HORSE RACING THREAD

[how cliche]

Originally Posted by how cliche

20 buck bets for August 4, 2012...

Santa Rosa Race 7 $20 double: 4 with 7

Saratoga Race 9: $20 win #7

Del Mar Race 7 :$20 double: 2 with 7

Del Mar Race 8: $20 win #7(if dead)

60 to 80 at risk.

Santa Rosa: Hit the 1st half. The 2nd half reared in the paddock injuring himself, prompting a vet scratch. 32.00 consolation payout. +12

Saratoga: Expected my hoss to come from last, but was 3rd early and 3rd at the finish too. -20

Del Mar: Hit the 1st half. Will pay was 56.20 x 10...2nd half ran her race, but was beaten a head by the fav. -20

-28 total
Tomorrow.

[Jokerz2424]

This summer is killing me.

[DiscreetCat]

Saratoga - Race 6

#9 Tap Twenty One (6/1 ml)

Been waiting on this filly to run back for about a month now. In her debut @ Churchill back on June 30, she absolutely butchered the break to be off dead-last, then was some 15 lengths off the lead while racing down the backstretch. Looked like the rider just threw in the towel after the tough start. That being said, she came into the stretch still waaaay behind, at which point the rider seemed to let her run a little bit just to see what she had. Just took off running at that point, passing most of the field thru the stretch to somehow get up for 4th, and then, shockingly, blew right past the winner on the gallop-out not too far past the finish line. Stretches out to two turns today, and certainly seems equipped to handle it. Also may have a good bit more speed than she showed after the horrible break last time. Just lots to like about this one, as her running line in the form just doesn't do her any justice, and she figures to be overlooked here.

As for Tap Twenty One's competition, the one that sticks out the most is the Chris Clement firster (#2 Win For Kitten, 12/1 ml). First off, i have no idea how this one is being listed @ 12/1, because Clement is hitting 23% with first-time starters going a mile-or-longer (from 65 such starters), for a huge flat-bet profit of nearly 80%. Aside from that, she also happened to work heads-up (on grass) with Da Mi Basia Mille back on July 9, and Da Mi Basia Mille emerged from that drill to win a two-turn maiden turf race (just like this one) on July 23, with this same rider (Lezcano) aboard. Looks like good value also, and seems like the main threat to Tap Twenty One. Would probably make for a nice exacta box, too.

[TheWalk]

DMR 8 Best Pal Stakes:

The #2 looks great on the track.

$40 WP on #2 Moreno

[Kevroc]

Originally Posted by Jokerz2424

I'm in

Originally Posted by Pay The Line

Can't seem to log on?

Ugh guys.. I just bought a house and been busy painting and trying to get the flooring done.. so I missed this AND the Portland Meadows survivor.. I hate missing out on free monies.



I'll try to get in for next week.

[how cliche]

Seconditis, ever get it? Have it now. Tough game.

The good news is I won the local donkament yesterday. 34 players. True story. With 7 left(recoups at 6th, 5th starts earning)I was small blind and had less than 2bb. Looked down at 88 "shoved", tripled up and was on my way.

[pdiggz]

much respect for you guys playing Del Mar. whenever i play there i feel like i just got pistol whipped and my dick lit on fire.

true story: last year i won a race at Del Mar. I mean it was by DQ, but still, a wins a win. Winsome Charm - you will always have a place in my heart. Horse who cut off Winsome Charm in the stretch, only your name has been forgotten, not your act of kindness.

[horseforcourse]

Huge pick 6 carryover at Del Mar tomorrow.
Anyone playing any tickets? I'll post mine later.

[Honcho]

Ok fellas my take from the past weekend and upcoming PK6 carry at Del Mar for 8/8/12.

I agree chromakey not a good ride for RTG at all,the first thing i said after about 3 sec into the race is " the F'in guy thinks hes mike smith and got Big Z underneath him,wtf?" lol...Just knew at that point with closing foot wouldnt be enough.

Shackleford,big fan,posted several times on him won posted preakness 2 yrs back yada yada. But i hated this spot for him,so many red flags and getting even money for new dist,inside w/speed to outside on a harrowed track drawing from the rail,to me its just forget about it,its an automatic fade,and again i really like the horse. Now if i remember right i think it was about 167k in the Win pool on Shak,and to ME that is ALL dead money. This is why i want the exchange wagering (legal) so badddd. I can watch these beautiful animals run around all freaking day as a fan,i love horses,but as an investor thats a spot i would love to pounce. Its like fishing and not needing a pole or bait they just jump into the boat Stay within your roll,wash rinse repeat hopefully by making selective wagers,watching the races or replays daily to stay on top of tracks and horses/jockeys is ideally what with exchange wagering i will be doing,now im watching pretty much.

As HC,Pdiggz,and everyone who plays Del Mar has said,its a sob no doubt about it,but the days you throw the right darts your def rewarded,and with a quick glance and just seeing field sizes,and reading on DRF about BB's runner there may be a single to this opening up a ticket between $300-$500 that would be worth the investment to roi for sure,but have not saw ML's yet that that matters being Del Mar,think he knows either LOL......

[Kevroc]

Originally Posted by Honcho

Now if i remember right i think it was about 167k in the Win pool on Shak,and to ME that is ALL dead money. This is why i want the exchange wagering (legal) so badddd. I can watch these beautiful animals run around all freaking day as a fan,i love horses,but as an investor thats a spot i would love to pounce. Its like fishing and not needing a pole or bait they just jump into the boat

That's the only way I'd endorse exchange wagering. If it were restricted to Graded Stakes.

[TheWalk]

I've been capping the DMR card for tomorrow's pk6 carryover. I'm probably going to put up a ticket in the $144-$288 range depending on scratches and some other stuff.

My early impressions are that I am not going to use executiveprivledge as a single. I think some other 2yo in the race are wicked fast and may be able to hold on to the 6.5 furlongs with one race under their belt. Also am leaning toward smokey lonsesome as a single in the first leg. the 7 quail hollow scares me as lone speed, but not sure quail hollow can hold on... I may wait to see if the 7 gets a ton of play tomorrow before I submit my ticket.

Some other horses that could win at non-favorite prices IMO:

Race 4: #12 Breathless (8/1 ML) gets talamo, who has been kind of hot recently and leaves the 9 quiet sunshine to get on #12. D'mato can win first time out...

Race 5: #4 Punch Drunk (15/1 ML) - Has some back class with middling results. Drop in class and Oneil can get em in the winners circle after long layoffs. I will be using for sure

Race 6: #2 Warren's Last Dance (20/1 ML) -- this is a major longshot, but hey do you want to go all chalk here? didn't think so... has won at the distance, 2nd race off a layoff, stalked last race in an OK effort against similar... I'm liking how Edwin M has been riding lately... why not?

Race 7: #2 and #9, crazy speed, good jocks; maybe one gets the jump on the other and executiveprivledge has a slow, slow, slow start...

Race 8: no idea! hate taking the chalk, but the 2 looks good, and 3 looks good... so no longshot possibilities in my analysis yet...

I'll be touching base tomorrow hopefully. anyone else got any ideas?

[horseforcourse]

Pretty big fields for a Wednesday. Lots of great racing. Ticket is not going to be cheap

[RutgersKev]

I earned a $120 bonus at a wagering site I want to make a quick turnaround on. What do you think is the best way to do this? Find a big favorite in a small horse field and bet $120 to show?

[pdiggz]

RutgersKev - Assuming you want to do this quick and dont care about potential profit, then this seems fine. Off a quick look - Prairie Meadows race 6 on friday, #5 British Fleet would be a good play. Min payoff at Prm is 2.20 so you'd potentially make 12 instead of 6. Something would have to go terribly wrong for him to finish off the board.

[how cliche]

Free pp's for the pick 6 sequence can be found here...
http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html

I'd love to play it today, but can't feature my tickets costing less than 600 with under 5% chance of hitting, so i'll pass for a carryover where it costs 200 and I put my chances at 10% or better.

FWIW my picks for the races...
3rd 2,6

4th 1,7,9,11,12

5th 9

6th 1,8

7th 2,3,6,7,9

8th 2,5,8