July - Sept LC Thread: Sultans of Swing

[MrWooster]

Originally Posted by sayhey69

what kind of model. ols?

Predictions are based on ELO, then the system attempts to find good bets. It uses results from 2002-2012 (minus the last 800 results) as input and the last 800 results of 2012 to test the system.

[NajdorfDefense]

I'd think you'd have to at least throw out 'exhibitions' where the top players get paid to show up, collect their check, and then lose in the 1st/2nd round so they can rest and worry about the real tournaments. [The appearance fee could be above 1st place in some of these dinkier locations]

IIRC, atp/wta tried to ban the practice of paid entries but it didnt' really take. I may have missed something though.

[MrWooster]

I did a little experiment to try to gage the accuracy of the model. I split the predictions into buckets of 10% each and measured the accuracy of results in each bucket. E.g. for all players where a win was predicted between 50%-60%, the optimum result would be an average win of 55%.

These are the results:

Bucket(Predicted win %): 0-10 Win: 2 Loss: 35 Actual Win %: 5.41
Bucket(Predicted win %): 10-20 Win: 32 Loss: 146 Actual Win %: 17.98
Bucket(Predicted win %): 20-30 Win: 83 Loss: 214 Actual Win %: 27.95
Bucket(Predicted win %): 30-40 Win: 132 Loss: 279 Actual Win %: 32.12
Bucket(Predicted win %): 40-50 Win: 239 Loss: 278 Actual Win %: 46.23
Bucket(Predicted win %): 50-60 Win: 277 Loss: 239 Actual Win %: 53.68
Bucket(Predicted win %): 60-70 Win: 280 Loss: 132 Actual Win %: 67.96
Bucket(Predicted win %): 70-80 Win: 214 Loss: 83 Actual Win %: 72.05
Bucket(Predicted win %): 80-90 Win: 146 Loss: 32 Actual Win %: 82.02
Bucket(Predicted win %): 90-100 Win: 35 Loss: 2 Actual Win %: 94.59

Are these results meaningful?

[crzyjoedavola]

Is there anywhere I can find the chance of basketball game with a 2 point spread going into overtime? I know I could do the work myself but I would like to save some time.

[MikeSki]

college football get here already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tyler]

nba 6.54%
college 8.27%

[sharky21222]

Originally Posted by MikeSki

college football get here already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

really looking forward to it !

[MikeSki]

Originally Posted by sharky21222

really looking forward to it !

will your capping be altered by the new changes this season?

[sharky21222]

Originally Posted by MikeSki

will your capping be altered by the new changes this season?

not a big fan of the changes but capping shouldnt be affected by much.

[GoDeViLs]

fun times

finished 9th fwiw

[wiper]

best hand won?

[GoDeViLs]

yea I guess, aces full lost to royal flush, kinda disheartening (I had AT).

[GoDeViLs]

now playing $50 rebuy tho, so I guess it's moot



edit: that ss was from $6 rebuy

[wiper]

Originally Posted by GoDeViLs

yea I guess, aces full lost to royal flush, kinda disheartening (I had AT).

oh. ohhhhh.

makes sense now, didn't see the royal.

ouch.

[B00T]

AND