Yesss what an epic finish. <3 UFC 142.

for sure

this.

but the finish was spectacular enough to make it worth it.

Fun card, made just under 5 units since Silva 'losing' ruined two of my quarter unit parlays and my partial unit plays on Etim and Stout missed (semi-robbed on Stout, but I actually had it 29-28 Tavares myself despite most people scoring it for Stout so whatever). Sigh Mario Yamasaki and good on Rogan for calling him out that's a point deduction offense and 5 minutes to recover at worst, and he was already basically TKO'd before the illegal shot anyway (and only one of those punches was illegal imo)

As soon as Belfort got up from the first takedown I figured easy from here, Johnson's standup isn't so impressive when he doesn't have a 35lb weight advantage

Overall most enjoyable card since 139 probably, was very happy with it.

Looking forward to the Fox 2 card (and also the FX card to a lesser extent)

Got just over 2 units on Sonnen and 2 on Rashad so far, might bet Bisping depending on odds.

like 4 illegal punches.

I disagree with the DQ, but Rogan was a ****ing moron. Several obviously illegal shots and he just ignores them when watching the replay.

"thats legal, thats legal, (illegal punch) *silence*, (illegal punch) *silence*), thats legal" etc.

discuss melvin vs jim miller

Had Tavares 29-28 tho round 2 was quite close.

Silva DQ was a joke. I saw 2 illegal punches at most. And there have been plenty of finishes where a couple stray illegal blows landed, nobody ever gets DQ'd (ask Vitor, KJ Noons, etc bout that).

I had Tavares 29-28 too even though I ebt Stout but Sherdog judges had it SD for Stout so I was hopeful. Stout would have won if he got more aggressive in round 2, and he would have definitely won a 5 round fight. He has no one to blame but himself. Successful event nonetheless, +5 units or so thanks to my large play on Vitor despite most other bets going poorly. AJ's striking was horribly exposed since he doesn't have a huge size advantage anymore at MW. He will get destroyed at LHW if he doesn't get cut. Enjoy Bellator, you extreme-weight-cutting-douchebag-coward. Have fun never being a contender now that you have to fight people your own size. Would have been +6 units or so if Silva didn't get DQ'd as that ruined 2 quarter unit parlays.

re: miller vs guillard... miller by sub, unless Guillard gets a lucky TKO stoppage before Miller can get things going in the first round. No bet yet, I think line is fair, if I had to pick a side i'd go Miller at current -160ish odds

i like Melvin at plus numbers. Better striker and athlete. Miller may be able to grapple with him but Melvin has improved his footwork and gameplanning recently. Many will overlook melvin now because he lost to Lauzon. That would be foolish. Lauzon may be the best first round fighter at 155. He seems to dominate the first few minutes of every fight.

Propping Miller by sub would seem to be the safest play here. Not terribly confident though, you never really know what to expect from Guillard.

I don't get the hate on AJ and thinking he is overhyped. He is a very good overall fighter, with decent and versatile striking along with good wrestling. He's like the Melvin Guillard of MW, has the talent and the athletism, but lacks other things.

AJ lost this fight for several reasons, 1. All weightloss and dehydration had its toll on his body, we saw after like 2 minutes, he was completely drained. 2. He wasn't allowed to do his gameplan, and that was basically do lay on Vitor and try to win by points, the referee stood them up too fast imo, it was ***** disgraceful how fast.

With that said, I'm glad Vitor won today.

There's some good value to be had on Melvin here, he has superior striking, decent TDD's and a lot faster.

why do people feel AJ is a great athlete? I think hes so clumsy when he moves.

This, Melvin Guillard is a far superior athlete to Anthony Johnson.

Johnson is WAY overhyped. That's not even in question. As I said before, people once thought he would challenge GSP. That's laughable in retrospect. His best wins are probably a tie between Charlie Brenneman and Dan Hardy. One of them has 0 grappling, the other has 0 striking.

Johnson is reasonably well-rounded and has some skills (and striking power) but it's definitely not right to call him "very good." His UFC record is 7-4. He was finished in all four of his losses. Of his 7 wins, only 2 are against current UFC fighters (one of whom is 0-4 in his last 4 and should arguably not be employed). That, my friends, is a mediocre fighter, plain and simple.

One thing is for sure, Edgar is going to be the first champ to get dethroned, the lightweight division is sooo packed atm.

LW is stacked, but a lot of those guys are quite good matchups for Edgar. I really think Bendo has the best shot at beating him.

Could see every champ except for Jones and Aldo lose their next fight.

Faber is always gonna be a handful. I favor Cruz but it could be rough.
Aldo will beat the living **** out of Korean zombie or Hioki.
Edgar vs Bendo is a very close fight.
GSP injured.
Anderson vs Chael. We saw the first fight.
Jones is untouchable as of right now.
JDS vs Overeem will be interesting. I'm still on the "need to see more from ubereem", but he could definitely beat jds if his mindset is right.

Among the worst matchups for Edgar IMO is Nate Diaz. Unfortunately, reports are that he suffered a detached retina in his win over Cerrone so we probably won't get to see that fight any time soon.

On a side note, I will get to see how right/wrong I am about the Struve/Herman fight in person since it's on the upcoming card in Omaha, where I'm from

Is he really? I think hes improved no doubt, but Edgar is a much better wrestler than Stevenson and also guida in my opinion. add to that Edgar has much much much better boxing than those guys, and probably better recovery as well.
If he can keep it standing Diaz can win, but even on their feet i think Edgar can more than hold his own. Especially when he combines it with random takedowns here and there.

Diaz has a much better chance against Bendo in my opinion.

"Struve/Herman"
Too lazy to search. Give me the cliffnotes for this fight.
I feel Herman should be the favorite without further examination.

Naw Bendo is too savage from top position for Diaz. You really think Edgar would just hold Diaz down for 5 rounds? We know he isn't going to accomplish anything significant on the ground. Edgar was rocked bad twice on the feet by a man I feel Diaz outboxed to a decision. Diaz has since shown big improvement in his standup (straighter punches, crisper combinations). I feel he has an edge on Edgar on the feet, and I don't feel Edgar can do what say Rory McDonald did to Diaz.

On Struve/Herman, many on the board felt Struve should be a favorite over Herman. I disagreed, using the reasoning that Struve has 1 win over a fighter rightfully employed by the UFC right now (and that fighter is Christian Morecraft -_-). Struve has consistently been beaten, and beaten badly when faced good to great opposition. Many have long considered Herman one of the most talented heavyweights out there. Basically, we agreed that if you think Herman is a decent to good UFC fighter, you should expect him to beat Struve.

I think Herman wins too. Morecraft, I'm not sure about him tbh, he may become a good gatekeeper, but nothing more than that. He's also 1-2 so far, so basically 1 fight from being cut. Basically whoever wins Pat vs Morecraft is going to be cut, and I think Pat might take this one if he can avoid getting to the ground, because he has by far the worst ground game in the UFC, like it's not even close.

Yeah i think Edgar can hold Diaz down or up against the cage IF HE NEEDS TO. I'm not sure he does.
Maynard packs a serious punch. More so than Diaz in my opinion.
Diaz is a much better boxer than Maynard, but so is BJ Penn. Edgars boxing is near flawless for what he does. He could use more power though and a little better head movement. Speed will be big in the exchanges, i can see Edgar getting inside and overwhelm Diaz and then press him against the cage to keep it on the inside.

I guess we'll see. It will be a good fight.

Struve is horrible. Hes a lanky chinny fighter who can't even use his reach in a proper way.
I'm not sold on herman but he beats struve in my opinion. Only hope i have for Struve is some weird triangle after getting rocked or something.

I think all 7 champs retain their next df most likely to lose is prob jds but theyre all favs imo

Also please please please cruz be under -200 again

yeah they're all obviously favorites, but big underdogs to all win their next fight.

I feel the titlefights upcoming are more evenly contested than what is most often the case.