Hey def not an ass with that comment. I agree with your comment to the price but I tend to play chalk too much.

Any thoughts on early potential derby horses. I feel I like McCracken and gunnerva. Seems like there will be a lot of pace this year so I like a horse coming from far back. Still a lot of racing and unknown left though. One liner looked amazing stretching out this past weekend for pletched. I played him for a small bet but always risky playing a horse stretching out from 6 furlongs to 8.5.

I haven't been following triple crown at all. AP ruined it for me

Vic has been a terrible add to Oaklawn this yr. I hate to bash guys but he is awful. He's called horses the winner that didnt win the race several times. Just now in that stakes race - "Weast Hill no excuses", yeah except that the #1 was left alone on the engine and walked the 1st half, but yeah otherwise no excuses. lol good one.

Sorry for dominating at Rillito Park, guys. Better luck next time

Is track bias from brisnet speed figs a great tool for handicapping. I've been using it lately and crushing by just playing w/p and w/p/s bets. I've been playing weekdays which seem more chalky than normal and using the track bias stats a little more in handicapping and much less speed figures. Obv using speed figs to see who fits in form but not always going highest speed figs especially at bad prices.

I typically use the drf to handicap but brisnet figs seem much better along with using the track bias info. Idk it's hard to tell how pacey horse are from the drf. The e, e/p, p, s calculations are much nicer for me and allow me to handicap quicker. Thoughts? I'm betting small and have taken 50-up to 150 which normally doesn't happen for me.

I've been trying to look more at pace lately of a race to determine if horses might duel etc rather than go by speed figs which I feel is a leak in my game. I'm not trying to make a lot of money playing horses over Long run but just wanna be able To hit a solid pick 4 once in a while.

Appreciate the concern considering my health challenges but we as right as the rain.

Lots on my chest and have not posted as i am working on my own thing. No sense making Mr S rich (er) with my crushing popularity

HBP not even the Golden Child can fix horse racing its so F'd the whole damn thing pretty much and the stupidity at its rapid regression is just humoring the piss out of me. For me it is like watching a group of people taking a triangle block and trying to force it through the round hole and when you show them the error in their methods they look at you as if you are incompetent so i do not beat that rug much anymore i just laugh and say 'Almost had it boys push harder".

About a year ago listening to Dale Romans (cant stand the guy,respect as a trainer) sitting with Robby,Zipske,and another DW head mentioning alllll of RA dirty laundry while drinking himself and him stating he really would like a challenge again in his life. Dale try a push-up...Just 1...That should keep you challenged oh I am guessing a life time. Your opinions on the visa situation is so ignorant to say the least and to me worse but leave it at that. Pay a fair wage do things the right way shovel chit yourself man.

I am in favor of immigration showvivor for the backside help. I mean after properly vetted you get a DRF form and have to choose 1 horse that day to at least show and your in,if not a lesson that should of been learned long ago life is not fair. What? Makes more sense than anything i have heard and at least they would be horse players.

I will add the links but as you can see it is the progression of a horse player. We just stand out of the crowd imo but i think it is just our confidence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qe7RH_j4mvM

Then we meet up in a time progression with our young horse player as an adult

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItXKGyO6cRA

Have a great weekend fellas and lets make a couple $$'s

This is probably obvious but blindly betting top figs will separate you from your money quickly. I think Beyer talks about this in his books which is determine how a fig was earned. A horse with an easy lead and slow splits runs a top fig but if the pace is faster more contentious they will run worse. He also talks about betting angles and betting bias and 1 of his big breakthroughs was noticing how frequently front runners won at 4 1/2f at Charles Town

Let's take care of some biz first off...You go to your TS account you see the KYDerby Dream Bet and you OPT IN...You then take a finski and throw it on El Areeb in the Gotham to Win...You do not win any money on 1-5 BUT now you are in the Final Round which goes off April 1 -15th...You remember Honcho tipped you to this while your sitting in front row of the Derby because you won the whole damn thing...You come back to the thread and thank me in July when your done partying

JK honestly and not trying to simplify but whatever works for you imo. To me and what i like most is how individual this sport is when capping because i have saw so many examples of the correct answer chosen by different pencils and ideas. I think the only solid maybe thing i would suggest in your PK4's etc is trust your capping in certain races you feel strongly about and start there no matter what leg of the sequence it is and work out or in as it may pertain to your exotic wager. I have shown examples of this with success itt several times and it is how i put them in as i say trust your capping. If it is apparent also in the start of a PK4,5 etc by eye i see a horse with the physicality profile by my eye i see as a stand out i single to start a lot of tickets as well if i see it.

Wind in Miami if memory serves it usually is a head and favors front speed from years past.

BOL fellas

No excuses for El Areeb there and i was wrong and another over hyped NY horse on the Derby Trail. I will say i did not like the rider and saw a similar ride earlier by him almost the same outside the horses norm BUT no excuses i was wrong today with EA.

fractions were honest there but he waved the white flag turning for home. ride was ok, didnt have much of problem with that honcho, he just had nothing when it counted. that being said #1 got the trip. these cold weather MD/NY types always tank. by the way never heard of the trainer before thats a bad sign

no money in horse racing everyones solid. jeez who is taking these 3 yr olds at 2/5 or 1/2 or even off 1 or 2 goddamn race(s)? fade all day. i know i touted the motion horse last time but that was at 4/1 - 9/2. jeez even money off 1 good race.

no offense to anyone in this thread but lay off the 1/2 shots in these TC prep races.

Agree after watching the replay of the Gotham. My choice was NOT to make $$ as i indicated there but for TS contest.

Which race you refering to at GP? I was on CB PJ there and thought the move was nice maybe a little early but the winner was winning regardless imo.

Any concern that UB had to have her ass smacked a couple times there today? She was tested and responded but i have less confidence than i did have before the race BUT did take advantage of the S pool like the rest of America.

el areeb was 2/5 and irish war cry in the fountain of youth at GP was even. gunnevera was loaded so no 1 else was winning but even on iwc, odds matter.

odd move by mike smith into the 1st turn, not sure about that. and yeah she felt the whip - but responded. who knows maybe just got lazy or she was bored.

some stellar stakes at SA between the 5 horse fields at the 1/10 shots. lol

Ugh had el Areeb for the ts promo lol. I agree they should get a solid jock on him and not some scrub lol. At least I had gunnavera in the foy. Thought pace would be quicker with takaful and more pressers compared to the holy bull. Gunnavera looked great. Like his derby chances if he keeps castellano as jock and gets a clean trip in the derby. I think McCracken + gunnavera are top 2 for derby in my eyes now with one liner 3rd.

I just want to be a great handicapper btw. I feel I'm ok like break even level however my bankroll management is pathetic as I make big bets in graded races that are hard to pick consistently.

isnt trevor mccarthy an up and comer, supposed to be the next big thing?

No on TM as a rider. He had a ride prior on the card with a 1 run type out on the lead then fell back then closed into place money strong. Just by my eye and did not care for that and jock was also part of my post race diagnosis of the race for going forward purposes. Is the horse just a off tracker,was it the Jock or trip etc and being it was TM on i will give EA another chance but no confidence going forward really in what to expect next out.

JK sounds like you identified maybe what you know if a leak and everyone gets them at times and why in this nuts game as i said i trust my capping and put the multi's in cheap and have had sustainability with using this recipe. EA was i am sure a 90% or above choice for this weeks contest which by rule you just are looking to get to the next rd unless your playing for 1st in the prelim,each contest is different in the way to attack it this was the right one with the horse not providing right result for me.

Have not a clue whats going on in Oaklawn or Fairgrounds and will catch up in Oaklawn when it gets to be that time BB ships them in.

Weather more than anything has played hell on SoCal racing and really tied the hands of the trainers and Hammers in the office i am certain. Hard to keep a solid training tab last month.

Yea no doubt brm is my leak. I tend to like drinking when I play the horses which I think is a massive leak. When I go to toga and play at the track, I'm always drunk.

I'm playing for top 10 in round 1. I would say chances are low I get top 10 unless I go like 80-100% in win picks of remaining races. I have only picked 3 winners bc I've avoided chalk for a few of the earlier races. (Didn't play McCracken and el areeb) which were massive mistakes. I wish ts ran more promos such as this one. Like it's gotta be so +ev for them. Like this promo got me into horse racing and I find this time of year awesome bc I love kd preps and trying to figure out who will win the kd.

Wine women or gambling at least you have 2/3 covered

Did not mean to jump on your post JK but wanted to send a reminder today of a nice PK5 carry at SA could get to a couple Million. Just at a glance if you have an opinion in the 3rd,4th and can spread elsewhere for a price may be the route i take.

TS has some decent promos and some just absolutely nuts promos so confusing to the avg horse player as well and would do them better to adjust but offer fair service and i do like TS product. I am just playing to get into final rd myself. I think it is over but xpressbet has a decent BTH contest every year but damned i ever remember it.

GL any1 playing the SA P5 carry.

How upset are you if you are alive in the PK6 for the jackpot and they switch surfaces on you and now instead of ticket in hand its hat....good grief this damn sport man. Believe prickly is a PK6 player like to hear his opinion if he has one on this and the overall new PK6 at SA. I am of the opinion it is a failure but i am almost always a traditionalist EXCEPT with horse racing. It is like a car little smoke coming out under the hood check engine lights on and driver says nope thats how the car has always run. Little common sense and elbow grease i think the car will quit smoking and be a much more stable vehicle.

Have to stat with foresight. See it to achieve it. Have to know what to do with your athletes (industries word not mine) after racing. Remember when we watched Cal Ripken Jr and his durability(what an athlete) and his All-star game home run then his retirement then we ate him...Wait what? Sorry he was sent to slaughter...Thats better. You start there.

Lets also renovate for $300 million because no one sits on there ass at home and watches horse racing on their large screen tv and convenience of multi tools per handicapping or contest etc at their fingertips. Ignored the problem and it didnt go away? Damn thought that would work for sure....Did with my ex

I played a 10 dollar ticket with 3 singles lol. Big mistake. I went 0-3 in singled races lol and just followed what tvg commentators singled in the last 2 races bc I wanted a potential sweat.

Can't wait for the kd day pick 4 with a big gtn!

How come Michael Wrona still sounds like an Aussie dik after being in the usa now 25 plus years?

the triple crown preps have bored the hell out of me this yr. i literally have heard of none of the horses in the TB Derby. how is that even possible

Kobe's Back is the sprinter version of Hoppertunity but worse. a lot worse

haha you aren't paying enough attention. Kidding but this is by far my favorite time of the year bc so much is unknown and still cant call a top 5 derby contender list until the major preps are run (fl derby, la derby, sa derby, etc).

Went 2/2 this week in the ts promo however i'm sure a lot of people did. Prolly need to go 3 or 4/4 in rest and get maybe 2 dogs for a chance at top 10 finish. Mastery looked great at SA off the layoff.... sucks for baffert that horse was injured after the wire but he has done pretty well recently in the kd so prolly not a big deal.

I think pletcher is going to have great shot at a derby win with one liner and tapwrit. I felt tapwrit had a bad trip when he was beat by mccraken in the sam f davis and re rallied at the end and looked like he catches mccraken if race is longer. I feel one liner is even better than tapwrit and has a solid shot the derby.

I played a small win/place bet on dickinson in the hillsborough. Thought it was comical how isabella sings was the favorite and has never won at 9 panels. The horse actually set semi slow fractions compared to her past races and still won which kinda shocked me.