Maybe it's just me but this seems like one of the weakest fields in recent memory, and that the 3 betting favs might be battling it out on Sunday, or that a 100/1 long shot has a real chance. I'm betting the latter

Gary Woodland +10250
Shane Lowry +11250
Hideki Matsuyama +2050
Paul ****ing Casey +4000

Let's go!!!

Favorite: Jordan Spieth
Long Shot: Adam Hadwin

Snedecker is also a decent "long shot"

Spieth just missed the cut and their odds of winning are pretty awful the next week if the do, and Hadwin has never played the course and isn't world class by any means like Rahm who is the only first timer I would go with but his odds suck

I'm thinking Puma Boy might be a good play vs this field

Added Rory +905

I like Rory 9-1, Casey of course (any odds), Watson 42-1, Scott 33-1. Long shots Noren 112-1 and Berger 80-1. Probably also Leishman at 66-1

Fwiw I've picked the winner in the past two including a long shot on Willett last year

good points gmcarroll! I was just considering how well Spieth has played at Augusta. Ok, what do you think of the following 4 picks;

McIlroy 7.5-1
Rose 20-1
Snedeker 40-1
P. Reed 50-1

I like Berger as a long shot, seems like a better option than Hadwin.
Might throw $25 on Noren too if I can get him at 100-1 or better at Westgate.

Props coming out tomorrow, Tuesday, I'll post what I'm considering. Feedback, thoughts appreciated.

Even I don't think I can bring myself around to betting on Casey this year at the current odds. What he has done in his career to be at 38-1?

He hasn't won in almost 3 years, is pushing 40 and has exactly 1 tour win. Good luck to the guys betting him. Not me this year.

I thought the same thing, but my model doesn't hate it. He's pretty good at golf! There are better looks though (will post after R1 when I know which ones still have a chance)

Spieth MC'd Houston in '14 and then went on to T2 at Augusta his first year there, so this isn't a particularly good reason to fade him. Plus there were a lot of big/weird numbers in that second round in Houston from other notable players so I'd be inclined to disregard that round entirely. Pay more attention to Spieth's overall recent form, which has been very good.


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And he didn't win did he? I didn't say he can't play good. Winning is a different story and missing the cut usually doesn't work out in a win. Just how it goes. When they do miss the cut and win the next week it's usually a smaller tourney and definitely not the Masters

I'm not even large on him this year. His best shot to cash huge was 2 years ago when he was 150/1 and playing great and Masters is usually a 20 man field. This year his odds are blah.

Gary is my largest play. Gonna be a cool story if he ships it

Bolded part is the way to go. Brings better mojo

lol ok


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Kjeldsen +15000
Z.johnson +8000
Casey +4000 for 2+2
Mickelson +2800
Ricki +2000



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Just so we're clear missing a cut by 2 the week before = kiss of death but stepping away from the game for a few weeks to deal with a family issue = positive indicator?

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't touch Spieth this week with Ricky Steve's bus money, but sounds like an awful lot of #Making****Up.

This field just seems weak is the main thing and 100/1 pays better. I would guess that Gary hasn't sat around and not practiced at all since withdrawing to be with his wife. He's putted better than ever this year from 3-5 footers and if the wind howls like it's expected those are the ones that seem to get missed and I feel comfortable he won't drop shots. Scrambling proximity from 10-20 is as good as ever for when the wind blows his ball off the greens or just regular scrambles. And if none of that happens he can easily overpower par 5s here. 100/1 just seems better than 5/1 on DJ to me

got Thomas around 85:1 will be sweating him hard, other than that think its wise to fade Rahm and favor the good putters

These are the props I'm leaning towards.

Fowler Finish Under 20.5 -110

Garcia Finish Under 27.5 -110

Snedeker Finish Under 34.5 -110

Garcia -110 v. Casey

I'm seeing/hearing a decent amount of Sergio love this week even though he has a pretty extensive history of being crappy at Augusta and I don't get it. Since '05 he has one top 10 and 4 MCs


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In the last 20 years -- Cabrera, Immelman, Weir & Olazabal have all missed the cut in their last event prior to the Masters and went onto win.

Obviously you are probably formally correct that like most players who miss the cut in their event preceding the Masters won't win the Masters the following week, but basically all of the players who *made* the cut in their prior event also won't win this week.

Not in on Spieth this week either but his recent form is not bad and the MC in Houston was one bad round (he played OK on Thursday) and I agree with Iowa! that this heuristic sounds like makin' stuff up imo.

The skepticism about Casey is fair imo but the knock about the 1 win isn't a great metric. Hasn't he really only been full-time PGA since ~2015? That's what my database tells me anyway. Won 10+ times on the European Tour. It speaks to me of a profile of a guy who is pretty good but not quite elite -- basically, he wins alot in weaker field events and has struggled to win when the competition is tougher. Maybe it is temperament or whatever, not taking aggressive lines on Sunday but I don't even have his Sunday scores as different from his adjusted scoring average. More likely just variance. Stats look like a guy who CAN win this week though. Not saying it's a great price but I don't think it's way far off either.

Everybody is welcome to look up the data from 2013-2017 if they want but I'm just copying from 2008-2012

166 winners

64-166 made the cut the prior week
79-166 didn't play the previous week
23-166 missed the cut the previous week and went on to win the very next week

And if they need to correct some little tweaks in their swing or chipping to join Immelman and El Pato they're not getting a chance this week with the weather here in GA


Added Hoffman at pretty ****ty odds but 100:1 ish to ship.
Like O'Hair for a top 20 finish too

smashed all the early guys for first round leader
think its the move with the forecast

LOL I revived my Casey thread from a few years ago... I'm with you again on Casey this week. One time for the multi-year backers!

Uconn lost, Westwood wins, DJ needs slippers.