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Old 01-22-2014, 10:34 PM   #1
David Sklansky
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If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

keep in mind that a winning ticket with all favorites will be split tens of thousands of ways. If you throw in a few underdogs your EV should go way up. As long as you don't go overboard. The general principle is this: If you are considering picking an underdog that has about an x percent of winning you should also estimate what percentage of fans will also choose them. Call that percentage y. Confine your underdog picks to those that have the largest value of x/y. In other words better to throw in a 25% shot picked by 5% than a 30% shot picked by 15%.

On the other hand you should NOT take this so far that your ticket is unlikely to be split at all. That actually decreases your EV. Not to mention that 100 million or so ain't bad.
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:42 PM   #2
The_doug
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

its harder to pick the powerball numbers probably
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:42 PM   #3
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

I wonder what one would have to value their time at to make reading (and learning from) this post +EV .

edit: not to say I didn't find the concept interesting
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:42 PM   #4
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

whats more interesting to me is if someone has it perfect up to the elite 8, would they be able to sell pieces?
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:50 PM   #5
PushForward8
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

thanks D
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:51 PM   #6
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by The_doug View Post
its harder to pick the powerball numbers probably
1 in 9.2 quintillion is something like 50 billion times tougher than the powerball jackpot
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:55 PM   #7
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

If you make it to the championship game, how much do you let him buy out for before tip-off?
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:56 PM   #8
MicroRoller
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

Have you ever been in a public place and moved to a spot where someone else was standing and another person standing in that area isn't paying attention and continues a conversation they were having with the person that left without realizing they're not there any more?

That's what I felt like when I read the OP.
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Old 01-22-2014, 10:59 PM   #9
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

The chance of winning is essentially 0. It's not worth the time to fill out the form. Lame marketing gimic that might work a lot better than it should.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:01 PM   #10
Jamerc81
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

Why is this in this forum?
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:09 PM   #11
David Sklansky
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
1 in 9.2 quintillion is something like 50 billion times tougher than the powerball jackpot
All favorites is about a billion to one.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:12 PM   #12
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

way to think inside the box, dave.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:17 PM   #13
why_all_the_hate
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

what the hell is going on here
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:25 PM   #14
dufusbrain
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Originally Posted by cicakman View Post
whats more interesting to me is if someone has it perfect up to the elite 8, would they be able to sell pieces?
If you were still alive after 24 games (elite 8), your equity in the $500million NPV prize would be ~$15,000. You may commence hedging.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:28 PM   #15
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by David Sklansky View Post
All favorites is about a billion to one.
is there data on what the average favorite price is? or is billion to one a guess?

9 quadrillion is obv fish math
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:28 PM   #16
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

Could someone give a rundown of what this is - I assume like a sportsbetting freeroll?
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:29 PM   #17
David Sklansky
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post
way to think inside the box, dave.
Promise to spread about 50 million around and you might get it down to about one in ten. Is that better?
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:34 PM   #18
BiiiiigChips
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by dufusbrain View Post
If you were still alive after 24 games (elite 8), your equity in the $500million NPV prize would be ~$15,000. You may commence hedging.
24 games doesn't even get you through the playin games and round of 64. To have a perfect bracket going into the elite 8 you will have to be 60 for 60 up to that point.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:34 PM   #19
David Sklansky
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by g-p View Post
is there data on what the average favorite price is? or is billion to one a guess?

9 quadrillion is obv fish math
A sixty five game parlay at about 72% each game is in the ballpark.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:35 PM   #20
J_HasTheNuts
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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Originally Posted by RonMexico View Post
If you make it to the championship game, how much do you let him buy out for before tip-off?
Probably not the best idea to play chicken with Warren Buffet, to whom $1b is roughly a buy-in. Let him set the price and then snap him off.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:37 PM   #21
Thousand Tigers
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

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what the hell is going on here
Some sort of all you can eat buffet discussion and EV calculations.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:42 PM   #22
A MTT PRO
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

1. Create a computer program that comes up with every possible combination based on the teams.
2. Find out his e-mail address
3. Email him the file or files containing every possible bracket
(You now have e-mail proof that you submitted a winning bracket to him)
4. When he refuses to pay, sue him for 1 billion plus damages
5. Settle out of court for 1 million

(If someone actually uses this idea please paypal me at least 50k, thanks)
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:49 PM   #23
cicakman
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

Quote:
Originally Posted by A MTT PRO View Post
1. Create a computer program that comes up with every possible combination based on the teams.
2. Find out his e-mail address
3. Email him the file or files containing every possible bracket
(You now have e-mail proof that you submitted a winning bracket to him)
4. When he refuses to pay, sue him for 1 billion plus damages
5. Settle out of court for 1 million

(If someone actually uses this idea please paypal me at least 50k, thanks)
Only accepting 10m total entries.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:49 PM   #24
BluffMyNuts
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Re: If You Try To Win Buffet's Billion

Quote:
Originally Posted by A MTT PRO View Post
1. Create a computer program that comes up with every possible combination based on the teams.
2. Find out his e-mail address
3. Email him the file or files containing every possible bracket
(You now have e-mail proof that you submitted a winning bracket to him)
4. When he refuses to pay, sue him for 1 billion plus damages
5. Settle out of court for 1 million

(If someone actually uses this idea please paypal me at least 50k, thanks)
Or read the rules, max brackets is set at 10 million.

Last edited by BluffMyNuts; 01-22-2014 at 11:50 PM. Reason: I got a slow pony.
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Old 01-22-2014, 11:54 PM   #25
dufusbrain
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Originally Posted by BiiiiigChips View Post
24 games doesn't even get you through the playin games and round of 64. To have a perfect bracket going into the elite 8 you will have to be 60 for 60 up to that point.
Oops, duh. That $15k equity was for sweet 16 (48 games ( 32 +16 =48). Elite 8 would be 56 games, equity maybe $3,900,000.
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