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Old 08-05-2017, 07:04 PM   #1
MisterRodriguez
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How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

This question might sound basic or pointless for some of you but wich method do you suggest to test the closing odds efficiency for a specific league?
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Old 08-06-2017, 07:25 AM   #2
Mihkel05
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

You can't in isolation.
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Old 08-06-2017, 06:46 PM   #3
MisterRodriguez
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

Could you expand on that please.MY idea was for instance if i check the outcomes of home asian main handicap and away asian main handicap for a specific league and the payout is 97-98%(Pinny comission) the odds are efficient is this a plausible strategy for you?
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:01 AM   #4
Mihkel05
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

No to both.
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Old 08-07-2017, 10:48 AM   #5
MisterRodriguez
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

So how would you go about it Mikhel,by dividing your results from the past seasons against the closing line in subsets(how much you beat/lost against the closer)and see if there is a correlation wiht ROI?

Last edited by MisterRodriguez; 08-07-2017 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:06 PM   #6
Sabaneta
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

What are you trying to figure out?
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Old 08-07-2017, 06:28 PM   #7
CallMeIshmael
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
Could you expand on that please.MY idea was for instance if i check the outcomes of home asian main handicap and away asian main handicap for a specific league and the payout is 97-98%(Pinny comission) the odds are efficient is this a plausible strategy for you?


Imagine you had 10,000 data points of games as you describe, assume in all cases the market thinks its 50/50 for the team to cover the spread, and two scenarios:

1) all 10,000 events are truly 50/50
2) 5,000 are actually 75/25 and 5,000 events are actually 25/75.

In both of these scenarios, the market get its "right" in as much as it predicts 50% winners and we get 50% winners, and the test you are describing will view those as identical in terms of efficiency, but clearly that is wrong.
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Old 08-07-2017, 07:09 PM   #8
MisterRodriguez
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Re: How to test if the closing line is efficcient for a specific league

Sabaneta i bet on Portugal soccer 1st division(and also a ton of valuebets a day):I usually bet the openers ,however this season i feel i can upgrade my limits and find and edge near game time,and was tryng to evaluate the closing odds eficiency in this league(max bet10-50 k game time).Ty
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