Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez
Could you expand on that please.MY idea was for instance if i check the outcomes of home asian main handicap and away asian main handicap for a specific league and the payout is 97-98%(Pinny comission) the odds are efficient is this a plausible strategy for you?
Imagine you had 10,000 data points of games as you describe, assume in all cases the market thinks its 50/50 for the team to cover the spread, and two scenarios:
1) all 10,000 events are truly 50/50
2) 5,000 are actually 75/25 and 5,000 events are actually 25/75.
In both of these scenarios, the market get its "right" in as much as it predicts 50% winners and we get 50% winners, and the test you are describing will view those as identical in terms of efficiency, but clearly that is wrong.