Swoop, what's the point of Tweeting bookmakers about line movement? You don't think they are going to cancel your earlier bets because the line moved against you, do you? As far as I heard, Bang supposedly gave an interview in Korean media yesterday that he was going into the fight with an injury. I bet Bang at like +120 earlier this afternoon because Leo Kuntz is just not UFC level in my opinion. And then Bang's line shot up to +420 this evening in rapid speed.

My take on this: I don't know if I'm being clever or a sucker, but I just put another $200 on Bang at +420. Makes sense to me that if there is something shady going on with a thrown fight or the like that the crooked money will be coming in on the underdog at big odds and I want to be on the side that cleans up.

Betcris live support (cut and pasted the 3 relevant statements)

Support guy: You are right about the rumors... There has been a lot of talking about the fight being fixed... We do not have any reason to believe that, but other people get influenced by rumors... Due to all the people basically freaking out, we are just moving the lines as the market moves...

If any officials from the UFC or other sporting authority renders the fight not valid due to a fix up, we will probably cancel all action on the event...

Even if the event is final and graded, but the fight is rendered unofficial, we will cancel all action on the event...

So yeah, Betcris have heard rumours, but nothing official and they're keeping the line up for now, and will cancel in the event any info about a fix is made public but otherwise the bets will stand

My Bang bet is actually on Betcris so just figured id ask their live support about it

Didn't think so no (although they did cancel multiple fixed esports matches prior to match during recent scandal - see my posts in esports thread or on TL) but wanted to clarify the circumstances in which they'd cancel the fight as I have to calculate that when deciding who to bet on

I only have a small partial unit bet on Bang right now at a bad price but could switch sides if there seems to be any merit to rumours before right, or actually hit Bang and hope that if it's fixed we get the push and if not we get Bang at an amazing price because even carrying an injury i'd snap take Bang at the +350 to +400 hes available at if its a fair fight

If I were to believe anything conspiracy related, I might believe that Bang's injury was purposeful disinformation or exaggerated and that money came in on Kuntz as a result with Korean organized crime looking to clean up on Bang. I think even an injured Bang has a good chance to beat Kuntz, so maybe the crooked money came in on Bang at peak of +420 or so like mine did. If the line comes back down tonight with a lot of money coming on on Bang I think this makes the most sense. I guess we'll see soon enough.

ok screw it lines started to come back on Bang, so i'm going to fire another partial unit on Bang +340 on JimGunn's read, and then pretend that fight doesnt exist betting wise for the rest of the day so that I don't get tempted to do something stupid on either side of it based on rumour

1u Bendo -230
0.3u Bang +340
0.1u Bang -127
0.25u Stun Gun DHK fight u2.5 rounds +115
0.25u Other DHK +113 (someone who watched tape on him told me they were impressed so why not)
0.2u Serrano -161

so far

Yeah I mean if its an actual fix or he's badly injured, Bang will close at +500 or something and if its misinformation then Bang might close back at +150 or evens, it's fascinating in any case, and I guess BetCRIS leaving the lines up means they're leaning towards it not being a fix because otherwise they'd be costing themselves money

Pinny are leaving lines up w reduced max of 500 too

Bang could be trying to mislead his opponent/play mind games too by faking an injury although who knows if thats even possible or likely

Masvidal just moved from +225ish to +197 on Pinny, this must be another 'move all of the lines against what swoopae bet on' card or something

Ham and Stungun DHK getting steamed a bit too although DHK has been getting steamed all week since this is supposed to be an easy fight for him in theory. Was going to fire Casey but will prob pass with money coming on Ham

https://twitter.com/FurysFightPicks

Interesting info/rumours in the twitter feed there

Apparently a lot of books taking down the lines

Checked Crownbet and line is down

Apparently the under steamed really hard too

Casey really hasn't proven enough to be the fav has she? Got smashed by calderwood and has no other meaningful wins and wouldn't even be in UFC if the div wasn't thin and got offered the last fight on short notice.
Think O2.5 -225 might be an ok bet, Ham doesn't finish and she should have enough experience to stay out of subs enough to cover the line.

I have absolutely no idea whats going on in the Bang fight

Added 0.25u on Casey after all at -143 apparently she dwarfed Ham at weigh ins although I havent looked at the pics yet

I think Bendo will be my only full unit bet for the card, too much randomness and just have 0.1-0.3u sweat bets on the other fights for most part. Even Masvidal's getting steamed now, Masvidal at his best is probably +150 vs Bendo, Masvidal at his worst is more like +500 whereas Bendo is pretty consistent so I guess whether I have the right side depends which Masvidal shows up - also figured Bendo would be pretty hyped to fight in Korea given his heritage + if its a close decision which is quite possible the crowd may factor into that for Bendo so not too unhappy with my bet even though price is slightly better now

Kinda regretting my Bang bet because its a total lottery, if it's a fair fight and he has no injury or a mild one it's an excellent bet, but the line movement suggests either a more serious injury or some sort of shenanigans especially with the under being hammered in too. I really hope Bang isn't taking a dive because for a lower ranked guy I really enjoy his fights.

A bit tempted by Sicilia +210 as well but havent fired it yet I wonder if Choi is as good as the hype, can't remember his last fight even though I know I saw it

UFN 79 Risk $1947.80

Benson Henderson (-255) vs Jorge Masvidal $510.00 for $200.00
Benson Henderson wins by submission (+597) $20.00 for $119.40
Benson Henderson wins in round 4 (+1875) $10.00 for $187.50
Benson Henderson wins in round 5 (+2675) $10.00 for $267.50

Dong Hyun Kim/Dominic Waters Under 2½ (+117) $50.00 for $58.50
Dong Hyun Kim wins by TKO/KO (+285) vs Dominic Waters $25.00 for $71.25

Alberto Mina (+145) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama $60.00 for $87.00
Alberto Mina wins by 3 round decision (+560) $40.00 for $224.00
Alberto Mina/Yoshihiro Akiyama starts round 2 (-278) $278.00 for $100.00

Sam Sicilia/Doo Ho Choi Under 1½ (+102) $40.00 for $40.80

Jake Collier/Dongi Yang Over 2½ (-132) $52.80 for $40.00
Yui Chul Nam wins in round 1 (+550) vs Mike De La Torre $20.00 for $110.00
Tae Hyun Bang (+125) vs Leo Kuntz $100.00 for $125.00
Tae Hyun Bang (+420) vs Leo Kuntz $200.00 for $840.00
Tae Hyun Bang wins in round 1 (+400) $25.00 for $100.00
Tae Hyun Bang wins inside distance (+182) $50.00 for $91.00
Cortney Casey-Sanchez (-165) vs Seo Hee Ham $165.00 for $100.00
Cortney Casey-Sanchez wins by submission (+587) $20.00 for $117.40
Fredy Serrano (-155) vs Yao Zhikui $62.00 for $40.00
Marco Beltran (+160) vs Ning Guangyou $50.00 for $80.00
Dong Hyun Kim (+115) vs Dominique Steele $40.00 for $46.00
Dong Hyun Kim wins by TKO/KO (+305) vs Dominique Steele $35.00 for $106.75

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+205) $40.00 for $82.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+546) $20.00 for $109.20
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 6½ (+1575) $10.00 for $157.50
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 7½ (+6300) $3.00 for $189.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 8½ (+37400) $2.00 for $748.00

Yoshihiro Akiyama/Alberto Mina FOTN award winner (+450) $10.00 for $45.00

--
Also some Saturday afternoon boxing action:

HBO Championship Boxing Risk $120.00
Wladimir Klitschko/Tyson Fury Under 9½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Wladimir Klitschko wins in round 4-6 (+529) $20.00 for $105.80

i'm out of town and dont have access to my booking options is the line on bang still live anywhere if so any chance you could help out a fellow 2+2'er in return for money back+vig win or lose ? i want to go hard on bang before this shifts again

That's some major hendo love

also i think it's more likely 1-3 or rather late on the kitschko knockout so you might be better spreading there vs rd4-6 where kitschko will likely take it easy before pouring it on

Depends what you mean by big, ill take a look for best line on the books I have money on how much did you want on it and whats the worst price you'd take

Threw down a couple more sweat parlays and should be done for the card now I think; parlayed all 3 way combos of both DHKs, Serrano and Casey, and then the four of them plus Bendo all for 0.1u each for a total of 0.5u risked between the five combinations

I have no idea what to make of the Bang situation and kinda wish I hadn't bet at all but if he's mildly injured and it's a fair fight I still like the +3xx line so whatever. Going to feel dumb if he took a dive though or is badly injured

well big for me this year isn't much right now since the summer really dented my roll i'm thinking $50 and I'm open to discussion on price since I'm fairly confident Bang wins this even with injury

Assuming you're happy to settle on Stars or whatever and cover all vig/fees/etc ill book it for you theporkchop

+340 seems to be best price I have access to atm on 5d (-380/+340 line)

Your 50 is on at +340 gl booked

It cost me just under $2 or so in vig to get the USD onto 5d plus whatever itll cost me to move the money to stars or wherever you need it if it wins (or withdraw if it loses)

yeah sounds good lets hope the kuntz don't haunt us in a couple hours

Yang starting to steam a bit now, made a small sweat at +115, and also added 0.2u to Stungun ITD at +105

bang also steamed a bit about an hour ago i see it down to +200 on a bunch of sites that were at +280 not sure if thats just guys like me fading the drama or not thumbs up on the yang price def not sold on collier

Bang still above +300 on Pinny

I'm assuming it's an injury thing and not a fix thing or theres no way there wouldnt be some pushback as the price comes back in

that was a fight i guess

working atm so cant watch the early prelims but i should be able to watch the main card

looks like i lost just over a half unit with little dhk killing a few of my parlays early plus my bet on him

i'm on the verge of going 0-2 as guangyou is stinking it up

Shame I didn't fire Beltran as I was leaning that way.

Oh well on to Serrano, glme