Mousasi scrambled out of full mount and after that weidmann looked so gassed, right before the knees he also almost just stumbled to the ground, he could barely stand up, he clearly had very little left in the tank. I think all the weidmann betters are a bit delusional here. After rewatching I noticed that even in round 1 Mousasi was the one doing the most damage.

While Weidman didn't seem to be clearly wanting to continue, and would be happy with the win going into his column after the DQ, we should give him the benefit of the doubt. It's only 1 more round and we've seen him get back after being rocked / tired (look at the Machida fight, he lost r4 and looked tired, but came back in r5 and won). The ref decision was clearly wrong, a simple question would have sufficed, we're not going to stop the fight, do you want to continue?

In a perfect world this def. would make the most sense. What I think occurred though was Weidman went "all-in" by saying something irrevocable to the doc while he was thinking it would be a DQ win or a NC... such as I can't see straight, I have a headache etc.

The TD's by Weidman in Rd1 were near gimme's as Mousasi didn't even try to defend or Weidman just had too much strength. But even by the end of Rd1 the TD's were getting tougher and tougher. By Rd2 he failed over and over again except the last one where he got mount position... but Gerard flipped right out of it. The TD before the last one Mousasi was blasting him with elbows while Weidman didn't throw a thing and just lay n prayed.

This fight would not have gone the distance 4 out of 5 times and that's been generous to Weidman.

He's a juicer who even resorted to "going to a friends funeral" to get out of a spot drug test. Without juice he can't win against the elite.

Come on, those takedowns were technique 100%, high crotch usually are (okey, now I'm talking without experience, but I reckon a double leg is a lot more energy consuming than a high crotch). He did the similar to Vitor, where the takedown seemed so effortless, but that's because Weidmans a legit wrestler.
I also doubt that Mousasis gameplan was to give up takedowns that easily, I mean the last takedown that Weidman failed on, do you think it was because Mousasi suddenly decided to defend them or rather the fact that Weidman fatigued and couldn't execute them as flawlessly as he did in r1?
Your technique suffers immensely as you fatigue. I do think Mousasi was on his way for a unam / split decision win. or possibly tko, but we can't be for sure and we've seen several times a fighter rebound after looking fatigued in a round (see GSP Hendricks, where GSP looked tired as hell in r4 but gained back some stamina in r5 and basically muscled the fifth round for a victory (pushing Hendricks against the cage and stealing the round).

https://streamable.com/s9evi

Here's the corner audio from the stoppage. Lol Serra "Maybe he just never knows what day it is"

Wooo time for actual model predictions! Current problem I'm bumping into is my code being inefficient. There is at least the potential for running it 4x as fast, and 10x doesn't sound unreasonable at all. At this point this is a priority because currently it would take me like 3 hours to re-run my estimates if I were to change some important factor. This makes it cumbersome to find optimal values in a dynamic system, where in some cases the only solution is to run it for a bunch of different values.

What I have added is:
Wilson Reis @ +559. My model generally doesn't rate Johnson as far above his division as we often do as fans.
Michelle Waterson @ +121. I have this capped at -105/+105 with Namajunas as the slight favorite.
Ronaldo Souza @ -220. I have him as a slightly bigger favorite than this, and the line is already moving in that direction.

All I have at the moment is

Souza and Waterson +203 1u

Made a few more plays for the upcoming card this weekend

I locked in 3u Waterson last week at +126 because I think the fight's a flip - Rose has better athleticism and is bigger and stronger, Waterson has better technique and hasn't shown the same tendency to fade when things aren't going her way that Rose has. I'd have happily taken either fighter at +120 or better in this one it's the very definition of a pickem fight to me.

Today I added

2u Ashlee Evans Smith -163

She's huge for the weight class, was beating Racquel Pennington prior to getting caught in a sub, beat a fighter with a male bone structure in Fallon Fox pre-UFC, muscled an undersized Macedo around like it was nothing and has a win over Marion Reneau which is decent as well. She's not the most skilled or technical, but she's big and powerful and in WMMA where only the elite are actually fairly skilled, that matters a bunch. The only reason i'm not going bigger is I know nothing about her opponent beyond she went to a split decision with Kelly Fasholz in a fight I can't remember and Fasholz has a pretty unimpressive record. Unbeaten at 7-0, but a split over the only UFC level fighter. I've been high on AES since her debut in the UFC and I think i've bet her in every fight so far.

2u Sterling -225

A lot of people seem to be high on Mendes, but getting narrowly outgrappled by Bryan Caraway isn't shameful or anything and Sterling is still the better prospect. I've faded him a few times, Caraway is the only guy who beat him and while that was the most recent fight he should win here. Saenz is a good win but it was a close fight and Sterling is much more proven - obviously no shame in getting KO'd by Cody for Mendes, but I think Sterling is a step up from Saenz overall and will be a tought fight for him - Sterling's had a decent layoff since Caraway and has probably taken time to improve holes in his game as he's still young.

2u Stephens -188

Promising start to his UFC tenure for Moicano, Tukhugov and Niinimaki are solid wins, but they're mid level in the UFC and Stephens is a legit top 15 fighter who is big and hits hard, has good TDD and decent striking technique plus legit KO power. I mean he had competitive fights with Frankie Edgar at FW and Anthony Pettis at LW and has some legit wins over guys like Barao, Bermudez, Elkins and Rony Jason before he dropped off at FW. Unless Moicano is a top 10 figher he's not going to win basically and he hasn't proven that he is on that level yet.

I'm going to add a bet on Whittaker once he gets above +200 which i'm confident he will, i'd be surprised if I don't get +210 or +220 by fight time - Jacare is overall a better fighter, but Whittaker has the slightly better standup and excellent TDD so he actually matches up very well with Jacare - the only time he's been beaten in the UFC (I think he won the McGee fight) was against Wonderboy and despite his ****ty performance against Woodley, Wonderboy is still a far better striker than Jacare and Whittaker is no longer making the tough cut to 170 which in general helps his chin despite facing more power at 185.

If Jacare gets him down then it's over, but if he doesn't I think Whittaker is a small favourite on the feet and i'm not convinced Jacare can take him down at will at all. Will play this one on fight day as I expect Jacare to be bet in more due to the 'Jacare and Romero are unstoppable monsters' hype trains that seem to be going on in MMA circles right now. Yes, both are legit top fighters at MW but neither of them are anywhere close to unbeatable.

Also considering Smolka at +2xx vs Elliott, but will wait for weigh ins he looked awful last time, if he looks good i'll fade the steam. Elliott looked great against MM and good against Benavidez prior to being tapped, but Smolka is a finisher and if he's back to his best I see this as a close fight - depends on Smolka's shape and motivation though so i'll wait.

I might look at the Mighty Mouse by TKO or Decision line vs Reis if it's reasonable, Reis has legit BJJ from memory and shouldn't get subbed, but has been KO'd a few times so if MM finishes that's likely to be how, and obviously a decision is in play too. Have to wait and see what the odds look like though once props are out.

Volkov by decision is tempting too just due to Roy Nelson's decline - I happen to think Volkov is overrated, but i've been burnt too many times betting on Roy and unless he's facing a Bigfoot level chin he just can't win decisions anymore because he's too hittable, slow and low volume. Maybe Volkov by decision and Nelson by KO, but leaning the former over the latter.

Nothing else really appeals to me out of the rest of the fights - gl all!

Not sure why the rest of the lines aren't up on Pinnacle yet. Decided to not wait and fire on bet365 instead.

I ended up with:
Wilson Reis @ +559
Michelle Waterson @ +121
Ronaldo Souza @ -220
Alexander Volkov @ -138
Louis Smolka @ +225
Anthony Smith +240
Augusto Mendes @ +187
Nathan Coy @ +300

The fact that I am picking a lot of underdogs indicates to me that my model currently "believes" fights are generally closer than the bookies/market believe. This is pretty much expected for where I'm at right now.

EDIT: Literally five minutes later the lines open at Pinnacle ROFL

Added a third unit on aes and Stephens and 2u on Volkov as I just can't bring myself to bet on Nelson landing the ko vs anyone not named bigfoot.

Still waiting for Whittaker fight day and smolka if good at weigh ins

Decided to add a a 4th unit to Evans-Smith at -163, after thinking about it a bit more plus seeing some steam and price is still available it's narrowly my fav bet of card the card now over Stephens then I think Waterson third. If Whittaker gets out to the +220 or so I expect he will I really like that too

Also did a 0.1u parlay on my 7 picks for the card to win 12u and change

good job, guys

Thanks for the info. Have already bet on some fights

Nice. Thanks for sharing. Gl.

Added a single unit on Smolka yesterday at +225, surprised Whittaker is in to +180 now I passed on +202 yesterday thinking it'd move further. Going to leave it unless it gets back to something like +187ish. Shame I missed the Whittaker dec line at the +925 it opened at that seems insane given if he wins it should be by stand and trade/stuff takedowns about half the time (and via KO the rest of the time)

Good to see Evans Smith and Sterling moving in, kinda surprised it's moved, against Stephens a bit, going to cash my 3u out for a 0.3u loss re-bet it now that the price has improved as that's slightly better than keeping it. Re bet it at -175 so i'm risking 0.1u less now due to the weird b365 glitchy calculations on cashouts when a line's moved against you.

I guess i'll wait and see on Whittaker. If anyone wants Jacare @ the Pinyn vigfree line for a couple hundred let me know and we can save the juice currently Jacare -205 Whittaker +180, so current vigfree line would be +/- 192.5

Please guys don't follow my bets I don't think I'm winning yet loll

If you decide you want a little more on Jacare let me know as I want the other side and happy to take a novig line with you there

I'm on the same side as you on 3 fights and opposite on 2

Also if you have a heap of confidence in your model a way better price is available on Mendes you should see if you can cash the bet out and re bet it @ new line profitably, b365 often **** up their early cashout lines and let you off for a way smaller loss relative to how far it's moved against you Mendes is +3xx now so it's probably ok to cash it out and re bet unless theyre offering an awful price

Think I'm good. I'm aware that a lot of analysts are picking against me, and the line is moving against me too. My confidence isn't that high, but there's no point having a model if you are gonna get cold feet whenver you go against the grain, so I bet it. But I'll leave it at what I have.

I've been thinking a bit lately about what a good model will look like vs a good analyst. My suspicion is a good model will find more bettable fights, but at a lower ROI.

I'll check it out and do the math. I'm not sure how I'm supposed to deal with a price movement like this in my current framework. Right now my goal is to beat opening lines. As such I'm not using any information like rumors that surface about weight cuts etc (after lines are released). When something steams this hard against me I'm worried that something is going on that isn't a part of my framework at all, and so judging if I should be rebetting or simply cashing out is difficult.

Added 1.8u Whittaker +180 and I think i'm done now. I really expected that to move the other way

Bellator 177 Risk $782.25

Eduardo Dantas (-220) vs Leandro Higo $220.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas/Leandro Higo starts round 4 (-112) ~$54.00 for ~$48.21

Daniel Weichel (-155) vs John Teixeira $116.25 for $75.00
Daniel Weichel/John Teixeira starts round 3 (-169) ~102.00 for ~$60.36

Anthony Taylor/Adam Borics starts round 2 (-154) ~$102.00 for ~$66.23

Lena Ovchynnikova (-140) vs Helen Harper $56.00 for $40.00
Lena Ovchynnikova/Helen Harper starts round 3 (-112) ~$132.00 for ~$117.86

Placed a bet for Bellator (thanks for reminding me about that Jim):

John Teixeira @ +140

vigfree line is not just splitting the difference, in this case its ±188.2

this site has a calculator and explains the math behind it:
http://sportsbettingsites.org/bettin...ig-calculator/

Ya cool I was using a split the difference estimate, appreciate the link

Looks like a bit of Jacare steam's happening after all, if it moves much more I guess i'll cash out my Whittaker bet on b365 to fire it on Pinny

Nothing stands out as bet-changing at the weigh ins, Stephens and Sterling both look even better than expected imo, Reis looks good but not betting the main anyway, both flyweights look like they want to die, everything else is pretty much as expected, although I only saw the pictures rather than watching the video, will get around to that if anyone thinks there's anything worth looking at there

I'm on 5 dimes but I been reduced to crap limits any other books that have good mma lines + props? I'm in the god damn USA