Hello all -

Last year, I posted bets on nearly NBA game from January through April. I bet on nearly every total (or, at least 60% of the games), and won at like a 56-58% clip. This was strictly betting 5-dimes with absolutely no line-shopping. If you are savvy at all, you'll do even better. It started to struggle around/after the trade deadline due to teams changing. In the interest of full disclosure, I weighted my picks, and my picks with greater weights did worse than my lower-weight picks.

I've updated my model, to hopefully better account for this. For now, I'll only be betting single units. All lines are what covers.com says the 5dimes line is at the time of the posting.

Today, I have:

ORL/NYK u193
CHI/MEM o177.5
MIL/PHI u186.5
HOU/WAS u190.5
CLE/CHA u194
POR/NOR o181.5
NJN/LAC o194
TOR/ATL u177.5
OKC/BOX u186
SAC/MIN o196.5
DAL/LAL u183

Good luck all,

hd

Also, I will be using this thread to track my bet on sides. So far, I'm not betting these. I've been tracking them, and they appear to be winning, but over a small sample size. I'll keep track of the record, but the units won or lost will be 0 until further notice:

ORL pick
CHI -4
PHI -8.5
WAS +5
CLE +2
POR -5.5
NJN 9
ATL -10
BOS +2.5
MIN -7
LAL -4

good luck all,
hd

Can you provide a link to the thread please?

they were posted in this thread...

looks like a tad under what he's saying now, though i'm pretty sure the units being down almost 20 is more important, no?

might wanna consider just flat-betting everything.

That's what I tell myself every f'kin downswing

But nahhhh - bring on the swongs ... You never really know urself until you hate urself

Definitely (to considering flat-betting).
Definitely (to the unit total being more important than the win% total)

However, I will say that the units posted is somewhat silly since it was all just assuming 10c juice, when nobody following me would actually be dumb enough to pay 10c juice. I just was trying to show that:

1) I could beat widely available lines while betting nearly every game
2) I could beat widely available lines while paying full juice.
3) Leave it up to the reader to decide how much they wanted to win (i.e. how much line shopping they wanted to perform).

IIRC, the bets were spread over two different threads (because the NBA mega-thread was actually two different threads). But...I may be wrong.

In reality, I should not have included anything from last year, because I'm not about to proclaim that past performance (either positive or negative) is indicative of future results. If anybody wants to pick apart what I did last year, I'm fine with it, and I won't defend it.

Good luck all,
hd

22 +EV plays in one day on a major american sport...this cant possibly go wrong.

Actually, it could possibly go wrong.

I make no claim to the sides. Last year, when I tried them briefly, they were horrible. I plainly stated that I'm not betting them, just tracking them.


Good luck all,
hd

So, like, you don't know which it was? Or sometimes it was like 56 and other times it was like 58?

Embarresedface.jpg, cringe worthy posting from me there, but like they say you never learn unless you make mistakes..

.

No, and like I said, it (last year) doesn't matter. If you want to delete any reference to 'last year' from my OP, I'm fine with it (I would, but the site's software doesn't allow me to). I modeled/tracked games from opening day until April. I don't know exactly what period of that time I was posting on here. The bets I posted here were spread across multiple threads, in NBA megathreads.

Good luck all,
hd

For the Day:
5-6 Totals
5-6 Sides

YTD:
5-6 Totals
5-6 Sides

Good luck all,
hd

Is there a reason this needed to be in its own thread and couldn't have gone in one of the two NBA pick threads that are on the front page?

(Disclaimer: I have chosen to have my settings display 25 threads per page)

On the first page, I see 6 threads that look to me (from the title) to be a person's picks. I see 3 threads that look to me (from the title) to be (currently active) season-long betting threads for a specific sport. So, I thought the right thing to do was to start my own thread.

Also, last year, I received a number (not an overwhelming number, mind you) of questions about my method and model. That type of discussion, it seems to me, should not be in a sport-specific betting thread. I feel like it fits better in a person's own thread. If (and I'm certainly not hoping for this) a conversation that takes 10-50 posts about my model arises, then that would derail a sport-specific thread, whereas it would be right at home in my own thread.

I hope these two reasons answer your question.

Good luck all,
hd