Hunt if it's mostly contested standing, or Lewis if it's mostly contested with Lewis on top of Hunt but unable to finish him

It won't go the distance often though, Lewis rarely tries to grapple as much as he should and Hunt will just stand and bang as always. If Lewis gets on top of Hunt he probably does have the power to eventually hulk-smash a TKO stoppage even if not immediately. If it stays standing, it'll end via TKO (something like 85% Hunt 15% Lewis or thereabouts, Lewis basically just has a puncher's chance because it's HW)

@Ozexorcist if you decide you want Lewis splitting the difference on the current line i'm happy to take Hunt for up to a few hundred, Current 5d line is Lewis -135/Hunt +105, i'd happily take Hunt +115 if you or anyone else wants Lewis at -115 for up to 500 max (best Lewis price available atm is -130)

Also no lines out for Cerrone/Lawler but i'd happily take Lawler -110 if anyone wants Cerrone +110 for up to 500 as well.

Every thirty seconds of the fight, the win % for Lewis drops. If he wins, he is TKO/KOing Hunt in R1.

Lawler will smash cowboy and most here are cowboy fans (me include), totally wrong match up for Cowboy,

Swoop who you got Jose Aldo v Max Holloway?

I am big Holloway fan, guy is air of karmic Hawaii through the matrix, guy is timeless classic, completely convinced about him straight down the line.

Every time I ever watched Jose Aldo he was getting his face smashed in by Conor.

Holloway is quality,

Can't picture Rory losing to Daley. Loaded up on Cavs tonight with Rory as a 2 teamer.

Also going big on Rory-Gus as well. I'm a Glover fan but Gus is too tough a challenge, Glover is old and looks too unathletic to compete vs a stud like Gus.

Smallish 2teamers;
Rory/Liam
Rory/Aldo (Halloway is amazing, Aldo's still the man at 45)


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I love Holloway and dislike Aldo so I really want Holloway to win and Holloway's young and improving but I don't think he's good enough to beat Aldo yet - I can see it being a close competitive fight, but if I bet on it i'll be taking the Aldo -129 the way he outclassed Edgar and Mendes (with Mendes possibly roided) twice just leads me to believe you need to be bigger than him and more powerful to win and while Holloway is bigger than Aldo, i'm not sure he has the power to put Aldo down and keep him down and decisioning Aldo is going to be tough for anyone. It'll be a great fight though. If Holloway can outstrike Aldo and stuff his takedowns if Aldo resorts to wrestling then he can definitely win, it's just a question of how fast and precise are his hands compared to Aldo and how good his TDD is. Aldo hasn't had to wrestle against anyone in the UFC really (or didnt have a chance to against Conor) so who knows.

I'm probably going to just not bet it and cheer for Holloway but if I do bet it'll be Aldo most likely.

At this point I don't think Aldo loses at 145 unless he fights Conor again and Conor will never fight at 145 again so I expect Aldo to hold the belt until he gets too old/too battle worn which may still be a couple years away

I can't see Rory losing to Daly either unless he lands a big punch to re-break his nose early in the first then anything is possible. I expect Rory will just take him down and GnP or submit him pretty easily.

Is Waldo serious about quitting the UFC for football? I hope it's not another ****ty performance because he's retiring anyway, like AJ. Agreed I really don't see him losing to Max. For his age though Max is pretty special, I think he'll be champ one day, just not yet imo.

I'm still not sure about the Hunt fight, I just see him losing somehow to Lewis, Hunt seems so slow nowadays, everything he throws is telegraphed I'm not convinced this ends in KO either. Lewis should outwork him too imo, granted it's HW so KO should be taken into consideration.

Lawler should be the bet imo.

Gustaffson ftw too.

1u Rory Mac -310 for Bellator - I don't see Daley knocking him out more than about 1 in 5 times (he probably needs to break Rory's nose with the first punch to have a real shot) and Daley basically never wins without knocking Rory out unless Rory is mentally destroyed, which I doubt as he should be motivated for his Bellator debut. Just the single unit though as Rory is a pretty big favourite and there's the relative unknown factor due to long layoff/new promotion/coming off a lackluster performance against Wonderboy, granted Wonderboy is worlds better than Daley especially at range on the feet and as far as I know Wonderboy has better TDD as well

I'd love to fade Kongo but his opponent seems to have faced cans and gone to a draw with a guy with an unimpressive record. No real leans on Vassell/McGeary at the current price seems about right but I haven't watched either guy fight recently, the last McGeary fight I saw was Tito and the last Vassell fight I saw was one of the Newton fights I think.

First i'd heard about Aldo quitting the UFC for football, is that a thing? One of the reasons I haven't fired Aldo is he could be losing his motivation given he seems to be dissatisfied in the UFC and there's basically no chance he gets a Conor rematch without moving up to 155 which he can do with or without the belt. I still think Aldo should win on skillset but Holloway definitely wants it badly and has been better every time we've seen him so no bet yet either way for me.

One bet for me tonight Linton Vassell at 2.87.

Only really bet it for a sweat and because I saw his odds moving in on Pinny and 5dimes.
Should be a good event and a rare one that I get to watch live being in the UK.

I'm posting a little late with the card already started, but I've avoided spoilers to this point, so hopefully I'll see good results when I watch on Spike this evening.

Bellator 179 Risk $735.00

Rory MacDonald (-215) vs Paul Daley $537.50 for $250.00
Linton Vassell (+170) vs Liam McGeary $100.00 for $170.00

Parlay:
Cheick Kongo/Augusto Sakai starts round 2 (-294) + Rory MacDonald/Paul Daley starts round 3 (-169) ~$97.50 for ~$110.18

Titan FC 44 Risk $177.50

Jose Torres/Farkhad Sharipov does not start round 5 (-111) ~$97.50 for ~$87.84
Gesias Cavalcante (+235) vs Kurt Holobaugh $50.00 for $117.50
Robert Turnquest (+175) vs Marc Stevens $30.00 for $52.50

Is the KK v CG 3 or 5 rounds?

I don't know if I necessarily agree with your analysis re: Holloway vs Aldo.

In my opinion, Aldo is a nightmare matchup for the wrestler who doesn't have reach on him, since he has brutal leg kicks, great take down defense, and great BJJ. Edgar, Mendes, and Urijah all fit this profile.

But Holloway is a long and tall striker who has very dynamic footwork and is great at fighting at range. If you were to compare him to the opponents that Jose's fought in the past, the closest matchup would be McGregor, and we all know how that ended.

IMO, I think this fight depends on how effectively Holloway can counter punch. If you watch Jose Aldo's fights against taller fighters, what he does is he charges in with punches to close the distance. Florian's response to this was to try to take him down, whereas McGregor sniped him with a straight left and scored the KO. If Holloway can tag him accurately when he's coming in, then I could see Holloway having a very good night against him.

But I'm just a casual MMA bettor, so take my analysis for what's it's worth (probably not very much.)

Hesdy Gerges is due for a win in Glory after losing some close and controversial decisions, especially against a very short notice replacement and former training partner Tomas Hron who is in for British brawler Chi Lewis-Parry on very short notice. Murthel Groenhart is also fighting a late replacement Alan Scheinson who stepped in for the much tougher Harut Grigorian. I expect RvR to be able to handle the smaller Thai fighter Petchpanomrung at featherweight easier than he did against the larger muay thai stylist Sittichai at lightweight.

Glory 41 Risk $635.00

Hesdy Gerges (-235) vs Tomas Hron $235.00 for $100.00

Parlay:
Murthel Groenhart (-475) vs Alan Scheinson + Robin van Roosmalen (-365) vs Petchpanomrung Kiatmookao $400.00 for $216.87

Invicta FC 23 Risk $517.20

Vanessa Porto (+176) vs Agnieszka Niedzwiedz $50.00 for $88.00
Vanessa Porto (+145) vs Agniezka Niedzwiedz $50.00 for $72.50
Roxanne Modafferi (+195) vs Sarah D'Alelio $50.00 for $97.50
Roxanne Modafferi (+115) vs Sarah D'Alelio $50.00 for $57.50
Tessa Simpson (+140) Herica Tiburcio $40.00 for $56.00
Tiffany Van Soest (-113) vs Christine Ferea ~$131.20 for ~$116.11

Parlay:
Kelly Faszholz (-210) vs Elizabeth Phillips + Andrea Lee (-700) vs Liz Tracy $146.00 for ~$100.31

I think the difference is while Holloway has power he doesn't have Conor level power. Mendes has decent power too and he couldn't put Aldo out despite connecting on many occasions.

Holloway's best shot is to outstrike Aldo at range and rack up a decision or accumulation of damage TKO which can do do, but we haven't seen anyone do that to Aldo yet.

And the fight takes place in Brazil so Holloway is going to have to clearly win a round to win a round.

Kowalkiewicz-Gadelha?

It's not the main event and it's not for a belt, so it'll be three rounds.

I'm pretty high on both ladies but leaning Gadelha, basically Karolina has to stuff all of her takedowns to win. No bet at the current prices though

Just got 5u Gustafsson -175 from opening lines so far for this weekends card, nothing i'm super excited about on the rest of the card but

Actually starting to think Glover might be value if it gets much higher than the +280 currently available but not going to arb it unless it gets to +380 or something ridiculous and Glover looks good at weigh in. He could be carrying an injury or something -175 to -340 is a LOT of steam pre-weigh in. I originally thought Gustafsson was a -220 range favourite but given the steam may have some valid reason behind it he may be a bigger fav than that.

Maybe Musoke? Will take a better look later on

Dillashaw expects to fight mighty mouse if Garbrandt fight falls thru due to back injury. hopefully Garbrandt heals up and fight stays on course as that's the best fight in terms of matchup & excitement but its not looking likely

Last night got on Gadelha at -275 on 5d , 2.75u to win 1u

it dropped all the way to -265.

I don't think anyone can stuff the TD on Claudia for the first 2 rounds and maybe even the 3rd, def not KK.

I'm on Joaquim Silva (-185) against Reza for the next event. 1.85u to win 1u

Haven't fired anything other than Gustafsson -175 yet, but kinda tempted by Saunders, Musoke, Ayari and Akhmedov. Is Ayari any good? His record seems decent for a debuting prospect and Till is coming off a huge layoff and I remember he gassed badly in the Dalby fight. Akhmedov has great offense and terrible defense and also seems like a live dog; Alhassan basically has no cage time and has been knocking out cans, anyone know how good he is? I haven't actually watched all of his fights but it looks like he's never been tested by a UFC level fighter and while Akhmedov isn't elite he is UFC level. Both tempting dog spots. Musoke and Saunders both feel like slightly bigger favs than the almost pickem lines they have. All four are pretty weak reads though. Pretty confident i'll be on all four in some capacity though unless anyone here thinks that Alhassan is a killer prospect who walks through Akhmedov or that Ayari sucks. Anyone like the same/other side on any of them?

Kinda want Held too but the price is too steep

Just watched Ayari's last fight against Wallhead. Moves pretty well but was constantly back tracking and pot shotting. Always tough to cap fight when a guy only has one fight in the UFC or coming from lesser known organisations.

My only bet is Gus at 1.57 and then bet him heavy again at 1.53 when odds came in. Going to hedge some of it on Matchbook to give myself a better price overall and lower my risk.

Don't see anything else on this card I like. Might play Akmedov by KO if I can get odds of around 5.0.

My bets look so weird for this card

Glover @ +265
Oezdemir @ +335
Saunders @ -115
Akhmedov @ +215
Hermansson @ -138
Stasiak @ +500
Smith @ +205
Velickovic @ +130
Jessin Ayari @ +280
Hadzovic @ +275

All for a unit.

Again the lines drop very late on Pinnacle.

I've ended up with 5u Gustafsson -175 then 3u Musoke -137 and 2u Saunders -115, 1.2u Ayari +280 and 2u Akhmedov +220

KSW 39 Risk $265.00

Borys Mankowski (+210) vs Mamed Khalidov $50.00 for $105.00
Marcin Rozalski (+290) vs Fernando Rodrigues Jr. $50.00 for $145.00
Mateusz Gamrot (-165) vs Norman Parke $165.00 for $100.00