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Old 04-23-2017, 08:58 AM   #10951
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Now pdiggz i am no Copernicus i am more of an English major spelling champ type but you missed a few races unless those were otb and that can not be right? Been doing that a little myself of late finding myself behind in the count and protecting the plate. 7/130 past weekend in that weird set up i mention few post back and think 6/104 this weekends tournament. Never saw a race kid stopped in and took me to a farmers market and being a vegan and never finding this damn place shows how thick i am no doubt but hooked up with some Jar Head salsa and chips and i never eat anything different that was insane good if anyone's interested and 10% proceeds to VFW per ex Marine owner OORAH!

daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.

Wasn't that Illinois Derby somethin Toughest under 2 week wait next to BC time for me
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Old 04-23-2017, 09:53 AM   #10952
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.


Maybe u can clear something up for me.

I understand most of the viewers here are USA based, and exchangeless.

During the Masters, I looked at this forum, and there were a lot of things wanted, that were arbable with exchanges.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56...index1084.html

Never having been part of this scene, when I offered to lay bits and prices, I got into an exchange with someone, and was briefly called a 'maybe' scammer. This hurt .. but, it may be, I mis-understood the thread .. its pages and pages, and I didnt read much of it .. thinking, it was people who wanted .. for example .. Rose at 5/1, when he was 6.8 on an exchange.

As I pay premium charge .. churn .. is good for my account, so, offered to lay etc, and post escrow .. which, .. I must admit, I was amazed to be called a scammer for.

Anyway .. if anyone knows, what it the purpose of that thread, can u plse either post or DM me ..Thx.

Daonna .. nice 1st winner ..
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Old 04-23-2017, 10:04 AM   #10953
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by daonna View Post

think Forgotten Rules is being underestimated in the Vintage Crop at Navan today. I layed the horse first up figuring he'd need the run as per Fascinating Rock last season, but think he improves lengths today as F.Rock did last year.
It was entered in the Prix Denesy at Saint Cloud on Saturday .. dont know how it ran.
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Old 04-23-2017, 12:57 PM   #10954
pdiggz
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Honcho those were my last wps type bets not counting doubles P3 etc. 1 win in 23 with 18 2nd/3rds. Been a comical run. Mostly wp so I've recovered some with all the 2nds but still a lot of Murphy s law
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Old 04-23-2017, 03:03 PM   #10955
pdiggz
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

LoneStar double

R1: 5
R2: 3-5-8

If 5 loses in R1 you might see him at one of your kids friends birthdays this summer. In R2 I'm fading the #1 because of the distance of the race and adding in 5 because of it.

gl today. Lot of good sports action going on
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Old 04-23-2017, 04:02 PM   #10956
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

SA scratched Thursday. Guess nobody is in the mood to claim 6k horses for 25.
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Old 04-23-2017, 04:09 PM   #10957
pdiggz
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

lol #1 takes it. Fade me all day at the windows
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Old 04-23-2017, 04:15 PM   #10958
pdiggz
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by prickly00 View Post
SA scratched Thursday. Guess nobody is in the mood to claim 6k horses for 25.
oof
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Old 04-23-2017, 10:45 PM   #10959
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.
When B.Fair was given the green light in NJ I was (maybe naively) optimistic that US horse bettors would embrace exchange betting but I didn't know BF are charging a commission of 15%. If so they aren't helping its growth at all. It's hard to find any info on the current state of BF.NJ. A few articles from Ap/May last year but not much since. There's a culture barrier preventing exchange betting becoming popular in the US for the recreational (besides the politics and track monopolies) but any professional bettor can see the benefits.
It might take a Phil Galfond type of entrepreneur to start something more player friendly and take it out of the hands of corporations like Paddy Power. There's a Bitcoin exchange sporstbook (that I believe also struggles with liquidity) but nothing for racing that doesn't require the use of proxy servers afaik.

dundalk that thread seems like a handy way to publicly record bets between acquaintances.
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Old 04-24-2017, 03:43 AM   #10960
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I never feel sorry for bf anymore, but can see the US exchange
has many uphill battles.

The Comm rate, makes sense, if u compare to local pool
deductions. The exchange bettor should still b better off.

In running liquidity on the racing is v slowly growing.

There are 4 cricket games scheduled for Aug, near one
of them, and I might come to trade/look etc.
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Old 04-24-2017, 10:07 PM   #10961
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Papa Mandela gonna get an Oaks with P-Woods? Dang she crushed last out.
Any update on the withholding reform going into effect thought around this time was supposed to be in effect?
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Old Yesterday, 09:58 AM   #10962
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Punchestown (IRE) 16:20
Labaik
need: 2.17 (46%)
available: 4.30 (BF exchange @ 13:40 UTC), (11/4, 3.75, +275 generally)
stake: 7.4% (Kelly * 0.25)

The value is there due to Labaik's history of RR's (refusals). He has 5 of them. The price collapses if he starts cleanly. I'm taking the risk at this price.

I was set to back Art Of Security in the Killashee today (16:55) but Noel Meade in his wisdom runs him over a longer trip later in the week. There are only 11 runners in this year's Killashee. Weird considering 20+ is the norm (average 22.6 over 14 years)
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Old Yesterday, 05:48 PM   #10963
blah45
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
Go with all you mentioned and take advantage of perks each has i know NYRA has decent ones but if your looking for another book as you mentioned BetAmerica is solid with a $400 sign up bonus that releases at 10% so bet $2 get immediately after race refunded .20 in account etc. Play tourneys vig free till bonus earned also lots of $20+2. Hope it helps and BOL blah.

Also with BA before i forget again you add max $400 to get max bonus offer and once your initial deposit clears you can go south with it and still have the bonus tail for a year to earn it.
Thanks for the advice. I signed up with xpressbet. Multiview interface is pretty easy to use and have had a few winning bets already. Looking forward to the triple crown.
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Old Yesterday, 07:20 PM   #10964
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Punchestown (IRE) 16:20
Labaik
need: 2.17 (46%)
available: 4.30 (BF exchange @ 13:40 UTC), (11/4, 3.75, +275 generally)
stake: 7.4% (Kelly * 0.25)

The value is there due to Labaik's history of RR's (refusals). He has 5 of them. The price collapses if he starts cleanly. I'm taking the risk at this price.


Sorry, I never saw this, as I would have disuaded you.

It jumped off at Cheltenham (Uk), as the starter uses a different whip type, to encourage horses to start. For me, it will never start in Ireland, and needs to be sold to a Uk based stable.

Its really hard to tip horses, and its easy after, to find holes. Total respect for all tipsters in the thread .. win or lose, its a thankless pursuit.
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Old Today, 08:15 AM   #10965
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Good info dundalk, cheers. I'd heard from an unreliable source that they'd figured a certain piece of tack they were using prior to Cheltenham was causing the issues but your theory looks more likely after yesterday. I went with the available odds v mine knowing the risks and tbh I probably would've stuck with the bet even had you posted the whip info.
Yeah tipping horses can be rough. You think you have a profitable angle and decide to share, and that's about when things turn for the worse. The ones I'm putting here as overlays are all circa 50% chances in my own markets. They should generally start shorter than the openers at least so there could be trading opportunities (although today Robinhannon has drifted half a point since I last checked). They come from a method that has been profitable in the past, but markets adjust and who knows how they perform going forward. Strike rate should still be decent, but whether it stays ahead of SP is problematical. There are two today.

Perth 15:05.
Robbinhannon
need: 1.92 (52%).
available: 4.00 (BF exchange @09:40 UTC)
stake: 9% (Kelly *0.25)

Perth 17:10
Great Fighter
need: 1.96 (51%).
available: 3.25 (BF exchange @09:40 UTC)
stake: 6.66% (Kelly * 0.25)

(Robbinhannon now 4.50 @12:00 UTC)
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