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 07-15-2012, 07:07 PM #1 banned   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3 Math Regression Line Question Hi I have a question how to do a regression line please. I am trying to model how many points a NFL team will score in 1st half based on their full game line. I believe the relationship will be linear and as a team has a bigger full game line, they will score more points in the first half. However, some full game line points are worth more than others, for instance I expect a team to score relatively more points in the first half going from a full game line of 3.5 points to 4, as opposed to 4 to 4.5. I can even quantify how much more the 3.5 to 4 is worth as compared to 4 to 4.5. Manually I believe I know how to correct my regression line but I am trying to create these regression lines dynamically so I'd like to know how to build these changes systematically into my regression line. sorry if my explanation is poor or i am showing a misunderstanding somewhere, i am new to this, please ask if i am not clear somewhere, thanks!
 07-15-2012, 11:02 PM #2 Le Misanthrope     Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Spitsbergen Posts: 9,767 Re: Math Regression Line Question The OP is about sports betting, moved to more appropriate forum.
 07-15-2012, 11:09 PM #3 adept     Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: YOU DOWN WITH OPP Posts: 822 Re: Math Regression Line Question lol
 07-15-2012, 11:26 PM #4 adept     Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,190 Re: Math Regression Line Question move it back
 07-15-2012, 11:41 PM #5 veteran     Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: props manager, nolan syndicate Posts: 2,611 Re: Math Regression Line Question what do you do to keep getting banned?
 07-15-2012, 11:54 PM #6 Zero wave are madmen     Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Broadcasting Minor League Hockey! Posts: 61,569 Re: Math Regression Line Question This is awesome.
 07-15-2012, 11:59 PM #7 grinder   Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 518 Re: Math Regression Line Question # of accounts before giving up o/u 4.5 -120/-110
 07-17-2012, 02:17 AM #8 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: The Bellagio vault Posts: 21,222 Re: Math Regression Line Question As a statistician, "how to do a regression line" is a more complex topic than can really be answered succinctly on a message board. In addition, based on what I think you are saying (not really sure), I'm not sure that linear regression would be the best model here.
 07-17-2012, 08:12 AM #9 banned   Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 83 Re: Math Regression Line Question awesome
 07-17-2012, 10:57 AM #10 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Atlanta Posts: 5,275 Unluckyboy is the funniest poster in quite some time. This made my day
07-17-2012, 11:46 AM   #11
banned

Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 3
Re: Math Regression Line Question

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DannyOcean_ As a statistician, "how to do a regression line" is a more complex topic than can really be answered succinctly on a message board. In addition, based on what I think you are saying (not really sure), I'm not sure that linear regression would be the best model here.
hey danny a couple of questions. what would you consider doing instead of a regression model?

what important terms should i be learning more about to do regressions properly? i am familiar with least squares, weighted regressions, and i kind of know of residuals. what should i be keeping in mind as i go forward?

 07-17-2012, 12:01 PM #12 grinder   Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 616 Re: Math Regression Line Question P values of coefficients and the adjusted R squared
 07-17-2012, 01:39 PM #13 Zero wave are madmen     Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Broadcasting Minor League Hockey! Posts: 61,569 Re: Math Regression Line Question Hey iregress otherwise known as thebruiser500 and sayidthesavior. I didn't ban you the last time. I was letting you stay. All you had to do was behave. You were the idiot who posted a terrible thread in OOT. I didn't report it. I didn't do anything about it. Do you think maybe that thread is why you got banned? Had nothing to do with me. I was there for you dude. Oh well.

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