UFC on Fox 25 Risk $3132.50

Chris Weidman (+151) vs Kelvin Gastelum $300.00 for $453.00
Chris Weidman +5½ points (-120) $240.00 for $200.00
Chris Weidman wins in round 1 (+1005) $25.00 for $251.25
Chris Weidman wins in round 1 or 2 (+620) ~$28.00 for ~$173.60
Chris Weidman By KO/TKO/DQ (+455) $50.00 for $227.50
Chris Weidman wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+929) $25.00 for $232.25
Kelvin Gastelum wins in round 3 (+795) $20.00 for $159.00
Kelvin Gastelum wins in round 4 (+1181) $20.00 for $236.20

Darren Elkins +3½ points (-140) vs Dennis Bermudez $140.00 for $100.00

Gian Villante/Patrick Cummins Under 1½ (+150) $75.00 for $112.50
Gian Villante By KO/TKO/DQ (+135) $50.00 for $67.50

Thomas Almeida (+175) vs Jimmie Rivera $100.00 for $175.00
Jimmie Rivera wins by decision (+131) $50.00 for $65.50

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+145) vs Lyman Good $100.00 for $145.00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins in round 3 (+1850) $15.00 for $277.50
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 3 (+2500) ~$14.00 for ~$350.00

Rafael Natal (+105) vs Eryk Anders $200.00 for $210.00
Rafael Natal +3½ points (-165) $165.00 for $100.00

Alex Oliveira (+165) vs Ryan LaFlare $100.00 for $165.00
Alex Oliveira wins in round 3 (+1800) $10.00 for $180.00
Ryan LaFlare wins by decision (-110) $55.00 for $50.00

Chase Sherman/Damian Grabowski Over 1½ (+132) $75.00 for $99.00
Chase Sherman wins in round 2 (+575) $20.00 for $115.00

Jeremy Kennedy/Kyle Bochniak Under 2½ (+253) $25.00 for $63.25

Brian Kelleher/Marlon Vera won’t go 3 round distance (-125) $62.50 for $50.00

Timothy Johnson (-250) vs Junior Albini $250.00 for $100.00
Timothy Johnson (-261) vs Junior Albini $261.00 for $100.00
Timothy Johnson wins in round 2 (+500) $10.00 for $50.00
Timothy Johnson wins in round 3 (+900) $10.00 for $90.00

Godofredo Pepey (+540) vs Shane Burgos $100.00 for $540.00
Godofredo Pepey wins by submission (+710) $30.00 for $213.00
Shane Burgos wins by TKO/KO (-163) $163.00 for $100.00
Godofredo Pepey/Shane Burgos Under 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00

Chris Wade wins by 3 round decision (-120) vs Frankie Perez $36.00 for $30.00

Gian Villante wins Fastest KO (+600) $10.00 for $60.00
Brian Kelleher wins Fastest Submission (+625) $10.00 for $62.50
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos/Lyman Good FOTN award winner (+750) $10.00 for $75.00

NY Parlay:
Chris Wade (-338) vs Frankie Perez + Rafael Natal (-104) vs Eryk Anders + Gian Villante (-181) vs Patrick Cummins + Chris Weidman (+137) vs Kelvin Gastelum $100.00 for $835.26

Round Robin of two-team parlays. Risk ~$28.00
Denis Bermudez/Darren Elkins bout ends in round 3 (+900)
Gian Villante/Patrick Cummins bout ends in round 3 (+800)
Thomas Almeida/Jimmie Rivera bout ends in round 3 (+700)
Elizeu Zalesi dos Santos /Lyman Good bout ends in round 3 (+900)
Rafael Natal/Eryk Anders bout ends in round 3 (+600)
Alex Oliveira/Ryan LaFlare bout ends in round 3 (+1100)
Chase Sherman/Damian Grabowski bout ends in round 3 (+750)
Jeremy Kennedy/Kyle Bochniak bout ends in round 3 (+1000)
Brian Kelleher/Marlon Vera bouts ends in round 3 (+750)
Timothy Johnson/Junior Albini bout ends in round 3 (+700)
Godofredo Pepey/Shane Burgos bout ends in round 3 (+700)
Chris Wade/Frankie Perez bout ends in round 3 (+1000)

Feel like Weidman will likely win round 1 and 2 most of the time with a grappling heavy approach to take advantage of the big size difference. Question is, can Kelvin scramble well enough to overcome the size and can he survive? If he can then he'll probably take over from round 3 onwards likely towards a KO with his better boxing and superior speed and gas tank. don't see Weidman lasting 5 rounds that often with his cardio and the speed of Kelvin so I like Balla's bets of Weidman by KO/SUB and Kelvin by KO.

3u Kelvin by KO + 200

2u Weidman by KO/SUB + 300

Added: Alex Oliveira wins by submission (+1045) $25.00 for $261.25

So does anybody else think Rivera won round 1 10-8 .

Catching the latter part of the card. Punting on Gastelum -150 and Elkins +180. Think Weidman might just be done, and Elkins is the man xd

Cummins had a brilliant gameplan. The commentary was bang on. The wrestling prevented the better striker from getting loose. And Cummins is just one of the rare breed of fighter that doesn't get affected by tough situations.

To beat Cummins you have to hit him fast and hard like Villante did in r1 and get him out of there because there are very few fighters that can win r3 vs. Cummins yet most of the roster can win r1 vs. him.

I'm picking Gastellum via TKO/KO in r3/4.

Kinda disagree with the judges In the Bermudez Elkins fight I had Elkins winning R1 and Bermudez winning 2 and 3

Same here.

Wow did not expect that tbh... Very big win for Weidman and it gets his career back on track.

R1/2 went exactly as I expected with Weidman getting td and td. 2 things that slightly shocked me was Gastellum's r1 big punch... and Gastellum not working hard enough on his back in R2.

R3 went how I expected it as Gastellum fought with much more tenacity... but I was honestly shocked that Weidman got the sub. I figured Weidmans strategy was to win via Decision by doing just enough each round to win it but not so much to risk burning his gas tank.

Strange how Gastelum let Chris dictate each round. Even in the 3rd were it looked like he was coming out aggro and chris looked like he could be in trouble, he just let Chris sub him without any work to get off the ground. Seems unusual as Kevin is usually always trying to get up after been taken down.

Got crushed last night.
Laflare getting knocked out was little surprising but seems I under estimated Brazilian cowboy. Bermudez had all the tools to win that fight but he fought too wild and payed the price.

Had a small amount on Gastelum and he just couldn't cope with the size difference.

I would be really interested to see how efficient the closing lines are in MMA. Because sometimes there just seems some really absurd movement like Shane Burgos going from 1.33 to 1.10.

I can give you a little bit of info on this. I made a post a while back about the closing line on pinnacle. I was looking at UFC PPVs from 142-210. Pinny picked the winner 64% of the time. This isn't the best measure, obviously, but by other scoring criteria they don't do that much better. On a scoring criteria which has perfect predictions at 0, assuming every fight is 50/50 at 0.25, and a coin picking the winner at 0.5, pinnacle scored a bit over 0.2. FWIW my guess is that really good predictions in MMA could get as low as 0.15.

Good card for me just went 1-0 on my 10u Weidman +150. Shame I didn't like the stylistic MU for Elkins as I almost always bet him as a dog and he continues to win. Had a lean on Cummins too but the steam on Villante scared me off. Would have bricked Almeida KO if i'd played that fight.

Anyway erases most of the damage from the last card, on to the big one for 214.

My early leans at current lines

Jones -245 (maybe Jones -5.5 pts if its at evens or so when props are out)
Sterling -129 (possibly Sterling by decision once props out)
Moicano decision is tempting if price is decent
Lawler -152 (Lawler by TKO/KO is tempting if price is solid)
Maybe Albu -141 if she's a good prospect? Need to watch some tape, Curran is fine at winning rounds but is very prone to making mistakes. Maybe Albu ITD even.
Maia +170 looks good but hoping to get closer to +200 by fight time. There's also a chance the Maia by decision or submission prop at b365 could be good as they often misprice those and if it's more than a few cents better than straight up i'd take that as obviously Maia isn't going to win by KO vs Woodley. Same deal with Wooldey by KO or decision if that's badly mispriced as a hedge.
Shelton is tempting at +135 but I don't know much about Brooks
Burkman is tempting at +256. Yeah, he's a dog but probably not that much of one despite his bad run it's not like Burkman is a world beater.
Cyborg fight is generally unbettable
Nothing seems super appealing in Oezdemir vs Manuwa unless there's a good 'either fighter by TKO' prop closer to fight day
No interest in either side of Knight/Lamas, was hoping to get Knight as a big dog.
No interest in the Fili fight as I know zero about Kattar

Not Woodley by submission is probably value against Maia at -6000 as ridic as that is. He probably attempts a submission 1 in every 50 fights if that even from top position why would he bother he'd just throw GnP

No bets yet but I expect to bet at least 6-7 fights this next card and i'd be surprised if i'm not on Maia, Sterling, Lawler and Jones in some capacity. Pretty likely to bet Moicano, Albu, Shelton and Burkman as well but going to wait for more lines and do more research first

Next card I got Lawler (-150) 4.5u to win 3u

and Aljo (-140) 2.8u to win 2u

Good luck everyone

Lost 0.8u last card. Needed bermudez to win the split. Judges called it correctly tho.

Fili should be -800ish here imo. Just put down 3u on him at -335.

Besides that think 214 will be the night of the underdogs.

Where do you guys get useful info on non UFC fighters in the lower leagues? Like I'm trying to cap the dwtncs but having a hard time as well as getting any info on kattar for Saturday.


Also Barao has like 95% Tdd lifetime, why do you like aljo here? Just fading a guy who the sport passed up?

seeing nearly evens on a bet I know is going to go one way in the next card (weekend).

This is hugely dangerous because I am tempted to ship the largest MMA bet I have ever made this weekend (bridge jump) and I don't want to do that even if its 95.99% bet but *** that I am betting it.

Edit: waiting on feedback

Double edit: I might actually be saved because my necessary is not available till Monday (wages boy). Still shipping £500 on it.

What's the fight balla? You honeydicking us with that post.

DWTNCS 3 Risk $932.00

Ryan Spann (-120) vs Karl Roberson $240.00 for $200.00
Ryan Spann/Karl Roberson Under 1½ (+130) $75.00 for $97.50

Jason Jackson (-160) vs Kyle Stewart $160.00 for $100.00

Geoffrey Neal (+110) vs Chase Waldon $100.00 for $110.00
Geoffrey Neal (-115) vs Chase Waldon $115.00 for $100.00
Geoffrey Neal/Chase Waldon Under 1½ (+125) $50.00 for $62.50

Alonzo Menifield/Daniel Jolly Under 1½ (-230) $92.00 for $40.00

Luis Gomez (+145) vs Dan Ige $100.00 for $145.00

Spann -135 2u
Jackson -65 1u
Neal -135 2u
Jolly +290 0.5u
Gomez -140 1u

Seems like we are on the same sides Jimgunn. GL!

cowboy lawler,

Maybe I'm missing something, but how is Lawler-Cerrone a fight you can be that certain about on either side?

Also where are you getting close to even money on either of them? It's been around -150/+130 pretty much since open at most books...

I'm guessing Lawler by KO? Cowboy has poor striking defence and gets rocked/hurt a lot.

Edit. Probably not that, just checked and its around +200

the contender fights were ok, snoop was hilarious lol. he seems high af 100% of the time.

that ankle pop tho, didnt even see it was from the big shot against the cage. it was worse than crocop.

and that short elbows KO from roberson was sickk

I've backed off my sterling read a bit.

Which side on Cowboy Lawler Balla? I feel like Lawler just kos him cold a lot but would be more confident in 5 rounds than 3. I like Lawler but not for a huge bet or anything