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Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I love Holloway and dislike Aldo so I really want Holloway to win and Holloway's young and improving but I don't think he's good enough to beat Aldo yet - I can see it being a close competitive fight, but if I bet on it i'll be taking the Aldo -129 the way he outclassed Edgar and Mendes (with Mendes possibly roided) twice just leads me to believe you need to be bigger than him and more powerful to win and while Holloway is bigger than Aldo, i'm not sure he has the power to put Aldo down and keep him down and decisioning Aldo is going to be tough for anyone. It'll be a great fight though. If Holloway can outstrike Aldo and stuff his takedowns if Aldo resorts to wrestling then he can definitely win, it's just a question of how fast and precise are his hands compared to Aldo and how good his TDD is. Aldo hasn't had to wrestle against anyone in the UFC really (or didnt have a chance to against Conor) so who knows.
I'm probably going to just not bet it and cheer for Holloway but if I do bet it'll be Aldo most likely.
At this point I don't think Aldo loses at 145 unless he fights Conor again and Conor will never fight at 145 again so I expect Aldo to hold the belt until he gets too old/too battle worn which may still be a couple years away
I can't see Rory losing to Daly either unless he lands a big punch to re-break his nose early in the first then anything is possible. I expect Rory will just take him down and GnP or submit him pretty easily.
I don't know if I necessarily agree with your analysis re: Holloway vs Aldo.
In my opinion, Aldo is a nightmare matchup for the wrestler who doesn't have reach on him, since he has brutal leg kicks, great take down defense, and great BJJ. Edgar, Mendes, and Urijah all fit this profile.
But Holloway is a long and tall striker who has very dynamic footwork and is great at fighting at range. If you were to compare him to the opponents that Jose's fought in the past, the closest matchup would be McGregor, and we all know how that ended.
IMO, I think this fight depends on how effectively Holloway can counter punch. If you watch Jose Aldo's fights against taller fighters, what he does is he charges in with punches to close the distance. Florian's response to this was to try to take him down, whereas McGregor sniped him with a straight left and scored the KO. If Holloway can tag him accurately when he's coming in, then I could see Holloway having a very good night against him.
But I'm just a casual MMA bettor, so take my analysis for what's it's worth (probably not very much.)