Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-27-2016, 06:04 AM   #76
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,644
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

He was changing the line of his bets after the bet.

So say he bet +100, then line moves to +200. He'd just change the line to +150. If it moves to +300. He'd then change his wager to +200.

I called him out for obviously inflating his record. He could choose any of the 10ish millionaire winners off the forum. I proposed Iowa! Then he wants my real information, which has no bearing on whether he is a fraud. He then backed out because he thought I was "angleshooting", when in reality its probably the most clear cut example of a fraudulent record that I have seen. It is up there with just outright deleting plays. (He also brings up an inane decimal odds example. Another example of his ongoing attempts at dishonesty.)

He also keeps pretending that he doesn't actively solicit money from other people for gambling, nor refer to his status as a winning bettor citing his (dubious) record keeping. If he kept records in the MMA thread, it'd be easy to see that he isn't. He has virtually 0 CLEV.

I will close with his rendition of events being as accurate as his record. Given his status as a known fraudster, and my reputation being pearly ****ing white. Hope that helps!
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 07:56 AM   #77
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: I AM CAPITAO
Posts: 17,890
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

So that's a no then to you betting against me being up 5 figures in the past 12 months across all sports? The one point I have conceded is I tracked records in ONE thread on 2p2 using incorrect methodology due to inexperience, I disavowed said record, but would have been profitable regardless had I tracked the bets accurately in that thread as the discrepancy caused by my error was less than the amount I was in the black. At no point did I solicit anything from anyone, claim to be anything more than a marginally winning recreational bettor or encourage anyone to tail my bets.

Regarding the MMA thread, I have never claimed to be up a large sum of money betting on MMA, I am very close to breakeven lifetime on that specific sport. My accurate records only go back a year or so and I don't have records of bets I have made live in casinos etc as well as from years ago. If you care, my 4 best sports are Rugby League, Rugby Union, AFL and NFL. I don't post any claims regarding my record in these sports, but could prove I am very profitable in them if challenged. I don't post about my record or discuss any of these sports on 2p2 though so it is irrelevant. If you would like to bet I am not profitable in any of those four sports specifically, feel free and I will post every wager I have made over the past year on said sport and provide the accounts I have done so from for a neutral arbitrator to verify.

If you're saying my rendition of events is inaccurate then specifically which part of it is? The answer is none of it and calling me a known fraudster when as far as I know zero people have ever complained about anything I have done gambling related or otherwise in my life is slanderous and dishonest.

Which of the following is inaccurate?

I have not solicited money from anyone for anything sportsbetting related on 2p2. Please prove otherwise.

Literally the only people who i've shared action with on sportsbetting are personal friends and are in no way related to me posting on 2p2. Please prove otherwise.

I've sold action here to play poker and have nothing but positive feedback from investors and have always paid out winnings quickly and with no issues. Whether you personally feel those packages were +EV or -EV is irrelevant as all of my stats/records were disclosed publicly in every thread. Please prove otherwise.

I offered to prove that my profit was within 1% of my claimed profit (which was more than anything i've ever posted on 2p2) to account for the chance of any record keeping errors which I admitted are a possibility over many thousands of bets, for example if I claim i'm up 100k I would have to be up over 99k for our wager to be graded in my favour. You declined. You wanted the rules of the bet to be if my accounting was off by $1 I lose. Over thousands of bets this makes you an enormous favourite over anyone who has made thousands of bets as any individual misgrade or typo would resolve the bet in your favour, hence my accusation of angle shooting.

You insisted on Iowa as the escrow even though I feel he has a strong bias towards you as a friend of yours and I do not know him despite his positive reputation here. I suggested various other potential escrows including mods on 2p2, all of which you declined. Do you dispute any of that?

You sent me abusing messages on Twitter. Please deny if false and I will prove that you did.

You openly admit that we could not come to terms because I thought you were angle shooting me. I still do think you were trying to angle shoot me, especially with your insistence to remain anonymous while I could not, and my offer from the previous post stands. If you don't think i'm up five figures betting on all sports over the past twelve months, feel free to put your money where your mouth is and we can try to agree to terms. Once again, i'm not trying to brag, I realise this is not particularly impressive and many posters here have better results, but it backs my claim to be a small overall winner which is all i've claimed to be.

You appear to be one of the worst human beings I have ever interacted with online, you are negative towards everyone except your small group of friends, you are arrogant, you contribute nothing of value to 2p2 and you are quite possibly an angle shooting scumbag given your unwillingness to bet with reasonable terms and you are certainly a coward not even willing to put your name to your slanderous accusations, torrents of abuse and proposed bets.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 08:11 AM   #78
rafiki
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
rafiki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 31,582
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Just sounds like one of you needs to block the other? It's probably not worth the aggravation.
rafiki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 09:05 AM   #79
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: I AM CAPITAO
Posts: 17,890
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

As you can see in my previous post I suggested that we simply no longer respond to each other but he comes into every unrelated thread I post in spamming abuse and slanderous accusations. He has literally been doing this for nearly two years. It is baffling to me that he has not been banned from the forum for the way he treats people, and it isn't just me that he acts that way towards.

I've said many times due to inexperience in one thread I used incorrect methodology over a small sample of bets which would have been profitable even if i'd not adjusted any prices to try and get an average price for any wager. I explained that I was using the exact methodology I was using in that same thread the picks were posted in so nobody was misled and at no point did I encourage anyone to tail my bets or solicit money in any way because I was posting for entertainment, Mikhel still insists on constantly derailing unrelated threads years later and calling me a fraud and scammer which is both false and slanderous. Of course he also does this anonymously because he is not man enough to put his name to his words, i'm sure it's not because he's a socially awkward coward when he isn't also being a big tough internet warrior hiding behind anonymity, right? It couldn't possibly be.

I'm fine with him saying he doesn't believe i'm a winning sportsbettor or whatever personal insults he wants to throw but calling me a scammer/fraudster without providing any proof is unacceptable and slanderous on a public forum.

Prove i've scammed or defrauded anyone ever in any material way Mikhel or I want a retraction. I'll wait. We'll all wait. If you call someone a scammer you'd better have proof. You can call me a douchebag or poor or a loser all you want, but I don't call you a scammer because to my knowledge you've never scammed anyone. I call you pathetic, because you are. I expect the same from you. I called you an angle shooter because objectively, I would argue the terms you set would result in you winning the bet most of the time even if my record is 100% as claimed over 8,000 bets or whatever as a single $1 rounding error or typo would settle in your favour. My example was not 'inane', under the terms you offered an 'error' like that would have resulted in you winning the bet. I offered reasonable counter terms, you declined and then stalk me like an obsessive ex girlfriend even outside of 2p2. It's sad.

I have no interest in interacting with you any further unless you want to bet on anything I suggested in the previous post, specifically that I am up five figures sportsbetting in the past 12 months (part of the bet is you do not remain anonymous, as my real name is publicly linked to 2p2 and yours should be too if we're making a large wager, if you won't agree to that term don't bother).

It's worth noting you've never provided proof that you're a part of the millionaire's club and all of the other various stuff you've claimed, I don't care in the slightest, but it's absurd that you call me a scammer for claiming to be a marginally winning recreational sportsbettor when you claim to be a millionaire and never post your own picks or provide any proof of your claims either. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you are a millionaire and one of the world's best sports handicappers. It makes it even more sad that you are this pathetic in your online persona.

From now on i'll simply report you to the moderators when you stalk me from thread to thread to derail the thread with your inane garbage and baseless accusations. If you have anything to say to me in the future feel free to PM me and i'll respond but don't derail election/football/whatever else threads just so that you can throw baseless accusations at me while I call you a socially awkward douchebag, nobody wants to read that **** and it's pointless and a waste of both of our time (especially yours, since i'm sure a millionaire's hourly is too high to waste on trolling 'poor fish' like me)

I will conclude this WAY tl;dr post with a sincere **** you, Mikhel05 and unless you want to lose some money to me I have no desire to interact with you any further beyond accepting a retraction of your claim that i'm a scammer and fraud. You can say you 'think' i'm a losing bettor but unless you want to put up your money to prove it and i'll open up all of my accounts to be audited by a third party if we can agree on terms and an escrow, I have nothing else to say to you.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 10:26 AM   #80
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,644
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

It would be impossible for me to prove or disprove that bet. You simply need some subset of your accounts to be winning >5 figures and then can fail to provide information.

Honestly, I'm not sure if you're smart enough to shoot this angle or just an in earnest dumb guy. Given your posting history and results, I'll stick with the latter.

Reminds me of Ed, who couldn't run a basic binomial.
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 10:31 AM   #81
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,644
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I offered to prove that my profit was within 1% of my claimed profit (which was more than anything i've ever posted on 2p2) to account for the chance of any record keeping errors which I admitted are a possibility over many thousands of bets, for example if I claim i'm up 100k I would have to be up over 99k for our wager to be graded in my favour. You declined. You wanted the rules of the bet to be if my accounting was off by $1 I lose. Over thousands of bets this makes you an enormous favourite over anyone who has made thousands of bets as any individual misgrade or typo would resolve the bet in your favour, hence my accusation of angle shooting.

You insisted on Iowa as the escrow even though I feel he has a strong bias towards you as a friend of yours and I do not know him despite his positive reputation here. I suggested various other potential escrows including mods on 2p2, all of which you declined. Do you dispute any of that?
This is a whole cloth fabrication.

You never made thousands of bets in the eSports thread. Furthermore, you wanted time to do some basic math. You literally just need to be able to count. You claim 10k is a large amount, but can't be bothered to ****ing add?

You make claims about slander, but we can take a poll. You have declined any efforts I have made to ask other professionals how they view you and me. You simply don't have the mental ability to benefit from my posting. It happens. You didn't have the mental ability to play online poker professionally. It happens. You need to stop for a second and consider why everyone thinks you're a total joke rather than digging your heels in an resorting to name calling and other sorts of buffoonery.

I'd be happy to let n00b590 escrow and judge. But I guess you've openly admitted that you kept a fraudulent record. So w/e.
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 10:45 AM   #82
jstclkdabtn
journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 394
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
This is a whole cloth fabrication.

You never made thousands of bets in the eSports thread. Furthermore, you wanted time to do some basic math. You literally just need to be able to count. You claim 10k is a large amount, but can't be bothered to ****ing add?

You make claims about slander, but we can take a poll. You have declined any efforts I have made to ask other professionals how they view you and me. You simply don't have the mental ability to benefit from my posting. It happens. You didn't have the mental ability to play online poker professionally. It happens. You need to stop for a second and consider why everyone thinks you're a total joke rather than digging your heels in an resorting to name calling and other sorts of buffoonery.

I'd be happy to let n00b590 escrow and judge. But I guess you've openly admitted that you kept a fraudulent record. So w/e.
You're a very sad individual. Please seek professional help.
jstclkdabtn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 12:36 PM   #83
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,644
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

For those following along at home. A brief explanation of why ROI is dumb and not used by any professionals.

ROI is simply the amount of money you return divided by money at risk. (So this would not include no actions, but would include pushes.) Expected ROIs can range wildly from -100% upwards of 1000%, it is still relatively trivial to find 100% ROI bets routinely. However, the problem with high ROI bets is that mathematically they need to be attached to longer odds which limits their potential for kelly growth. (This is basic math.) Furthermore, in order to retain a high ROI, you may decide to stop betting lower ROI, but still +EV bets. This is why every single pro just cares about how much you can make. No one is interested in 10% ROI player props, but are very interested in 1% ROI NFL closers. Ultimately all this metrics are for the sole purpose of making the most money as possible. (Which distills all your skills into one easy to understand number.) A terrible poker analogy would be would you rather be interested in listening to some guy ranting about his 10PTBB/100 at NL10 or the guy who made 3 million at an unknown PTBB/100.

This is all pretty obvious and basic math/logic. But I know the recs sometimes wanna get a little bit more of an understanding.

NB: This single post probably has contributed more to the knowledge of people who want to learn about sportsbetting than everything SwoopAE has ever posted.
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 02:49 PM   #84
jstclkdabtn
journeyman
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 394
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
NB: This single post probably has contributed more to the knowledge of people who want to learn about sportsbetting than everything SwoopAE has ever posted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c
jstclkdabtn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 03:43 PM   #85
Nick Diaz
adept
 
Nick Diaz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: The floor at Tristar
Posts: 842
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

More barclass and less bickering over making or not 10k a year un spotsbetting Imo.

fwiw swoop At least posts the majority of his mma bets before the fights unlike some idiots That keep posting +200 / +300 imaginary bets after the events havé taken place.

I see rsigs posting hère again now that hé has crushed cancer. That made me happy
Nick Diaz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 05:39 PM   #86
rafiki
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
rafiki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 31,582
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

oh snap sigs beat cancer? Nice one sigs. Didn't know. Well done man.
rafiki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 08:29 PM   #87
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,279
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

% of roll risked daily is the 2nd most important stat, imo. If going busto isn't a potential outcome virtually every single day then you're doing it wrong.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2016, 09:39 PM   #88
andr3w321
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Seattle
Posts: 1,089
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
If going busto isn't a potential outcome virtually every single day then you won't end up broke
fyp
andr3w321 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2016, 03:42 AM   #89
Mihkel05
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 3,644
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
% of roll risked daily is the 2nd most important stat, imo. If going busto isn't a potential outcome virtually every single day then you're doing it wrong.
Does you count funds in slow pay books risked?
Mihkel05 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 10:53 AM   #90
inmeclf3
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 16
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
For those following along at home. A brief explanation of why ROI is dumb and not used by any professionals.

ROI is simply the amount of money you return divided by money at risk. (So this would not include no actions, but would include pushes.) Expected ROIs can range wildly from -100% upwards of 1000%, it is still relatively trivial to find 100% ROI bets routinely. However, the problem with high ROI bets is that mathematically they need to be attached to longer odds which limits their potential for kelly growth. (This is basic math.) Furthermore, in order to retain a high ROI, you may decide to stop betting lower ROI, but still +EV bets. This is why every single pro just cares about how much you can make. No one is interested in 10% ROI player props, but are very interested in 1% ROI NFL closers. Ultimately all this metrics are for the sole purpose of making the most money as possible. (Which distills all your skills into one easy to understand number.) A terrible poker analogy would be would you rather be interested in listening to some guy ranting about his 10PTBB/100 at NL10 or the guy who made 3 million at an unknown PTBB/100.

This is all pretty obvious and basic math/logic. But I know the recs sometimes wanna get a little bit more of an understanding.

NB: This single post probably has contributed more to the knowledge of people who want to learn about sportsbetting than everything SwoopAE has ever posted.
Been loitering for a while, but just couldn't resist registering in order to comment on this thread.

"ROI is dumb and not used by any professionals". You are speaking absolute s***. Whilst clearly there exists a market/stake size/ROI evolution for most professional gamblers (prop-->main/$xxx--->$xxxxxxx/>7%---><3%), to merely class any measure of ROI as "dumb and not used by any professionals", suggests to me that you are either a) full of s*** & absolutely not a professional, or b) a troll.

You think that StarLizard, Smartodds, FootballRadar etc. would agree with you?

Swoop - Unfortunately, it seems that Mihkel05 is just one bad smell that I can't see going away anytime soon. I guess he's made his million(s) and can now sit back and spend his (valuable) time trolling on here
inmeclf3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 11:33 AM   #91
B00T
Pooh-Bah
 
B00T's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,231
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

When you are wagering millions of dollars a week, you don't give the slightest **** if the bet returns 1% or 10%. You care whether you can bet $500 or $50,000 on something.

Anyone who actually wagers more than McNugget money will tell you this. Guess your StarBuzzards, and the like are a bunch of posers and pours if they don't agree.

Go back to loitering.
B00T is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 11:45 AM   #92
inmeclf3
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 16
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by B00T View Post
When you are wagering millions of dollars a week, you don't give the slightest **** if the bet returns 1% or 10%. You care whether you can bet $500 or $50,000 on something.

Anyone who actually wagers more than McNugget money will tell you this. Guess your StarBuzzards, and the like are a bunch of posers and pours if they don't agree.

Go back to loitering.
You must be some American donk, correct? Ever heard of Tony Bloom?

May I ask, are you wagering millions of dollars a week? $50,000 stake is minuscule to the real big boys (of which, you are not one, Sir)
inmeclf3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 11:54 AM   #93
TomG
veteran
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: props manager, nolan syndicate
Posts: 3,135
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

FWIW I track ROI obsessively.

It's a useful metric as long as your overall objective is not to maximize it.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 12:01 PM   #94
inmeclf3
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 16
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
FWIW I track ROI obsessively.

It's a useful metric as long as your overall objective is not to maximize it.
This.

Biggest syndicates in the World are confronted by this on a daily basis. Bet $400k on morning of game @ expected ROI of 3.5% or bet $1m in hour before game @ expected ROI of 2% (given you have to factor in likely market direction)?

The decision is much more complicated than a simple "ROI means s***" - are we likely to see opposition etc.? Market profiling, of course, is not that easy.
inmeclf3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 12:21 PM   #95
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,279
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by inmeclf3 View Post
Biggest syndicates in the World are confronted by this on a daily basis. Bet $400k on morning of game @ expected ROI of 3.5% or bet $1m in hour before game @ expected ROI of 2% (given you have to factor in likely market direction)?

The decision is much more complicated than a simple "ROI means s***" - are we likely to see opposition etc.? Market profiling, of course, is not that easy.
As someone who bets millions a day against your heroes, I can promise you that ROI never enters the picture when making these choices. Maximizing EG is pretty much the only concern.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 12:26 PM   #96
inmeclf3
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 16
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
As someone who bets millions a day against your heroes, I can promise you that ROI never enters the picture when making these choices. Maximizing EG is pretty much the only concern.
and you are who?
inmeclf3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 12:29 PM   #97
inmeclf3
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 16
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
As someone who bets millions a day against your heroes, I can promise you that ROI never enters the picture when making these choices. Maximizing EG is pretty much the only concern.
...and if you bet "millions a day" against them, you must be very poor
inmeclf3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 12:31 PM   #98
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,279
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by inmeclf3 View Post
...and if you bet "millions a day" against them, you must be very poor
Nah, just decades younger and uninterested in pooling my fortune together with others.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 03:49 PM   #99
rafiki
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
rafiki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 31,582
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Ok I take it back, nobody block anybody. This is actually pretty great.
rafiki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2016, 04:41 PM   #100
n00b590
grinder
 
n00b590's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: de ilusion tambien se vive
Posts: 698
re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
FWIW I track ROI obsessively.

It's a useful metric as long as your overall objective is not to maximize it.
Do you even bet?
n00b590 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:26 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online