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03-19-2014 , 07:26 PM

#126

andr3w321

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,148

Much better odds colluding and filling out the bracket these guys will send you: http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com/

Quote

03-19-2014 , 07:43 PM

#127

inkognegro

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,249

David your x/y math is relevant because the top 20 imperfect brackets get 100k...

Last edited by inkognegro; 03-19-2014 at 07:44 PM. Reason: Never mind, been mentioned

Quote

03-19-2014 , 07:47 PM

#128

sb77

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 568

Quote:

Originally Posted by andr3w321

Much better odds colluding and filling out the bracket these guys will send you: http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com/

so you have to live in usa to enter this according these rules

Quote

03-19-2014 , 09:39 PM

#129

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

25% shot picked by 5% than a 30% shot picked by 15%.

and doing either of these things is almost definitely a huge fish play. there's more than enough close matchups that you don't ever need to go that low.

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03-19-2014 , 09:40 PM

#130

jrod

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 275

There will be 63 games played in the NCAA tournament, so if each game was 50/50 the odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 2^63.

Assuming that each first round game is 50/50, the odds of a perfect bracket after round 1 are 1 in 2^32, or about 1 in 4.3 billion.

Obviously there is some skill in predicting the winner but the overall odds are still much smaller than winning the lottery and quicken is only taking 15,000,000 entries.

At least the top 20 brackets get 100K a piece.

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03-19-2014 , 10:47 PM

#131

judgenook

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 131

i hope u picked SPARTY all da way if u want any chance at da billion

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03-20-2014 , 12:48 AM

#132

Shimmy_shimmyYa

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 91

This is why I have been saving my "one time." I'll take the lump in cash. Thanks Warren.

Quote

03-20-2014 , 01:51 AM

#133

Jason Moneytaker

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 106

Intuitively, it seems the odds would be a lot lower. I guess that's because the individual outcomes are binary and because I'm really bad at math. But with 15 million brackets, I wonder how many will get the first 32 games right? And then how many will get the next 16 right?

Any reason why this appears to be more possible than the math states?

Also Yahoo requires a cell phone # for each person who enters the contest which you must agree to receive marketing updates from.

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03-20-2014 , 02:07 AM

#134

BUSTYOU79

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 68

I'm in Florida wins it all!

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03-20-2014 , 06:00 AM

#135

-sham-

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,751

we shoulda done a last longer

Quote

03-20-2014 , 06:09 AM

#136

The Detonator

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,017

given the huge odds, at what round do we expect this thing to be over?

i cant help but envision the coin flipping contest here, even though each round the field we be slashed, somebody should advance past round 2, then 3 and so on

How many alive at the E8? Surely if anybody is alive then, its a remarkable achievement

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03-20-2014 , 10:02 AM

#137

12bigworm81

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,040

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Detonator

Since 1998 ESPN has never had a perfect bracket with over 30 million contestants. In fact only ONE person in the last 7 years made it out of the first round with a perfect bracket. (About 1.5mil people play each year.)

...still worth the freeroll!

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03-20-2014 , 10:54 AM

#138

zrap

adept

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 992

If nobody hits this then we can be sure that time travel isn't possible yet.

I'm sure if it was like in Back to the Future 2 this would certainly be the time to break out the sports almanac.

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03-20-2014 , 02:05 PM

#139

HotzenplOdds

adept

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,130

Saw this on reddit:

http://billmill.org/roundbracket/

Quote

03-20-2014 , 02:47 PM

#140

jackaaron

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,560

I lost ONE BILLION dollars because of Aaron Craft. Thanks a lot Aaron Craft.

Quote

03-20-2014 , 02:52 PM

#141

omnishakira

High Troller

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 9,732

you really need to be a loser to participate

just filling whatever joke you need to fill isnt Worth your time even if you work at mcdonald given the chance to win. i would rather find a penny on the street

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03-20-2014 , 03:01 PM

#142

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,074

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

and doing either of these things is almost definitely a huge fish play. there's more than enough close matchups that you don't ever need to go that low.

In real life the best play would be to pick two or three tiny underdogs in the first round and all favorites otherwise.

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03-20-2014 , 03:21 PM

#143

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by omnishakira

you really need to be a loser to participate

if enjoying college basketball means you're a loser, then i agree

Quote

03-20-2014 , 03:58 PM

#144

Pokerlogist

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 3,302

Quote:

Originally Posted by andr3w321

Much better odds colluding and filling out the bracket these guys will send you: http://www.takebuffettsbillion.com/

lol Dayton just upset Ohio State which may kill this strategy and a whole lot of other peoples entries, including my own.

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03-20-2014 , 05:51 PM

#145

-sham-

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,751

Harvard...

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03-21-2014 , 03:46 AM

#146

Everest17

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 3,233

Harvard was probably the most likely underdog. I didn't actually think Ohio St. would lose, but I didn't think they'd cover.

Quote

03-21-2014 , 09:53 AM

#147

-sham-

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,751

they just reported 83% of the brackets were eliminated on day 1... which means 17% survived! holy hell.

Quote

03-21-2014 , 12:19 PM

#148

samooth

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,350

did an underdog win or smth?

they did a great job marketing it as a 1B price, when it's in fact only 500M.

Last edited by samooth; 03-21-2014 at 12:27 PM.

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03-21-2014 , 12:26 PM

#149

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by -sham-

they just reported 83% of the brackets were eliminated on day 1... which means 17% survived! holy hell.

where was this reported? are you sure it wasn't 0.17%?

Quote

03-21-2014 , 05:34 PM

#150

The Detonator

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,017

Pretty sure it was 83% knocked out after first game

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