Late July MLB Picks+Discussion Thread (recreational bettors welcome)

[rsigley]

Today:
First Inning K: 2-3 -0.51u
What Team Will Score First?: 2-1 +1.35
Team Winning After 1st: 1-0-1 +1u
Score First Inning: 5-5 -0.15u
HRE: 5-4-1 +1.05u
Total Bases: 9-12-6 -2.42
Team Totals: 8-6 +1.33u
2H Bets: 11-6-2 +4.60
Total: 43-37-10 +6.25u

YTD:
1st Inning K's: 6-4-1 +4.21u
What Team Will Score First?: 3-1 -0.21
Team Winning After 1st: 5-2-1 +3.18u
Score First Inning: 8-9 -1.48u
HRE: 9-16-3 -10.55u
Total Bases: 18-18-18 +0.12u
Team Totals: 17-15-1 +0.67u
2H Bets: 22-11-3 +10u
Total: 90-79-28 +6.94u

i don't bet baseball on sunday so more picks on mon

[Rasputin420]

Originally Posted by rsigley

i don't bet baseball on sunday

you pray on sunday?

[Pugwashed]

Originally Posted by kyleb

More specifically: Why do you think it is good, and why do you think you are smarter than the bookmaker who made that line?

The White Sox are 4 games out, 3 games behind the Tigers.

1 through 5/6? they have the best starting pitching in the division by along way, bullpen is solid. Offense has massively under performed in the first half, mainly Alex Rios and Adam Dunn but I'd expect both of them hit better than they have so far (at least they can't get worse).

For the Indians to win the division they need some young unproven starters to keep pitching good down the stretch, probably throwing more innings than any of them have before and they need Sizemore and Hafner to stay healthy (could happen?). Basically I think they need some big help with starting pitching and the offense through some trades if they're gonna be competitive down the stretch. I don't see them winning the division.

The Tigers starting pitching beyond Verlander is pretty average. Even Brad Penny usually manages a lights out first half before his normal second half collapse and he didn't even do that this year. They have some guys that can hit.

Even if the White Sox only win the division 30% of the time, they only need to win the world series every 1/12 times they make the playoffs to break even on this. And I think they win the division more often than that.

Like I said, I'm a sports betting noob looking for second opinions from people that might be good at this. These were just my thoughts.

[MyTurn2Raise]

baseball prospectus has the white sox making the playoffs slightly below 20% of the time. If they were 50/50 in every series after that (which they won't be given the likely playoff competition), they would be 40 to 1.

[rsigley]

Originally Posted by Rasputin420

you pray on sunday?

nah historically big loser mlb sunday. too many people rest, i think there's some motivation thing where people just want to go home. in four years i've always done horrible on sunday so this year i haven't bothered

[MyTurn2Raise]

I feel like losing more on the Ms, today. They are due, after all.

[rsigley]

usually abotu this time i talk myself out of it so 1pm games, rest coming soon

Total Bases:
Cabrera vs Quentin -120
Alexei vs Peralta +106
Victor Martinez vs Koerko -101
Lind vs Cano +103
Pagan vs Rollins +100
Murphy vs Ibanez -110
Bruce vs Holliday +117
Phillips vs Berkman +109

Score First:
CHA/DET Yes -110
NYA/TOR Yes -120
NYN/PHI Yes -107
SLN/CIN Yes -110

Team Score First:
DET +118
NYN +129
CIN +125

Team Winning After First:
DET -109
NYN -102

Team Totals:
DET o4.5 +106
TOR o4.5 +100
NYA o4.5 -125
NYN o3.5 -125
PHI o4 -120

HRE:
DET/CHA FG o28.5 -110
DET/CHA 1i o3 +115
NYA/TOR 1i o3 +102
NYN/PHI 1i o3 +136
NYN/PHI FG o26.5 -115
CIN/SLN 1i o3 +123
CIN/SLN FG o28 -115


2H:
DET -110
DET/CHA o3.5 -110
NYA -120
PHI -115
PHI/NYN o3.5 +115
CIN/SLN 2H o3.5 -110

[rsigley]

here's my full card for props/2h. day i have least confidence in have most picks (113 here, 19 props not posted, and about 37 between fg/1i lines), so gonna be awesome day i feel it


Total Bases (pick on left):
Cabrera vs Quentin -120
Alexei vs Peralta +106
Victor Martinez vs Koerko -101
Lind vs Cano +103
Pagan vs Rollins +100
Murphy vs Ibanez -110
Bruce vs Holliday +117
Phillips vs Berkman +109
Wieters vs Hafner +110
Markakis vs Brantley -115
Morse vs Freeman -102
Pence vs McCutcher +105
Mauer vs Homer -130
Valencia vs Cabrera +109
Ramirez vs Castro -130
Helton vs Morgan -110
Hart vs Wigginton -115
Willingham vs Trumbo +107
Crisp vs Hunter -108
Maybin vs Ross +103
Ethier vs Young -120
Drew vs Gwynn Jr. +108
Smoak vs Hamilton +126
Suzuki vs Young +113
Ackley vs Kinsler +116
BZA vs Ellsbury +116
Longoria vs Youk +111

First Inning K's:
ATL +121 (ATL A DOG??? they the best ever)
BOS -156
MIN +149
CLE +109
PIT +153
ANA +225

Score First Inning:
CHA/DET Yes -110
NYA/TOR Yes -120
NYN/PHI Yes -107
SLN/CIN Yes -110
CLE/BAL Yes -130
WAS/ATL Yes +120
PIT/HOU No -136
FLO/CHN Yes -140
MIL/COL Yes -126
OAK/ANA No -150

Team Score First:
DET +118
NYN +129
CIN +125
WAS +103
MIN +113
COL +135
OAK +104
SEA +136
TBA +145

Team Winning After First:
DET -109
NYN -102
HOU -120
COL -102

Team Totals:
DET o4.5 +106
TOR o4.5 +100
NYA o4.5 -125
NYN o3.5 -125
PHI o4 -120
BAL o4.5 -120
CLE o5 +105
ATL o4 -106
WAS o3 +105
CHN u4.5 +105
COL o4.5 -101
OAK u3.5 -110
ARI o4.5 -105
LAN o3.5 -115
SEA o3 -120

HRE:
DET/CHA FG o28.5 -110
DET/CHA 1i o3 +115
NYA/TOR 1i o3 +102
NYN/PHI 1i o3 +136
NYN/PHI FG o26.5 -115
CIN/SLN 1i o3 +123
CIN/SLN FG o28 -115
CLE/BAL 1i o3 -102
ATL/BAL 1i o3 +168
ATL/BAL FG o24.5 -110
PIT/HOU 1i u3 -194
PIT/HOU FG u24 +105
CHN/FLO 1i o3 -116
CHN/FLO FG o31.5 -108
OAK/ANA u24 -110
LAN/ARI 1i o3 +135
LAN/ARI FG o27.5 -110
SEA/TEX 1i o3 +162


2H:
DET -110
DET/CHA o3.5 -110
NYA -120
PHI -115
PHI/NYN o3.5 +115
CIN/SLN 2H o3.5 -110
CLE -115
CLE/BAL o4 -110 (it also randomly shows o3.5 -140 that is fine too)
WAS +120
WAs/ATL o3 +100
HOU -110
HOU/PIT u3 -115
KCA +100
KCA/MIN o3.5 +100
FLO -115
FLO/CHN 2H u4 +105
COL -105
COL/MIL o3.5 -130
SDN -105
SDN/SFN o2.5 -105
ARI -120
LAN/ARI 2H o3.5 +110
TEX -140
SEA/TEX o3 +105

[DodgerIrish]

Wat no 1st 5 Innings?

[rsigley]

i keep them to myself bigger limits

[kdog]

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

I feel like losing more on the Ms, today. They are due, after all.

Curious as to what you are seeing in Seattle MT2R. My model has shown Texas undervalued every game in this series including today. All the pitching matchups close, offense overwhelmingly in Rangers favor. Seattle has a bullpen edge but that gets somewhat negated by their offense being so putrid that the Texas starters can go deeper.

[rsigley]

Team Scores 1st:
DET +118 LOSS
NYN +129 LOSS
CIN +125 LOSS
WAS +103 LOSS
MIN +113 LOSS

yeaaa

[kdog]

Originally Posted by rsigley

Team Scores 1st:
DET +118 LOSS
NYN +129 LOSS
CIN +125 LOSS
WAS +103 LOSS
MIN +113 LOSS

yeaaa

See what happens when you skip church to gamble

[wiper]

how long does the process from turning on the computers to clicking 'yes' on all those bets take?

[rsigley]

i usually wake up 5am and generate every line and make sure it makes sense, then when they're posted a couple minute because on pinny you can load every prop on one screen and just type in the bets and hit enter

then just wait until can bet it again for some. only hard part is they don't post them all at once so i set up my computer to do a notification once it's up on pinny so i can bet it then i hit a button and it puts the bet into a database for auto grading

so like today when i bet after all the lines were up it took only 4 or 5 minutes, then a couple more minutes for ML bets/team totals/2H (had to go to bookmaker)