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Old 04-11-2012, 07:42 PM   #5416
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by how cliche View Post
JO you have a professional approach that's quite impressive. I certainly appreciate a pro posting their picks prior to 'em going off. I'm always looking for mentors to model my game after. I reckon you understand a signifigant amount of game theory.
One thing that has helped me is managing my bankroll better. I wager 5% of my total bankroll each bet. That way, if the system is working, your bankroll will grow larger and if losing, grow smaller. One major problem I had in the past was too little results in determining if a system (trend or pattern) that I was looking at, had a good probability of working.

Time and time again I would try a system in real-time betting only to have it breakdown and then lose my entire bankroll. Instead of throwing $500 or $1,000 into my TwinSpires account, I now just start with a $100. This probably is too small of a bankroll if your betting gimmicks, but for my usual "Win" bets, it works very well.

If you develop, say, 5 different systems, you can use 1 bankroll for your betting, but think of it as 5 mini bankrolls drawing from 1 source of capitol. That way each system bet grows or declines so your winning systems bankroll will grow and your losing systems bankroll will decline. If you have a winning system it will grow very fast, so there is no reason to throw a lot of money at it unless you require more "Action... (excitement)" that higher betting will give you.

Betting in this manner will give you a huge chance of avoiding the "probability of ruin", providing that is, you have a winning system.

Other than that, you can see what other people are doing in this thread to win. I try to use some type of a logical explanation, as to why a trend works or could work, although we don't really need a reason why something works.

I find it an interesting way to handicap races by what some other poster's have mentioned about looking at the animal before the race and developing "Tells" or "signs" that the horse is ready to run. So then there are different ways to handicap races, and I will add that I tend to handicap how the public bets more than how a particular horse looks in it's past performance.

One last bit of advice is that I encourage everyone to keep records of what types of bets are working or not working at each Racetrack. I found a huge leak in that, I simply can't win at certain tracks and this puts my new return on investment at 100% and I believe that this new information is so strong that it will show up with positive returns in future betting and I'll post results here, months down the road, but I will only believe my new-found optimism when I'm sitting on a beach in Hawaii sipping rum out of a pineapple

Good Luck to All
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Old 04-12-2012, 12:43 AM   #5417
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I know the question was for Jo and I didn't mean to jump in, but I thought that I'd share a couple viewpoints that hopefully could save you and or other people from some mistakes that I've made over the years in regards to a lot of time and money spent. I certainly would be interested in Jo's or any ones views on Horse Racing.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:33 AM   #5418
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^^^ for what its worth IMO, luck is preparation met with opportunity. Capping is merely bout forming opinions & then making decisions. Anyone can learn all the angles, but im of strong opinion u cant teach some1 how to formulate. Ur born with that knack imo. Capping is easy, pool selection is hard. Tough game
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:53 AM   #5419
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Yeah and Horse Racing has unfortunately continued in a decline, due to what I believe, is a very high take out. I believe Horse Racing could be revived by substantially reducing the take, making a better profit by increasing volume and creating a Boom in new betters, but I don't really see this happening. More people will leave the Sport resulting in the good handicapper's staying around which means a harder and harder game to beat.

You have to work very hard and you better enjoy the ride or find something else. I have systems for sports betting and one day I'll move to Vegas to bet that legally and I look forward to the next on-line Poker Boom when legalized, but Horse Racing will always be an interest as I have to say, that over the years, I continue to get better at it.
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Old 04-12-2012, 08:12 AM   #5420
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Any tips for grand national on sat in UK? 5 races in total.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:25 PM   #5421
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Im setting here at work salavating over Keenelands 3rd race today.. I absolutely love the #1 Cassia Row. Shes a 2nd time starter, in her first start in a MSW @ FG on the turf, she was dead last at the 1/2, then started making a run, but only to slam the rail at the 3/8 pole causing C.J. to lose the irons and she still managed to run on to pick up 4th place only beat 4 3/4 lengths for the top prize. She has a real nice 5 panel work over the poly goin 101 3/5 breezin. Only the chad brown runner scares me a lil #8, however G motion has a $1.3 mil purchase as well, and if she decides to wake up here today making her 3rd start she could b good, but i gotta stick to the #1 and play a small saver the other way/ . gonna have a a lil fun while im at work today.. hehe.

Keeneland Race 3
$100 win #1

$20 ex box 1,8

$10 ex 8-1

$10 ex 9-1

$160 total
GL

Last edited by AlwaysTwinNSpired; 04-12-2012 at 01:26 PM. Reason: forgot total
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:11 PM   #5422
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That was sum bull****^^^
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Old 04-12-2012, 03:52 PM   #5423
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big_Mick00 View Post
Any tips for grand national on sat in UK? 5 races in total.
https://www.facebook.com/BazzasBanke...52757751422557

I have e/w bets on Chicago Grey, West End Rocker and Always Right.

On His Own seems a good shout too. I'd stay away from Synchronised, he's carrying top weight and not enough value given how long the race is/unpredictability.

If you click the link though with those tips, note that he posted those ages ago and the prices for all three horses are much shorter now. Also ignore that Burton Port because he is a non runner.

Last edited by Miss Scarlet; 04-12-2012 at 03:58 PM.
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Old 04-12-2012, 04:53 PM   #5424
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Santa Anita 4/12/12

3.) 2-8-6
4.) 1-6-4
5.) 8-4-5
6.) 2-6-4
7.) 2-6-1
8.) 7-6-2

The back nine has a little more value imo than the front.
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Old 04-12-2012, 08:34 PM   #5425
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Had that card bassackwards today,must of started my round on #10
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Old 04-13-2012, 01:22 PM   #5426
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

WOODBINE .20 pick four

4) 3-5
5) 1-3-6-10-11
6) 2-5
7) 7-8-10

$12

ytd -153
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Old 04-13-2012, 02:54 PM   #5427
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

EMERALD DOWNS OPENING DAYYYYYYY


Nice promotion today giving away 50 32inch LCD flat screen TVs.

My guesses were right Winning Machine will run at Hastings tomorrow in the George Royal Stakes (50k 6f) This bodes well as it is one less horse for Heart to worry about in the allowance on the 22nd.

Now onto today's card.......... 8 races, not big fields but its been a while since EMD had big fields! SO Im just happy they put a card on!

Race 5 is the most interesting race on todays card. An 8 horse field of 3 yr old filly maidens (MD claimer 20k purse: 11,500 5f)

1/2 are First time starters trained by Chris Stenslie, a trainer who has definately seen a rise in stock over the last couple seasons, including a great campaign last year. Both these horses appear to have been working in company, and secure the services of two experienced track riders in Leslie Mawing and Debra Hoonan. I do like the fact that they both have 3 5f works leading up to this race, so some foundation is there.

3 Hasn't raced since late August of last year, and the trainer is 6% clip coming off of a 180+ layoff. Will skip. Furthermore the sire Liberty Gold's best horses thus far have excelled at longer distances. This could be building towards later in the meet when more mile + races are carded.

4 first time starter, owned by Don and Judi Gardiner who own quite a few horses in the NW. One particular factor I like about this horse is that it has been training on the polytrack at Pegasus, Pegasus has a very deep polytrack surface, which is slower and quite tiring. Hoping this horse has set a good foundation ( and when she ran at EMD on the 6th she blitzed 3f in 34 1/5).

5 Last out was 2nd to a horse that came back to win a stakes at PM, that said she will have to produce a solid jump from her 3 yr old debut to win this race.

6 trainer Howard Belvoir hits at an 18% clip with horses coming back from a +180 layoff. This horse is the most experienced runner in the field having made 4 starts at 2. She ran relatively evenly in all 4 races not really showing much improvement (32, 27, 32, 31 beyers). She did end the year racing in a restricted stake for state breds, so they could see some promise in this filly too. Did complete a 5f work in a nice 59 3/5 (5/57) on the 7th.

7 THE CHOICE, River of Aces is a filly that raced in January at GG, at the same level we see today. She sert the early pace from the rail, and came up empty. Needless to say the average maiden 20k claimer is stronger at GG then at EMD, and she ran a 46 first time out. Blitzed 4f in 45 1/5. CCould be ready to go! Trainer is also 20% on 61-180 breaks, and the Jockey gives the horse a 5 lb weight reduction while still winning at a 24% clip herself!

8 THE THREAT, Tizzy the cop showed good speed in a maiden special weight at PM (5k purse lol ) raced in March so should be coming back fresh and ready to roll in this race, where as Aces is coming back off a longer layoff.

50c P4s

1: 3,5
2: 1,3
3: 1,3,4,5,8
4: 4,5

$20

5: 1,2,4,5,6,7,8
6: 1
7: 5,6,8
8: 2,6

$21

YTDEMD: -41$

Last edited by Sti1gar; 04-13-2012 at 03:18 PM.
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Old 04-13-2012, 03:27 PM   #5428
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Oaklawn Classix

1-11
1-2-3-10
3
2-6-11
2
1-2-4-6-7


Have an 8-1 singled in the 3rd leg, race 5, Crafty Cal. Sherriff Hotdog has scratched, I think that Crafty Cal will get the lead, if he wins I can lose a lot of tickets there I think.

Will also be playing pick3s, pick4 and late double. Good luck to anyone else playing today.
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Old 04-13-2012, 03:38 PM   #5429
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by corndogg99 View Post
Oaklawn Classix

1-11
1-2-3-10
3
2-6-11
2
1-2-4-6-7


Have an 8-1 singled in the 3rd leg, race 5, Crafty Cal. Sherriff Hotdog has scratched, I think that Crafty Cal will get the lead, if he wins I can lose a lot of tickets there I think.

Will also be playing pick3s, pick4 and late double. Good luck to anyone else playing today.

Or the alternative, I can just be out after the first leg. FML.
1 was rank in stretch, 11 moved too late, #8 at 25-1 takes it weeee.
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Old 04-13-2012, 04:09 PM   #5430
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pay The Line View Post
Yeah and Horse Racing has unfortunately continued in a decline, due to what I believe, is a very high take out. I believe Horse Racing could be revived by substantially reducing the take, making a better profit by increasing volume and creating a Boom in new betters, but I don't really see this happening.
FWIW, I love racing but totally disagree that the take is relevant. HR was popular at a slower time. I mean, if I drive to Parx, I get a bet down, the race takes 1:30 - fine, whatever, - the next race is a half-hour later!

That just can't compete with poker, slots, table games, other.

Yes, I'm aware of OTB. No one cares really in our or definitely not the younger generation. It's like playing bridge to them - great game, never ever coming back.
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