I thought it was a 5rd.., I saw 5/6 on the itd and thought bridge jump.

Lot of MMA math points to this fight ending itd (3rd).

Cracking weekend of fights !

I'm big on Barao at +115. He's a better striker than Sterling and never been taken down in the UFC. Also semi-big on Lamas at +110 vs Knight. This is a big step up for Knight.

Now just watched the UFC 214 press conference. I know they are wearing shoes, sneakers in Tyron's case and I couldn't see Damien's feet. But holy cow, it appeared to me that Demian towered over Tyron and his head was also twice as big.

Woodley is so inactive at times like in the Thompson fight and also backs up into the fence willingly. I believe Maia can take him down in the middle of the cage or even take his back without taking him down against the cage. Maia also said his five week camp went great with no room for mistakes and no mistakes made. I'm not waiting for the weigh-ins: 2u on Maia at +185 and .35u on Maia by submission at +315.

I'm pretty high on barao here as well which was why I was wondering about ppl backing aljo. It's about the worst matchup possible for aljo and getting dog odds on barao is nice.

why not be bigger on Maia by sub? He never kos woodley and I don't see him winning a decision in 5 rounds Bc even if he controls 3 rounds he tends to tire and get sloppy on tds late in fights.

maia seems like a risky one here, i dunno why im going to avoid this one. woodley never been subbed before either.

I don't think it's beyond the realm of feasibility that Maia gets a TKO if he's got Woodley in a body triangle around his waist on the ground punching his head or something like that, or even wins a five round decision if he gets enough takedowns even late in the fight like he did against Masvidal in round 3. At +185 I'm happier to mostly play the moneyline at +185 to cover every opportunity of him winning rather than mostly play props and be pissed off when the dog I am backing somehow wins via a method most people don't expect.

Yeah I'm not 100% confident Maia will be able to crack Woodley's takedown defense, but I can definitely see him backpacking Woodley on the fence for a big chunk of time like he did against Masvidal and a few others.

I think Maia gets Woodley's back standing a lot due to Woodley backing up into the cage, Maia can't outstrike Woodley standing but Woodley isnt the type of guy to take the center of the octagon which is what he should do in theory against a grappler, he backs up when pressured and looks to counter

I'm going to be on Maia, but still waiting for now as people love to bet on Woodley and if it starts to swing back I should have plenty of time to grab +175 somewhere, still holding out hope I get +200

I still think that despite it being a bad stylistic matchup for Maia that the fight is close to a coinflip

you're aware you can bet maia at +198 now right?

Which book? The best i'm seeing is +180ish (and +185 earlier today)

He's +198 on betfair, but that's pre-vig and also only $46 liquidity - is that what you were talking about?

I'll take the 500 or so on offer at +192 or better if I have to in the end (although with vig thats only +18x) but I kind of expect the line movement to stay on the Woodley side given his steam relative to Maia's steam history in previous fights. I can always throw up an offer on matchbook on fight day if I need to.

So many live dogs on this card. I'm biggest on Barao & then Maia, smaller on the others and on the unders or fight does not go distance only on Lawler/Cerrone and Manuwa/Oezdemir.

Maia
Cerrone
Oezdemir
Lamas
Barao
Curran
Shelton

Similar to jim with few exceptions. Bets so far.

2u on barao (might move to 5u by fight night) +100
2u on lamas +110
0.43u on lamas / barao / Maia ~+1150
0.5u on Manuwa -180 (will be 1 or 2 units by fight time)
0.5u on lawler -160 (will be 1 or 2 units by fight time)
0.5 on Maia +170 (will be 2u by fight)

Like the ends in 1 or 2 rd in the Maia woodley fight at about evens. Will be on a lot of itd props for that.

Know manuwa is chinny but I think he starches ozedemir. The circunov ko is so flukey idk how much credit you can give him there and he lost that osp fight so maybe he is good, but I think he's more lucky than good.

I have a hard time picking cowboy fights but I'll just fade him against top guys forever. Risk is if Robbie's chin is shot or he gets tapped.

Single - Robbie Lawler vs Donald Cerrone
No - Fight to go the Distance?
Odds: 5/6
1 lines at £125.00 per line
Total Stake for this bet: £125.00
Potential Return:£229.17

Why you guys think Lawler v Cerrone won't go the distance in 3 rounds?

Short post but its the same point ive made before about the fighters having such differences in length speed i guess style, but both displaying such lethelness and power.

Couple that with the slow starts of cowboy (lawlers tream will be all over that).

And both have been clean ko recently, both are soild thou obviously

One of them is going to get caught with some thing, these are two no joke guys to the absolute max, and awarning i would not ship more than two units if you are going that way, on lawler.

cowboy doesnt have the defense to handle lawless.

Edit: gripping fight.

It'd weird I used to disagree with Balla on everything but i've been agreeing a lot lately. I think Lawler KOs Cerrone cold if I have to pick a specific outcome and i'm very tempted to get on Lawler KO

Still no bets for me although i'm definitely going to be on Maia and Lawler in some capacity and i'm likely to be on some combination of Barao (forgot about the stylistic MU with his TDD when I originally liked Sterling, even washed up Barao should handle Sterling standing), Moicano or Moicano dec, maybe Albu just as a fade on Curran who I like but who is too prone to making mistakes and Albu seems like a prospect, Shelton as a small dog and Burkman as a big dog, Jones in some capacity and maybe Knight but I kind of wanted a better price there was hoping to get him as a dog.

Does anyone else think Moicano just UDs Ortega easily? Ortega's arguably lost over half the rounds in his last 3 fights all of which were late finishes. Moicano seems to be a defensively sound point fighter and he managed to outstrike Jeremy Stephens so he should be about to outstrike Ortega, as long as he doesn't get caught with something big he should win a decision a lot.

Ortega's also coming off a long layoff and he's basically the least impressive undefeated prospect despite his finish streak and fights generally being good he looks very much like he's due to lose one.

What about Bones/DC to go the distance at -160?

Have a hard time seeing either 1 of them finishing inside distance.

When placing my ITD, got cowboy vibes as the W, lawless is a cold dude so its hard to get any impression but Cowboy is BIG,

We all have our paths to go down, I'm reading this as Cowboy ITD by KO.

This goes against what I know and the logic of the set up but I'm listening to inner self about this. Helps the odds are 11/2 ffs which is little offkey tbh.

Lawless is a less capable striker than cowboy, in this fight any thing can happen.

Neither of these guys are aiming for a SUB imo, that is not the done thing in this fight, they both know what time it is.

Lot of us here are doing Kaizen event by event, a bet loss is not a loss if it was a bet thought and felt through.

Its fine to bet either lawless or cowboy here, they sure as hell are going to do what ever they like in the cage.

Lawless needs a certain kind of fight for his genius to appear, no question he has it, but he doesn't come into the cage and lead guys into traps and off the bat crush via chess other fighters, he is a brawler, he needs to warm up kind of like cerrino (to get the best out of him).

If my cowboy by KO prop wins, half the prop winnings go to charity and dedicated to the awesome that is this thread.

awesome weekend card! excited for this one.

Edit: I am looking forward to seeing Manuwa fight, not just because I am from London, but because I am very impressed with his tremendous destructive capability's. The guy is an absolutely beast. Volkan Oezdemir is special so this is a must see fight.

I'm also on Cowboy ML, Cowboy by KO as well as the under 2½ rounds. Two articles on MMA Fighting that I read so far gave me pause about Robbie- first one where he said that it was a hard camp with good friend Matt Hughes so badly injured and the second one where former coach and long time friend Pat Miletich said that this is a bad matchup for Robbie coming back from a brutal knockout and long layoff. Self doubt and a friend's doubt are not good signs. Of course I am also taking Cowboy's kicking game and + odds into account.

Interesting. Maybe i'll take the under then. I thought Robbie's relentless pressure and punching power would be too much for Cowboy who can wilt under pressure but crushes when he's the guy doing the bullying

Maybe i'll look at a fight ends by KO prop for either fighter. Still haven't fired any bets but i'm going to later tonight.

Bad camp for Lawler is worrying, but there's also the issue of Cowboy's blood poisoning that cancelled this fight the first time that could still be an issue with him not being 100% as it's only been a month

The more I think about it the more tempted I am to play fight doesn't go the distance instead. Cowboy doesn't have Condit's chin (granted this is 3 rounds not 5) and Lawler did get KO'd in his last fight and is getting up there in wars and his chin could go full Liddell at any time too and these guys are going to go to war

Got my bets on for tonight.

Moicano at 1.7 for 1 unit
Barao at 2.1 for 1 unit ( took this after all the steam and seen most sharp bettors seem to be on Barao)
Cyborg at 1.1 for 5 units (Short odds but I think she is probably more like 1.05 here, Outside of a freak injury don't see how she loses.)

Did like Lawler and Woodley but after doing a bit more research think I'll pass on them and just enjoy the fights.

Not bet Cormier but really hope he finds a way to beat Jones. Such a smug prick and ****ty individual. Will be awesome when someone finally beats him.

Fired my first few bets in

I have

10.3u Maia +175

Bad matchup for him but I still think he's underrated somehow and he's improved a lot since being knocked out by Nate years ago at MW. I think he finds a way to latch onto Woodley's back at some point and finally realises his dream of wearing UFC gold. I think the fight's close to a flip and very happy to be on either guy as a substantial dog, in this case Maia. I get why the odds are where they are, I just don't think Woodley is as good as other people think he is and will continue to bet against him until he loses the belt (i'd snap take any of Wonderboy, Masvidal or Maia against him as a dog)

7.5u Cerrone/Lawler ends in TKO/KO/DQ +120

I was originally thinking Lawler here but I expect it to usually be by KO if he wins and Lawler being KO'd his last fight and potentially a rough camp led me to thinking this is better value having a Cerrone KO hedge. Sure, I lose on a decision but it's an attractive price and I think the fight ends by TKO about half the time so happy with +120 here.

6.25u Shelton +130

I actually bet slightly more than I intended here should have gone more like 4u, but it feels like this fight is a flip, granted i'm a lot more familiar with Shelton than Brooks but Shelton's faced the tougher competition and i'm not sure that he should be a dog after losing a split decision to Pantoja who has proven himself to be legit.

4.75u Barao -103

I originally leaned the other way here then remembered that Barao has godly TDD and even though he's a bit washed up this fight is in the special Barao weight class of 140 and I doubt Sterling can trouble him on the feet. If Sterling gets him down more than once he'll win, but have to bet on Barao's TDD holding up.

3.25u Moicano -154

I was going Moicano dec but the value just isn't there so took straight up. I think he does the same thing that he did to Jeremy Stephens only wins a more dominant decision here. Probably a 30-27 if I have to pick an outcome. Moicano seems to know how to gameplan, Ortega fights for the finish but is prone to giving rounds away against good fighters and if Stephens couldn't turn Moicano's lights out I doubt Ortega can very often which means he'd have to submit him which is also possible but doesn't seem super likely.

Probably going to do about 5u Jones -250 as well just waiting for a bet to grade. Just going straight up on the GOAT here, sure it's a long layoff but he's the younger fighter and it's not like DC is improving a lot, Jones might be off roids and did look worse than usual against OSP but i'm not sure that anyone can beat Jon Jones at LHW other than *maybe* Gustafsson who has a much better stylistic matchup than DC does - I mean if DC can't take Jones down at will, and he couldn't the first time, is he really going to win three rounds or crack Jones chin which we've seen is legit? I doubt it. I just don't think DC would win 3 times if they fought 10 times so I have to fire Jones straight up

Undecided on whether i'm firing Albu or not. I never got around to watching tape on her and it would be a pure fade on Curran, who is decent at winning rounds but also very good at making mistakes and getting finished. I'll probably pass as i'm too busy betting on Union etc tonight to actually do research on Albu tape. I'm leaning pass.

Same with Knight but leaning pass there, I was happy to bet him as a dog but I don't think I want to at -114 or whatever.

Also booked a few of Sect7G's DC props so hoping DC doesn't finish in r3-5, but not overly concerned about that, i'll take a 4-8u hit if he does and win a bit under a unit otherwise.

Burkman's tempting too but leaning pass there as well I guess, people are higher on Dober than I am and there must be a reason for that even if i'm not sure what it is beyond 'Burkman's lost a lot lately'.

0.5u Burkman +165
2u Shelton +125
1u Curran +135
3u fili -335
2u Moicano -145
3u Barao +105
2u Lamas +100
2u Cerrone +135
1u Mia +170
1u Jones -250

Decided to fire Jones+Cyborg+Fili for 5u as a parlay at -115 rather than betting any of them individually. Pretty sure we're live going into Jones barring MMA randomness.

That should do me for the card I guess.

Ricardo Lamas v Jason Knight is going to be a war, sick fight. going the distance vs Holloway (lamas) proves him on many levels but Knight is special and has proved his merit.

So many crazy fights to look forward to this card.

UFC 214 has to rank up in the top cards all time?

Edit: One of the fighters is going to be the dominate fighter in there...