I think a book should have an over-under prop on how many times Musberger uses the term "honey badger." I am thinking O30 -110 is fair, maybe higher? Does Mateiu even like being called that? I do not get the impression he does.

FWIW I think Herbstreet will realize it has been way overplayed and hold back, but I can see Musberger going crazy overboard.

For those of us who have taken advantage for years of super-weak numbers on the vegas parlay cards, looks like the books have finally wised up.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-.../story/1221011

I felt really sorry for Terribles when I went in there.

“I think a few groups have figured out the math and value of each half-point in regards to the set lines on the parlay card which is why we see more and more bettors coming in with stacks of cards each week,” said the anonymous director."


hahahaa

Well it was good while it lasted, sometimes really good. The numbers were so bad so often that it seemed embarrassing going in there and betting. A really dumb model to begin with. Years ago Imperial Palace was burned over and again and finally gave up with the printed card and went to the board for the spreads, which I expect will happen with most of the books.

In my infancy in Vegas, I remember asking someone, "XXX sportsbook has 5x points promotion this week on parlay cards, +EV?"

"It's +EV with 0x points"

the cardinals fans aren't even more annoying than their primary rival, the cubs fans

boston wins this not even close

This is so sick.

I'm angry and bitter the old chat thread won't die

I'm going to go post in the old chat thread now.

how will a longest td o/u 39 yds be graded if no TD?

push or under wins?

I'm too tired to figure out my NFL futures equity but here's what I have going for me that I've accumulated over the season:

1.8u on Giants to win super bowl (+1800 or 33.3u)

1.1u on Saints to win super bowl (+800 or 9u)

1.8u on 49ers to win super bowl (+1100 or 20u)

.5u on Denver to win AFC championship (+8000 or 40u)

.5u on Denver to win Superbowl (+22000 or 110u)

.5 u on Denver vs Green Bay super bowl matchup (+18800 or 94u)

I'm only down 2u on 1) Green bay going undefeated and 2) Eagles superbowl

I obv have a lot of negatively correlated stuff here as it turns out (like Saints playing 49ers this weekend) and having basically nothing on Packers or Pats.

Maybe I'll see what my equity is when I wake up tomorrow.

1.8 now worth 1.59
1.1 now worth 2.00
1.8 now worth 1.07
0.5 now worth 1.58
0.5 now worth 1.77
0.5 now worth 1.91
1.0 now worth 0.00
1.0 now worth 0.00

8.2 now worth 9.92

You have a really large portion of that riding on denver.

Haha, I'm a denver homer

ETA: I made my superbowl bet on the 49ers a loooong time ago (halfway through the season?)

Interesting to see that it went down in value considering they are in the second round of playoffs

what kind of music do you guys listen to? This is my favorite band

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aKIpMl3Xh8&feature=fvsr

2 hrs and nobody posted the Bounce That Dick link?

oh yea, our new resident pissant is temp-banned

No and yes.

If you can afford to tie up the money and if you can still find the line, Adele could be found at -350 to win the Grammy for Album of the Year, meanwhile she's at -700 at Pinny, -800 at The Greek. The best I saw was -300 at topbet, but I believe they've been implicated in several scams.

To be fair, last year Eminem was at -800 to win and lost to Arcade Fire, but Adele seems like much more of a lock - not only did her album sell better than anything in the past 7-8 years, she is much more conservative than Eminem, something that voters like.

I've got some at -325, most at -350 for her to win 4u.

who is Adele?

A singer that's making a lot of people a lot of money with this song.

Can anyone point me to a useful resource to get me started on modeling? I'm starting to learn R and it'd be nice to understand some of the basics.

What are a few of the best sports to start with? I'm thinking sports where there is a lot of data available, and it is relatively easy to build a useful model.

you might want to just start with excel until you get a full grasp of what/how you want to go about building.

baseball is probably the easiest sport to start with since it can be broken down to simple pitcher/batter match-ups. also a lot of analysis has already been done on the sport that you can steal.

r is great for some stuff. maybe start with excel since it's easier to learn and work with. just ask questions here. i'll help with excel and r stuff if it's a question where it's clear you've spent some time thinking about already before asking.

for books

michael murray's betting baseball
dean oliver's basketball on paper
mathletics and scorecasting for ideas to steal

there are a thousand r and excel books

Read the code on this page. Markov chaining will be critical to understanding baseball.

http://tangotiger.net/markov.html

What is the point of this thread?