looking so much like Nick in his last 2 fights). I don't see either of them getting finished so would maybe play a dec, but the odds will probably display that these guys have granite jaws and solid sub defense. If it somehow does get finished it's probably gonna be somone catching the other guy in sub. Maybe in a scramble and/or after rocking him - but a clean KO/TKO just seems impossible between these guys.

But awesome fight that I'm really looking forwards to!

Diaz being "5-5 in his last 10" is extremely deceptive. Two of those losses were to welterweights who are also power grapplers. So much bigger guys who also happen to be his toughest stylistic matchup. Some, including myself, thought he actually beat Kim. So there's that. Two more of the losses were split decisions, and I felt he was on the wrong end of another mistaken judges' decision against Maynard, who went on to fight the champ to a draw. So even counting his SD loss to Guida(which I thought was a correct decision) he only has 2 "bad" losses in the last 3 years, and both were at the far end of that.

Early bets on Roop +115 and Sonnen by Dec -140.

I cannot believe the odds being offered on this coming ufc on fox card.

Damian Maia an underdog??!?!? Huge value. Maia has only been KO'd once by Nate. As good as Weidman has looked in his previous fights - this is a huge step up in competition. Yes Weidman has great wrestling but he's no Mark Munoz - I really see the true odds being -200 Maia

I think the Sonnen line is pretty fair.

And there has to be some value in the Rashad line. No way you can go from fighting Nog (ranked 10?) to rashad (ranked 2-3) and not be a big underdog.

Added Sonnen/Evans/Beltran/Oliveira parlay

weidman is seriously better than munoz at everything in regards to mma. And that includes his wrestling.

It's not that I think that Weidman is a joke. But he has two realistic routes to victory - KO maia or wrestle and out point. I see the KO being pretty unlikely and well - Maia isn't a slouch on the ground, regardless of position. Yes Weidman is the no.1 prospect of 185 but still, Maia is an established fighter who deservesa top 7 ranking (5-7) the line can't be right with Maia at +128

I wont say your bet is bad, i just disagreed with using Munoz as some kind of reference. Weidman sure is no Munoz, hes actually quite a lot better than him.


For anyone betting this fight, this video is highly relevant in my opinion.



Weidman clearly lost, but he shows he can hang with the absolute elite in grappling. Galvao is an elite grappler, probably on the same level as Maia if not better. (i can't really judge as i don't train bjj, Galvaos merits speaks for itself though)
And this was more than 2 years ago, so weidman should have improved from this.

Galvao has also evolved a ton since then aswell, not that he wasn't a beast back then but I'm not sure he would "hang" with Galvao if they grappled today. Besides "MMA grappling" is obv. a bit different and I still think Maia has the edge in that regard.

Even with his sick grappling progress and his #1 prospect status, it's a big step up in MMA competition and IMO there must be value in Maia as an underdog.

how do you guys feel about condit at +130 ?

I think all the value is on Diaz. I cannot figure out how condit is going to win this fight. I mean he's a terrific fighter but diaz is a monster standing and has unreal bjj. If Condit was a smothering wrestler - well it would be a different story but i definitely don't see diaz getting ko'd or submitted (maybe 5% chance?) and out pointed??? very unlikely with a judge friendly stand-up style that pushes the pace. I don't think condit is going to have enough room to through leg kicks so that won't even be a factor. diaz all the way until -225

Added a quarter unit on Dunham and a quarter unit on Roop to go with my 2 units on Rashad.

Considering a quarter on Bisping too but havent done it yet (odds play; he loses over half but wins enough to warrant it as +390 dog imo) and i'll probably bet the Maia/Weidman and Russow/Einemo fights too just havent decided which side I like yet, rewatching some fights first.

I'll probably also do some sort of Oliveira/Evans/Dunham parlay mixed in with a few other fighters as well, haven't decided yet.

I don't think there's any value to be had on Bisping tbh, even at +390. Sonnen has never been clean tko'd and bisping isn't going to be the first to do so with pillows in his hands. Beside, his bjj isnt on that level that he can sub chael.

The predictors I watch have said Russow over Einemo. I haven't watched any Weidman fights so can't say anything about that.

only way bisping wins this fight is if they bring back the judges from bisbing hammil