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Old 04-16-2017, 06:31 PM   #10926
aphbig1371
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Good call on Dickenson JK. I took a shot w/CAG. How about that Lexington? Though that was a nice move by the winner.
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Old 04-17-2017, 04:09 AM   #10927
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

[/QUOTE]Shaun Harris has 2 runners at Southwell tomorrow.
During the trainer's 2 year lean spell (post 10909 ) Fujin (Southwell 15:55) was keeping the wolves from the door, winning races despite the yard's form. The horse has risen 30lb in the Handicap in 18 months and tomorrow tries for 3 in a row. He's in a race no stronger than his win LTO and has handled the Fibresand in the past. I can't see any reason why he won't run well here. He front runs and will likely trade shorter than his SP in the run.
There isn't a lot to say about Mesmeric Moment (Southwell 16:30). She's a 3yo having her 5th start for the yard, the last 3 at Southwell, and on the face of it she should be 100/1. She isn't even helped by the draw (5), as the inside Stalls have been killing it here over 5f even in small fields. If there are any positives she does have the favourite drawn outside her in 6, and she has shown early pace in her 3 runs here. She also has a senior jockey on for the first time since Harris has had her. There should be a high price available pre race, so it'll be a cheap "back to lay" in the run. I'm backing the yard's runners blind the next few weeks, but follow this one at your own risk.[/QUOTE]

Fujin drifted like a barge, in a race, they backed everything else, and it was a complete non-buzzer. Maybe next time.

Mesmeric Moment was fairly well backed .. 25 into 14 .. but, was outpaced, and never got in it.

It was a miserable day, with light rain. As a bookie, took 570 bets, (which was far more than expected) .. 16 bookies in the ring, 2 on the rails. Held £3400, to win £338 gross. Badge fee was £128, joint fee, £30, petrol £40, wages £100, .. making net win, £40, for about 10 hrs work.

Lost in-running.

The bookmaking industry in the Uk is in serious decline. When the Gambling Commission took over, maybe 10 yrs ago, there were 1500 on-course bookies. With all the regulation etc, the number of bookies left, is 360, the majority of which, are middle-old age. There is little fresh blood coming thru, for lotsa reasons.

Last edited by dundalk; 04-17-2017 at 04:10 AM. Reason: quote
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Old 04-17-2017, 04:21 PM   #10928
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Has the Kentucky Derby pace scenario, fractions trended differently since the points system? Are fractions slower? Does the points system keep cheap speed out of the race making it difficult for closers and bias tactical runners?
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Old 04-18-2017, 06:25 AM   #10929
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

dundalk enjoyed your TR and know i would not sleep for a fortnight learning all that i have been missing out on on this side of the shark bowl.

prickly your question is above my pay grade i am certain

Whats left fellas? Who wins? Who would be the big name in this field that drops out Derby week per usual. Does anyone hit the gate better than 7/2? Why do they say first time gelding? Shouldn't it being racing for the 1st time gelded? Don't get a 2nd right? Why do they announce a horse is a ridgling? It seems no consequence in decision making and always noted by the track announcer with such exuberance. Just things on a Tuesday i think about
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Old 04-18-2017, 06:50 PM   #10930
blah45
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Thoughts on best online racebook for the triple crown and throughout the year? I am skeptical to go outside of tvg/xpressbet/twinspires because of the social security number being given. Do the books use track odds or skewed odds to give them a edge? Should I just sign up for nys otb (I'm a resident of New York) ?
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Old 04-18-2017, 07:04 PM   #10931
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by blah45 View Post
Thoughts on best online racebook for the triple crown and throughout the year? I am skeptical to go outside of tvg/xpressbet/twinspires because of the social security number being given. Do the books use track odds or skewed odds to give them a edge? Should I just sign up for nys otb (I'm a resident of New York) ?
Go with all you mentioned and take advantage of perks each has i know NYRA has decent ones but if your looking for another book as you mentioned BetAmerica is solid with a $400 sign up bonus that releases at 10% so bet $2 get immediately after race refunded .20 in account etc. Play tourneys vig free till bonus earned also lots of $20+2. Hope it helps and BOL blah.

Also with BA before i forget again you add max $400 to get max bonus offer and once your initial deposit clears you can go south with it and still have the bonus tail for a year to earn it.
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Old 04-18-2017, 09:04 PM   #10932
aphbig1371
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Honcho View Post
dundalk enjoyed your TR and know i would not sleep for a fortnight learning all that i have been missing out on on this side of the shark bowl.

prickly your question is above my pay grade i am certain

Whats left fellas? Who wins? Who would be the big name in this field that drops out Derby week per usual. Does anyone hit the gate better than 7/2? Why do they say first time gelding? Shouldn't it being racing for the 1st time gelded? Don't get a 2nd right? Why do they announce a horse is a ridgling? It seems no consequence in decision making and always noted by the track announcer with such exuberance. Just things on a Tuesday i think about
Cant get that 2nd time gelding idea out of my head. Glad too see you are good Honcho. I've liked Irish War Cry for a while now. Love the breeding, and believe Motion will have him ready. Definitely have big reservations after that FOY. Also, some reservations about the BSFs that came out of the track that day. Has anyone looked at these? Pletcher, FL Derby; usually equates to a short price toss; but this one definitely scares me. CE may very well end up being the best of this group; however, he might need to be great to parlay that last effort, the way he came into it. No Derby for CMM; I loved that performance. Is New Mexico the new West Coast. Definitely going to take a closer look at the SA top 3 along with Hence and Irap.
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Old 04-19-2017, 05:40 PM   #10933
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Not sure if anyone really cares, but, heres a pic of a local fibresand meeting, on a particularly cold and patron-less mid-week meeting.

http://imgur.com/gallery/qUGWf

Pitch fee £93, wages £100, Petrol £20, joint rental £20 .. total expenses £233,

As a bookie, took, 170 bets .. total take - £2100 .. profit £165 .. so, lost net £68.

Pointless working crap pitches, especially mid-week.
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Old 04-19-2017, 07:37 PM   #10934
Jkpoker10
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by prickly00 View Post
Has the Kentucky Derby pace scenario, fractions trended differently since the points system? Are fractions slower? Does the points system keep cheap speed out of the race making it difficult for closers and bias tactical runners?
I'd say the point system def keep me out speed horses that have no chance at getting 10 furlongs. I feel like in the past, sprinter type horses had a better chance to get in and that really can really help weaker horses win from off the pace.

However, whenever you have a field of 20 horses, some horses are going to duel and the pace is never going to be slow. I'd be shocked if the half mile went 38 seconds in a derby.

I feel like being a front runner in the derby is terrible. This is all personal opinion but I feel a pace pressed is best type in derby bc they can avoid most traffic trouble and can be first to get run on tiring leaders. Deep closers obv can be effective if pace is quick but trip trouble is risky.

I think we just had a run the last 3 years of great horses. Wouldn't say anyone is head and shoulders above everyone else.
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Old 04-19-2017, 09:57 PM   #10935
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Well a horse testing positive for cocaine fellas is a new one on me and the trainer may have a point to contamination if that is the defense he sticks with because even on my TV screen the damn horses nostril is huge. How many times do you think the lab tech said yes cocaine to the connections? I will go over 3 Caught me funny the read on DRF.

Doing well and donating APH hope the life flop is hitting you good also my friend.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:39 AM   #10936
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Was Buckcherry Lit Up playing in the barn when the sample was taken?
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Old 04-20-2017, 07:45 AM   #10937
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by prickly00 View Post
Was Buckcherry Lit Up playing in the barn when the sample was taken?
Had to of been right

"I don"t do cocaine,my horses don't go out and party,so why would cocaine show up in my horses?" Navarro said. "This is nuts."

Looks has nothing to do with it obv but Navarro looks like Pablo Escobar's nephew makes this all the more funny to me.

Going to play some H2H by eye at Keeneland today and will cap SA and throw up 3 to fade. Weather looks warm all week and weekend in SoCal so i expect shorter post parades.

CMM not going to KYD and man that had to be a mf'er of a decision and unlike how i felt about Songbird's connections (prior to minor injury before KYOaks) i do think it is right and by the effort the horse put out last you have to believe the trainer is spot on here imo.
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Old 04-20-2017, 10:07 AM   #10938
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Cheltenham (UK) 16:55
Boa Island
need: 5/2 (3.44, +244, 29%)
available: 7/1 (10.00 BF exchange @13:25 UTC)
stake: 5.25% (Kelly * 0.25)

Taunton (UK) 17:25
Listen To The Man
need: 3/5 (1.61, -164, 62%)
available: 9/10'(2.00 BF exchange @13:25 UTC)
stake: 5.20% (Kelly * 0.25

Caution with Boa Island. It has drifted from 4's early to 7-1 now, (and 10.00 on the exchange) which has made it the overlay it now is.

Edit: Boa Island NR just after I posted


Quote:
Originally Posted by dundalk View Post
Not sure if anyone really cares, but, heres a pic of a local fibresand meeting, on a particularly cold and patron-less mid-week meeting.

http://imgur.com/gallery/qUGWf

Pitch fee £93, wages £100, Petrol £20, joint rental £20 .. total expenses £233,

As a bookie, took, 170 bets .. total take - £2100 .. profit £165 .. so, lost net £68.

Pointless working crap pitches, especially mid-week.
I feel ya dundalk. I'm not a bookie but it's pretty much the same in my neck of the woods (Australia), and probably for the same reasons - Live TV coverage, online bookmakers, the exchange, as well as there being so many other options for the punter now.
I'm in my 50's so I remember the 100+ bookmakers at a Saturday meeting and the crowds of 20k. Even the Monday/Thursday night greyhounds had a packed ring. Now a midweek Flemington meeting resembles the pic you posted. Maybe 5 on-course layers. Books set at 140%+ until liquidity comes in on the exchange.
It's just not worth going to the track if you want to take a fixed price anymore.
I do fear more for the industry in the UK though. I don't know how UK trainers/owners survive on prizemoney alone and the need for trainers to land a touch probably doesn't help anything. At least in other jurisdictions decent prizemoney helps and professional stipes keep the game somewhat honest. The need for UK trainers/owners to land a touch probably doesn't help.
Racing will survive, but the landscape for the punter/bookmaker has changed forever

Last edited by daonna; 04-20-2017 at 10:14 AM. Reason: non-runner
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:51 PM   #10939
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Santa Anita 4/20/17

1.) 1-9-4
2.) 5-4-2
3.) 4-3-1
4.) 1-7-4
5.) 7-4-3
6.) 3-1-7
7.) 3-6-4
8.) 9-3-1

Tough card today at SA but we will try to string a few together and those are your 3 to fade
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Old 04-20-2017, 05:13 PM   #10940
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I travel a lot, and was stunned by the lack of bookies/punters, at an average meeting in Aus, maybe 5 yrs ago.

NZ has no bookies. I went to Ellerslie a mth ago, and it was v bare.

US has a tote, which rakes 20%, (+ rakes on winnings), but, seems fairly strong, numbers wise.

UK is an odd situation. The decent to good mettings, are v worthwhile for bookies, but, they are not cheap to exploit.

Tomorrow at Newbury (4 maidens .. yum), I will have 2 pitches. Each cost £50k+, for the 40 yr lease, and will maybe cost, £350 each, to run. Its reasonable to expect, over a season, they will return £15k.

Will post pics etc .. and, anything from the ring.
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Old 04-20-2017, 06:53 PM   #10941
prickly00
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Girvin just got taken down for herding in the LA derby. Who does speed figures for Louisiana, retired Olympic boxing judges?
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:30 AM   #10942
Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

9.6,9.6,9.6,8.4? WTF Damn Russian judge every time...We not impressed you juggle balls we juggle bears 8.4 generous Know your old when you can remember these days (wait i remembered it).

Looks like the hot days are the next 2 in SoCal but post should be regular getting back to mid 80's for the weekend. Glad i have been doing decent on Saturday's tournament wise because last 2 i have made back what i lost then some and need the same recipe this weekend. The Gaines horse cost me the PK4 yesterday. Her and Mullins horses always look the part on the track always turned out nice so sometimes i put less in my eye with these 2 trainers when looking for physicality indications but that horse def ran to eye.

BOL on everyone's plays itt this weekend we are just 2 weeks and a wake up from the KYD.
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Old 04-21-2017, 08:26 AM   #10943
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

2.00 Newbury

1st maiden of the day. Richard Hannons have been average so
Far.

No 2 Embour doesn't look anything special. Currently 5.2 in
A wide open event.
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Old 04-21-2017, 08:52 AM   #10944
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Don't like no 5 - Jim Rockford 1.55 Newbury

20/1 1 point lay
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:06 AM   #10945
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Beat Jim .. hannons came 3rd
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Old 04-21-2017, 09:33 PM   #10946
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

It got really busy at Newbury, and I just had no time to do much.

They have spent a lot of money here // and are building £400k+ apartments, facing the course.

This is a pic, 90 mins before racing .. crowd of prob 10k later.

https://imgur.com/gallery/PaNPc

Sat is the 2nd day, and sees an important 3yr old trial .. the Greenham stakes, over 7f.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...7-04-22/671790

Its for promising; 2 yr olds, and sees the re-appearance of some potentially v good horses.

I know Barney Roy is v decent. 4.5 or so, is a fair price, and I will have an interest.
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Old 04-22-2017, 10:02 AM   #10947
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Barney Roy being really well backed .. 3.75 now .. v v hopeful.
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Old 04-22-2017, 10:08 AM   #10948
dundalk
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Pleasing .. hope u all on
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Old 04-22-2017, 09:20 PM   #10949
pdiggz
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

my last 23 races:

1-13-5

lolololololol
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Old 04-23-2017, 08:23 AM   #10950
daonna
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by dundalk View Post
Pleasing .. hope u all on
Was on nice colt.
I think someone might've gotten their cap colours mixed up as I was able to lay both Barney Roy and Dream Catcher at 1.06 in the run after backing both pre race. Never was Dream Catcher a 1.06 chance was it?


2 overlays today.

Wincanton 14:20
San Satiro
need: 1.92 (52%)
available: 3.20 (BF exchange @12:10 UTC)
stake: 7.5%

Stratford 16:40
Deise Vu
need: 2.13 (47%)
available: 4.50 22% (BF exchange @12:10 UTC)
stake: 8%

think Forgotten Rules is being underestimated in the Vintage Crop at Navan today. I layed the horse first up figuring he'd need the run as per Fascinating Rock last season, but think he improves lengths today as F.Rock did last year.
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