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Old 04-23-2017, 08:58 AM   #10951
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Now pdiggz i am no Copernicus i am more of an English major spelling champ type but you missed a few races unless those were otb and that can not be right? Been doing that a little myself of late finding myself behind in the count and protecting the plate. 7/130 past weekend in that weird set up i mention few post back and think 6/104 this weekends tournament. Never saw a race kid stopped in and took me to a farmers market and being a vegan and never finding this damn place shows how thick i am no doubt but hooked up with some Jar Head salsa and chips and i never eat anything different that was insane good if anyone's interested and 10% proceeds to VFW per ex Marine owner OORAH!

daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.

Wasn't that Illinois Derby somethin Toughest under 2 week wait next to BC time for me
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Old 04-23-2017, 09:53 AM   #10952
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.


Maybe u can clear something up for me.

I understand most of the viewers here are USA based, and exchangeless.

During the Masters, I looked at this forum, and there were a lot of things wanted, that were arbable with exchanges.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56...index1084.html

Never having been part of this scene, when I offered to lay bits and prices, I got into an exchange with someone, and was briefly called a 'maybe' scammer. This hurt .. but, it may be, I mis-understood the thread .. its pages and pages, and I didnt read much of it .. thinking, it was people who wanted .. for example .. Rose at 5/1, when he was 6.8 on an exchange.

As I pay premium charge .. churn .. is good for my account, so, offered to lay etc, and post escrow .. which, .. I must admit, I was amazed to be called a scammer for.

Anyway .. if anyone knows, what it the purpose of that thread, can u plse either post or DM me ..Thx.

Daonna .. nice 1st winner ..
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Old 04-23-2017, 10:04 AM   #10953
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by daonna View Post

think Forgotten Rules is being underestimated in the Vintage Crop at Navan today. I layed the horse first up figuring he'd need the run as per Fascinating Rock last season, but think he improves lengths today as F.Rock did last year.
It was entered in the Prix Denesy at Saint Cloud on Saturday .. dont know how it ran.
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Old 04-23-2017, 12:57 PM   #10954
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Honcho those were my last wps type bets not counting doubles P3 etc. 1 win in 23 with 18 2nd/3rds. Been a comical run. Mostly wp so I've recovered some with all the 2nds but still a lot of Murphy s law
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Old 04-23-2017, 03:03 PM   #10955
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

LoneStar double

R1: 5
R2: 3-5-8

If 5 loses in R1 you might see him at one of your kids friends birthdays this summer. In R2 I'm fading the #1 because of the distance of the race and adding in 5 because of it.

gl today. Lot of good sports action going on
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Old 04-23-2017, 04:02 PM   #10956
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

SA scratched Thursday. Guess nobody is in the mood to claim 6k horses for 25.
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Old 04-23-2017, 04:09 PM   #10957
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

lol #1 takes it. Fade me all day at the windows
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Old 04-23-2017, 04:15 PM   #10958
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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SA scratched Thursday. Guess nobody is in the mood to claim 6k horses for 25.
oof
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Old 04-23-2017, 10:45 PM   #10959
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.
When B.Fair was given the green light in NJ I was (maybe naively) optimistic that US horse bettors would embrace exchange betting but I didn't know BF are charging a commission of 15%. If so they aren't helping its growth at all. It's hard to find any info on the current state of BF.NJ. A few articles from Ap/May last year but not much since. There's a culture barrier preventing exchange betting becoming popular in the US for the recreational (besides the politics and track monopolies) but any professional bettor can see the benefits.
It might take a Phil Galfond type of entrepreneur to start something more player friendly and take it out of the hands of corporations like Paddy Power. There's a Bitcoin exchange sporstbook (that I believe also struggles with liquidity) but nothing for racing that doesn't require the use of proxy servers afaik.

dundalk that thread seems like a handy way to publicly record bets between acquaintances.
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Old 04-24-2017, 03:43 AM   #10960
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I never feel sorry for bf anymore, but can see the US exchange
has many uphill battles.

The Comm rate, makes sense, if u compare to local pool
deductions. The exchange bettor should still b better off.

In running liquidity on the racing is v slowly growing.

There are 4 cricket games scheduled for Aug, near one
of them, and I might come to trade/look etc.
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Old 04-24-2017, 10:07 PM   #10961
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Papa Mandela gonna get an Oaks with P-Woods? Dang she crushed last out.
Any update on the withholding reform going into effect thought around this time was supposed to be in effect?
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Old 04-25-2017, 09:58 AM   #10962
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Punchestown (IRE) 16:20
Labaik
need: 2.17 (46%)
available: 4.30 (BF exchange @ 13:40 UTC), (11/4, 3.75, +275 generally)
stake: 7.4% (Kelly * 0.25)

The value is there due to Labaik's history of RR's (refusals). He has 5 of them. The price collapses if he starts cleanly. I'm taking the risk at this price.

I was set to back Art Of Security in the Killashee today (16:55) but Noel Meade in his wisdom runs him over a longer trip later in the week. There are only 11 runners in this year's Killashee. Weird considering 20+ is the norm (average 22.6 over 14 years)
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Old 04-25-2017, 05:48 PM   #10963
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
Go with all you mentioned and take advantage of perks each has i know NYRA has decent ones but if your looking for another book as you mentioned BetAmerica is solid with a $400 sign up bonus that releases at 10% so bet $2 get immediately after race refunded .20 in account etc. Play tourneys vig free till bonus earned also lots of $20+2. Hope it helps and BOL blah.

Also with BA before i forget again you add max $400 to get max bonus offer and once your initial deposit clears you can go south with it and still have the bonus tail for a year to earn it.
Thanks for the advice. I signed up with xpressbet. Multiview interface is pretty easy to use and have had a few winning bets already. Looking forward to the triple crown.
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Old 04-25-2017, 07:20 PM   #10964
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Punchestown (IRE) 16:20
Labaik
need: 2.17 (46%)
available: 4.30 (BF exchange @ 13:40 UTC), (11/4, 3.75, +275 generally)
stake: 7.4% (Kelly * 0.25)

The value is there due to Labaik's history of RR's (refusals). He has 5 of them. The price collapses if he starts cleanly. I'm taking the risk at this price.


Sorry, I never saw this, as I would have disuaded you.

It jumped off at Cheltenham (Uk), as the starter uses a different whip type, to encourage horses to start. For me, it will never start in Ireland, and needs to be sold to a Uk based stable.

Its really hard to tip horses, and its easy after, to find holes. Total respect for all tipsters in the thread .. win or lose, its a thankless pursuit.
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Old 04-26-2017, 08:15 AM   #10965
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Good info dundalk, cheers. I'd heard from an unreliable source that they'd figured a certain piece of tack they were using prior to Cheltenham was causing the issues but your theory looks more likely after yesterday. I went with the available odds v mine knowing the risks and tbh I probably would've stuck with the bet even had you posted the whip info.
Yeah tipping horses can be rough. You think you have a profitable angle and decide to share, and that's about when things turn for the worse. The ones I'm putting here as overlays are all circa 50% chances in my own markets. They should generally start shorter than the openers at least so there could be trading opportunities (although today Robinhannon has drifted half a point since I last checked). They come from a method that has been profitable in the past, but markets adjust and who knows how they perform going forward. Strike rate should still be decent, but whether it stays ahead of SP is problematical. There are two today.

Perth 15:05.
Robbinhannon
need: 1.92 (52%).
available: 4.00 (BF exchange @09:40 UTC)
stake: 9% (Kelly *0.25)

Perth 17:10
Great Fighter
need: 1.96 (51%).
available: 3.25 (BF exchange @09:40 UTC)
stake: 6.66% (Kelly * 0.25)

(Robbinhannon now 4.50 @12:00 UTC)
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Old 04-26-2017, 03:40 PM   #10966
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Punchestown 18:40
Great Field
need: 1.61 (62%)
available: 2.28 (BF exchange @19:10 UTC) (2.25, 5/4 available various books)
stake: 7.9% (Kelly *0.25)

Wednesday's 2 shortened (3/1 into SP 11/4, & 2/1 into SP 11/8). Robbinhannon traded @1.25 in the run, finished 2nd, ground possibly too firm, Great Fighter won.


I've been waiting for Art Of Security in a Handicap. Runs tomorrow (18:05 Punchestown). Early odds 33/1, (42.00 BF for a few quid).
I don't know about the horse over 3 miles. Never really been a fan of High Chapparals over longer trips but occasionally he can throw one that can stay (Hadrian's Approach comes to mind). Noel Meade might have been swayed by AOS's half brother winning at Aintree a couple of weeks ago when stepped up, but Rather Be's by Oscar. Anyway I think AOS has the class to match it here, and I have to trust that Meade knows best whether he'll stay or not. 33/1 or better should be widely available. It's a speculative bet for sh.ts & giggles only in a 28 runner field (e/w 5 places)
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Old 04-27-2017, 12:48 AM   #10967
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

28 horse field lol. Most races this wk seem to be 5-7 or so. Every winner odds on
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Old 04-27-2017, 07:47 AM   #10968
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by blah45 View Post
Thanks for the advice. I signed up with xpressbet. Multiview interface is pretty easy to use and have had a few winning bets already. Looking forward to the triple crown.
Solid choice blah they have a nice Beat The Host contest first part of every year and the HD to most tracks there is nice.

Did not look anywhere yesterday and trying not to because it is time i go in my bubble till the Derby. I know what i know have have my own opinions and do not want to hear what the voices in somebody else's head is telling them I just have my ear to the ground on facts not opinion which can be its own adventure. I do not know why but if PJ draws #6 or#9 hole i think he wins and have no idea why that is in my head.

This also popped in my head and made itself known but us here are the crew known as "2 dollars lighter 2 minutes later" (see what i did there ).

Taking applications for Derby Wife for next week and ladies do not be shy or make me make impossible decisions and consider yourself all invited we will work out a rotation

Got the fever fellas
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Old 04-27-2017, 01:20 PM   #10969
blah45
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Is there a place to get free past performance information?
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Old 04-27-2017, 03:10 PM   #10970
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Not that I know. If it's just the KY derby your interested in check twitter. Twin Spires put up a free Bros for the Oaks and Derby on their feed. Otherwise go to DRF brisnet timeform and choose what suits you. They can be bought or earned free through betting sites.
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Old Yesterday, 03:47 AM   #10971
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by pdiggz View Post
28 horse field lol. Most races this wk seem to be 5-7 or so. Every winner odds on
I'll refrain from posting self indulgent rubbish on this thread from here on. It helps nowt. I'll mention a couple things now to tie it up but from here on I'll endeavour to keep to the objective overlays.
AOS was never going to win that race. He's a 2 miler and will be well handicapped over that trip.
Keep an eye on Shaun Harris runners on a "back-to-lay" basis and vice versa. What he did with Fujin yesterday. His 2 last Saturday.

Looking forward to some good insight on the run to the roses.
Hoping Death Duty wins today but that's the last hint of subjective tipping from thee
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Old Today, 01:22 AM   #10972
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

What a great KY Derby this is!
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