Mos def. This is not going to be a walk in the park for Khabib by any stretch of the imagination. Tony is the far more accomplished striker, with Khabib only excelling in GnP and cage control, with the occasional power punch. I think Khabib is probably somewhere around -150-180 favorite in this one, and that is simply due to the fact of his takedown strength and Fergusons average TDD along with him once taken down, hasn't shown that he's that great of getting back up.

With all that said, I would not be surprised to witness Ferguson steamrolling Khabib in the striking department and likewise Khabib ragdolling Ferguson around with his wrestling.

Lol its not like khabib hasn't faced good strikers before, He ragdolled Johnson who beat Ferguson, and he ragdolled RDA who had a very competitive fight with Ferguson. It's not like Ferguson is on a whole other level than the guys he has faced before.

MMA math is applicable in few situations, and this is certainly not one of them. Especially when the johnson fight occurred 5 years ago... Consider also that Ferguson has only been submitted once in his career, and that occurred in 2009. Then look at Johnson, who has been submitted multiple times. One can easily draw the conclusion that Ferguson is more durable than Johnson and thus will pose a bigger threat to Khabib. We also know that Ferguson is able to go 5 full rounds with a high tempo, same cannot be said for Khabib (no doubt he can, just that we don't know so it becomes a x-factor).

I was not saying anything about all the points you are making here? I was only saying that it is really absurd to suggest Ferguson will steamroll Khabib standing since no fighter ever managed to achieve that for even a single round!! against Khabib.

I think Khabib/Ferguson is going to be surprisingly noncompetitive regardless of who wins (and I think Khabib is far more likely to be the one as Chael says to be swinging the hammer)

Ferguson yes is more of a threat on the ground than any of Khabib's previous opponents, but he's also incapable of getting back to his feet against a grappler with Khabib's top control. One Khabib gets a takedown, that round is basically over, and Ferguson's submissions mostly come from darce chokes, usually after he has hurt his opponent standing - it's not like he's a master of getting sweeps from the bottom or landing takedowns himself unless his opponent is rocked.

If Ferguson wins it's going to be because he hurts Khabib with strikes, probably within the first minute of the fight. I just don't think he does that anywhere near often enough. The perfect fighter to beat Khabib is someone like a version of Tibau with better striking, or a Dominick Cruz/TJ Dillashaw/Cody Garbrandt type at LW with great TDD and evasiveness plus good movement and standup. Michael Johnson is close with his striking style, but his TDD isn't up to scratch so he's not the guy as we saw. Tibau had the TDD, but his striking is only mid tier, and we saw that with how the fight played out.

Someone like a slightly larger Frankie Edgar in his prime would probably be the right fighter at LW to beat Khabib (likely via stick and move decision standing and good enough defensive wrestling and movement to stuff takedowns). Ferguson has more of the Anderson Silva skillset (great but not as good striking, and great submission offense and defense but not the best ability to land takedowns or get sweeps unless opponent is rocked) and the problem is Khabib has the perfect skillset to beat that (Prime Chael Sonnen level takedowns, but with excellent submission offense and defense from top position which Chael lacked)

Nate Diaz is another 'elite' fighter who matches up horribly with Khabib for the same reason, the fight would be a more one sided version of the Bendo fight. Guys like prime LW Edgar or Melendez would have the best chance against Khabib, but Edgar is too small/moved weight classes/getting old and Melendez is past his prime. The 'correct' type of fighter you'd design to beat Khabib doesn't exist in the top 10 at LW right now, Eddie Alvarez might be the best bet but honestly his striking isn't even leagues above Khabib's, it's better yes but i'm not certain it'd be enough. The guy with the best chance against Khabib is actually Conor of the current top 10 LWs imo, because Conor's striking is leagues above anyone else's at LW and he has one punch KO power which most LWs lack and if you hurt Khabib you NEED to finish him before he gets ahold of you. Conor's biggest weakness is TDD (good but not elite) and more importantly submission defense in that if Khabib gets him down he probably submits him 30+% of the time in any given round with a few minutes left, so after two rounds of top control or so he'd be a favourite to find the submission.

Interestingly enough Jose Aldo actually matches up very well with Khabib in my opinion and I say this as an Aldo hater. He has amazing TDD, he's very strong (although would be on the smaller end at LW) and his striking is clearly better than Khabib's by a wide enough margin. If I had to stake my life on any fighter at 155 to beat Khabib I would strongly consider Aldo if he was given enough time to bulk up for 155. If he can make 155, GSP would match up perfectly against Khabib's style and would be a big favourite too, but until I see him make 155 I can't consider him I guess. Maia is too big I think to ever make 155. Tyron Woodley is also too big, but they'd both match up well too for different/obvious reasons.

I ended up getting 2.5u of my Khabib bet matched at an average of -180ish at matchbook, so I have 2.5u on Khabib now to go with my Reem decision play with hedges and my Wonderboy play. Hoping that the rest of the lines get released soonish.

I did not suggest it happening, but rather that I would not be surprised to see him wobble and then finish Khabib. It would not be out of the ordinary, as we have seen Khabib has reckless standup fighting at times and Johnson wobbled him quite easily in the standup department, before getting taken down and smashed, as Khabib likes to say.

If Ferguson wins that'll almost certainly be how it happens, rocking Khabib with a shot and then either locking in a darce or finishing with additional strikes while Khabib is rocked. I really don't see any other way that the fight is won by Ferguson. Khabib is going to basically use his average-ish striking to set up a bumrush type shot asap where he just grabs on to him, backs him into the cage and takes him down and rinse repeat until Ferguson has either finished him (less likely) or Khabib successfully completes the takedown (more likely) at which point Khabib will hold top position (he's better at this than pretty much anyone) and start working GnP or working for a submission (I could see an arm triangle being fairly likely) at which point this continues until either the round ends and Khabib probably wins the round or until he finds a finish.

I only just remembered this is a 5 round fight since it's for the interim LW belt, i'm almost certainly going to place a bet on Khabib by submission once the lines are out having remembered that (was leaning Khabib dec in a 3 rounder, although sub is also very possible).

I may also bet fight doesn't go the distance if it's at close to evens as I think Khabib finishes slightly over half the time when he wins but with Ferguson it's more like 85-90% or something in a 5 rounder. Fight doesn't go to decision at the evens to +110 range seems pretty good, you're basically getting the third of the time or so that Ferguson wins, and about half of the time when Khabib wins. +5xx to +6xx range for Khabib sub is great imo, going to wait and see what price I can get on Khabib wins by sub, sub or decision and Khabib -5.5 pts to decide where I add a few units. Going to wait for a few more books to open Khabib sub lines.

Khabib -5.5 points will be a steal if it's at close to evens as if Ferguson wins the first two rounds he'll almost certainly finish, and if he loses them he's going to be beaten up so badly he's going to also lose the rest of the rounds if not finished.

I also really like Ferguson wins in r1 at +900 on b365, I just put a unit there as my Ferguson wins hedge as if he wins it'll be in r1 over half the time imo. I'll be pretty happy risking 10 units or so on Khabib in various bets now so if Ferg wins in r1 I break even (likely split between Khabib straight up, sub, sub or dec and -5.5 pts lines) and i'm only risking 4 and change so far on my straight up Khabib bet.

For anyone who thinks Ferguson wins I think the r1 prop at +900 is WAY better value than the +170ish straight up, does he really win in r1 less than a quarter of the time if he wins the fight? Of course not, i'll be a mixture of r1 and r2 finishes with more in r1, and a very very rare decision. The r2 prop is +1400 as well, if I go all out on Khabib I may add a small hedge there too. After two rounds, if Ferguson hasn't finished Khabib he isn't going to win.

I have a feeling i'm going to have something like 25+ units in play just on the 3 top fights of this card alone, I expect to have something like 12u between my Khabib plays and Ferguson hedges on that fight, likely 5-6u or so on Wonderboy of which I already have 3u on him and the 3u I have on Reem dec plus the reem r3 and hunt r1 hedges on that fight. Wouldn't be shocked if I wind up with a bunch on Vannata/ITD/TKO/POTN

Elkins is 2.56 on whatever Ohmbet is, even though Bektic is an excellent prospect i'm never passing on Elkins if he's +175 or something once all of the books release lines as I think that fight is close to a pickem (although i'd probably take Bektic at evens) with Bektic having fought once against a semi-can in two years. Will wait for books to release lines and see I guess. They both have mutual wins over two opponents, those being Bektic's two best wins arguably, although Elkins also has losses to the elite of the division and we have no idea what Bektic's ceiling is.

If Lando ITD is at plus anything I think i'll fire there too, he looks to be in the -200 range at whatever that book is that has early lines but it also has high vig, so I might just fire straight up if it's -170 or something once all the books open a line.

I'm also super curious to see where Evans/Kelly opens, it could be anything from Rashad -200 to -800 imo, if I had to guess maybe it opens Rashad -450 Kelly +350? Idk, i'll probably fire Rashad at -250 or better or Kelly at +500 or better and otherwise leave it alone.

Why does Ferguson not win in round 3,4,5?

Khabib hasn't lost a single round in a fight where he has taken his opponent down at any stage after round 2 (or at all i'm pretty sure the only round/s he has lost were against Tibau on steroids)

Ferguson regularly loses rounds, to RDA, Trujillo, Castillo, Barboza, Vannata

Come to think of it he's actually lost a LOT of round 1s in the UFC (I count four on his current win streak and two round three losses). This bodes VERY poorly for him as that's his best chance to win against Khabib, or the very start of r2. I'll probably add a small Ferguson wins in r2 hedge as well, then smash the Khabib line hard as I feel like if it's reached the third round and Khabib hasn't been knocked down and/or finished, he's almost certainly dominating the fight and getting takedowns as much as he wants as I doubt he can last until the third if he finds literally zero success in the standup.

Adding a half unit hedge on Ferguson r2 +1400 and three more units on Khabib -186 so I have -183 average now for 6u on Khabib with 1.5u in hedges on Ferguson r1/2

Will put another 3-4u on some combination of Khabib -5.5 pts and Khabib wins via SUB when the -5.5 line is released and a few more books have released the sub prop.

One nice thing with my hedges is that if Khabib lands a takedown in either round and secures a comfortable top position I can probably live cash the Ferguson wins in that round bet out, last card b365 allowed mid round cashouts and the prices were way better than they should have been

Got a 4th unit matched on Wonderboy at -120 on Matchbook as well and put up an offer for a couple more, pretty happy to lock in that price, i'm on a pretty big heater in other sports this month and really love this card for betting so happy to go a bit bigger than usual, I think i'll be happy with 6-7u on Wonderboy around that price and have 4u at about -122 average so far.

All three judges had that one 30-27 Khabib and I thought those scores were correct.

Only person on planet Earth giving Tibau rounds that night was Rogan.

I'm pretty sure Khabib has never lost a round.. period.

What about overeem vs hunt? Overeem is a much better fighter I think with a big arsenal of strikes and I think he could keep Hunt away from him or close the distance against the cage, he is also alot younger and Hunt looked terrible against Lesnar. Overeem's chin is gone though, but he did defeat Nelson quite easily who imo most resembles Hunt's style of all the HW fighters. I like the price on Overeem now at 1.8

For tomorrow's Bellator 173 I got:

"Da Kid" Lohore (-190 @ 5D) 1.9u to win 1u

He is fighting gatekeeper "Freakshow" Fletcher. Freakshow is extremely durable (the o1.5 is at -180 there might be value too) and has good Muay Thai but lacks real power in his kicks and has almost no head movement. His TDD is also sub par. Don't be fooled by his 9 subs, they were very early in his career vs guys like "Machete" Montes with 12-18 records.

Da Kid is accurate and has very good grappling. He should win late in the 2nd by RNC.

I wanna go heavier but have been in a roll lately and going on a nice vacation to South Beach for spring break with my winnings sounds like the best idea right meow

Overeem v Hunt. I don't see Overeem finishing Hunt. Likely I don't see Hunt finishing Reem but I think it is more likely. Reem by points looks pretty good imo. Perhaps with a hedge on Hunt by KO.

The over 1.5 r looks tempting at 2.1, I think this fight goes over 1.5 over 50% of the time. Hunt not finishing fights any more. Reem very careful and deliberate, could easily be a very boring fight were both do not attack or fight very slowly.

Anybody got some analysis for Woodley v Wonderboy? Who wins?Which round? Over under 3.5 r? Etc etc.

If I have to pick a most likely outcome i'm taking Wonderboy by lopsided decision. Either guy could win in pretty much any fashion (except I doubt Wonderboy attempts any submissions) but I think Wonderboy was off his game in the first fight and that was the best we'll see from Woodley and that he'll make the necessary adjustments and win easily - we've already seen he can take Woodley's best shot and that he will win any round that is contested exclusively on the feet where he doesn't get badly rocked with a power shot, which in my opinion is most rounds these guys will contest - if Woodley is looking to shoot I expect Wonderboy will stop throwing kicks and look to back him into the cage and win rounds with range striking. If he gameplans well he should win, although I have no idea specifically how it'll play out. Most likely it looks like Rory vs Woodley and Wonderboy vs Rory did with Wonderboy backing Woodley in to the fence pressuring him with conservative volume strikes and not overextending from range and winning rounds, or if he hurts Woodley badly with a punch he may load up a spinning kick and get the highlight reel finish if Woodley's back is to the cage and he's hurt. The only way Woodley wins is either taking Wonderboy down at will which I don't think he can do (he may get one takedown if Wonderboy is throwing kicks, but if he is that increases Wonderboy's chances of winning by TKO and Wonderboy will probably stop throwing kicks if he can get back up/survive to the next round) or by landing a kill shot and as we saw in r4 of the last fight Wonderboy is tough although obviously it is possible for Woodley to finish Wonderboy, I think he only gets him in a badly hurt position 1 in 2.5-3 fights and when he does only finds the finish about half the time from there so 1 in 5-6 or so fights he'll catch Wonderboy and finish him but that's nowhere near enough given I don't like Woodley's path to a decision at all and don't believe he will win enough rounds through wrestling as some others may.

I think Wonderboy's a solid -150 favourite in this one, Woodley is better than I gave him credit for before their first fight, but I don't think he's good enough to beat Wonderboy more than 4 in 10 times, and honestly if they fought 10 more times and I had to pick an exact number both fighters would win i'd probably go 7-3 Wonderboy and if not then 6-4. The reason i'm saying -150 is mostly in case i'm wrong about the adjustments both fighters will make, if my assumptions are right about how good both fighters are and the stylistic matchup, I think the first fight was in the top 25-33% or so for how fights will go between these two for Woodley and it was a draw where he lost 3 rounds. If i'm right about how the fight is likely to play out then Wonderboy is more like -200. Assuming arbing not allowed etc, I probably wouldn't play Woodley until something like +210 and i'd take Wonderboy until -140ish

Regarding Reem vs Hunt I see it pretty similar to SuperMario and already have 3u on Reem decision at +300 which I think is a great price given I think Reem should have the more diverse striking and should fight conservatively due to the chin factor, plus Hunt is tough and has better submission defense than he used to (although Reem could tap him) if Reem decides to wrestle and hold him down for a UD. I like my Reem r3 and Hunt r1 hedges, Reem could blitz Hunt early but he'd have to fight aggressively and if Hunt wins it'll most likely be via flattening Overeem with a clean punch in the first for a walk off knockout.

The fan in me wants Hunt to win (not a huge fan of either guy, but I dislike Overeem due to his blatant steroid use) but logically I think Econo-reem should win by decision or late accumulation of damage TKO a reasonably high amount of the time if he fights conservatively and picks Hunt apart from range using good technique and takes the takedown if it's there to hold top position etc, I wouldn't be surprised if Reem wins a wrestling based 30-27 as the crowd boos the hell out of him for not standing and trading with Hunt, especially if Hunt lands a shot on him early that hurts but doesn't finish him and he manages to compose himself.

In Wonderboy/Woodley i'd lean the o3.5 if I had to take a side, but don't love either side of the fight to go the distance or not really and i'd much rather just play Wonderboy straight up than any of the over/unders.

Will be interesting to see how Khabib vs Ferguson goes, i'd say on average Ferguson lands one or two reasonable punches standing but doesn't drop Khabib (or potentially doesn't even land any significant shots if Khabib just bullrushes him, but I think he'll stand for the first minute or so to set up the shot), then Khabib drags him down, holds him down with GnP for the rest of the round and then takes him down at will from rounds 2-5 or until he locks in a submission, most likely an arm triangle from top position if he can pass Ferguson's guard.

If Ferguson wins I expect it to be he drops or stuns Khabib on the feet in round 1 or possibly r2 and locks in a darce, but that's much less likely than the scenario above imo

If anyone wants Ferguson wins in r3-5 or by decision i'm happy to give you +300 as I just don't see that happening often enough.

Forgot Bellator was on tonight.
I used to train with the late step in for the main event Brett Mcdermott.
He retired a few weeks ago so pretty crazy that he his jumping in on short notice.

Big power puncher but I imagine Mcgeary tries to get it to the ground pretty quickly.

Best example is his fight against Oli Thompson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bhumq3smcEE

I also think James Gallagher is overrated due to his affiliation with SBG and Conor Mcgregor. Don't know anything about his opponent though but looks to have fought the better competition. Will watch some video but if he is at least competent should be value at 7.0.

Swoop, you still did not explain why Ferguson does not win in R3,4,5? Are you thinking that once Khabib rag dolls him for 2 rounds that he won't have the power to rock/ hit Khabib and finish him later on?

It's possible he survives a few rounds of gnp but rocks him later on, or not?

Ferguson definitely has a chance to finish it late. He has terminator level cardio and an incredible pace. He usually wins by attrition so gets stronger as the fight goes on. Really the only question is how he handles the takedowns of Khabib. Ferguson is a high level wrestler in his own right even tho he doesnt show it much, but no one has been able to stop Khabib's takedowns regardless of their grappling credentials. Its an easy win for Ferguson if he can deal with the takedowns, if not its an easy win for Khabib. I don't see much middle ground, its easy in both directions depending on the takedowns.

MMA & kickboxing action today.

Bellator 173 Risk $355.25

Liam McGeary/Brett McDermott Under 1½ (-215) $86.00 for $40.00
Kirill Medvedovski (+600) vs James Gallagher $40.00 for $240.00
Sinead Kavanagh/Iony Razafiarison Under 2½ (+100) $50.00 for $50.00
Alex Lohore (-164) vs Colin Fletcher ~$179.25 for ~$109.30

Glory 38 Risk $134.85

Ariel Machado (+175) vs Danyo Ilunga $50.00 for $87.50
Murthel Groenhart (+123) vs Thongchai Sitsongpeenong ~$84.85 for ~$104.36

I just checked and saw some crazy line movement. No idea why it shot up and I missed the peak at +350, but had to bite at +200, no matter what the rumor is.

LFA 5 Risk $100.00

Adam Townsend (+200) vs Marcus Edwards $100.00 for $200.00

If he can't stop the takedowns in the first 2 rounds he will be tired despite his excellent cardio and his single punch power will decrease, plus we will know by then that Khabib can take him down at will probably, so Khabib will likely take him down within the first minute of rounds 3-5 if the fight reaches that stage and Khabib has been on top (if Ferguson's winning then I think he has finished the fight by the end of round 2 the vast majority of the time).

Had a few more bets matched on matchbook, this is roughly what I have at the moment

4.5u Wonderboy -122 average (got another 2u on offer at MTC at -120 that hopefully gets matched)

8.3u Khabib -184 average
1u Ferguson wins in r1 +900
0.5u Ferguson wins in r2 +1400 (might make this a full unit hedge, leaning that way but haven't decided for sure)

3u Overeem wins by decision +300
0.5u Overeem wins in r3 +1800
0.5u Hunt wins in r1 +300 (might make this a full unit hedge too, or even add enough to profit on this result if Hunt looks to be in good shape at weigh ins)

Hoping that the Elkins line is good once more books release it, it's looking like I might get +180 or something and while I do lean Bektic in the fight, never bet against Darren Elkins as a decent underdog is a reasonably good rule, it always amazed me how a guy who thought it was a good idea to get the tattoo he got has excellent fight IQ. Also hoping the Vannata line is good.

Not watching todays card due to watching a Rugby Union game I have a bet on, glgl Jim and anyone else with bets

Twitter informs me Townsend got the job done, nice work. Might check out some of the fights later if there are any that are must watch

Amazing with the crazy line movement that Townsend got as high as +350 at one point. I haven't watched it yet, but I was happy to hear my hundred dollar bet hit at +200.

I chickened out @ +165

Good stuff man !!! Lohore got us there too !!! Good weekend indeed.

I just realised my Reem Dec bet is +400 not +300. Given I think it's slightly +EV at +300 no wonder I loved it so much and went big when I hit it early. It's still +400 on b365 if anyone else wants it. Seems like a pretty awesome price if the fight goes the distance Reem will win a huge percentage of the time and if he fights conservatively coming off a knockout against a slow moving but hard hitting Hunt i'd actually go as far as to say it's probably the most likely outcome (either guy by KO/TKO is also reasonably likely obv, Hunt is most likely to finish it early, then the longer the fight goes the more likely Reem is to wear him down and find a finish without overextending)

Also added another 1.5u on Wonderboy at -124, think i'm done now. Wonderboy -123, Khabib -184 and Reem Dec +400 as my main plays for the card. I'm very confident in all 3 at the price I got, can't wait for this card.

Should get prelim lines over the next couple days too, Matchbook told me the full card is going up by Tuesday at the latest so I assume Pinny/5d should be up soon too and the rest will follow