quaid - no way your #'s are correct. 2500/11k no way pays 2.20 when the other is 1500/11k. also you have to multiply the $1 profit by 2 and add $2 to get the payout.
Value in what way? Meaning AP is gonna win and pay 10%. Could be.
Doesn't mean there isn't value there if that's the way you see the race.
Lots of value in repeating bets multi times if you agree with the betting public.
Having a $20 tri, 30 times is good playing, nothing wrong with that.
Millions flying around in all the pools-lots of value there for sure. P3,4,5,6's with most ending on him singled so lots of value there. Free squares are as good as it gets in playing the races.
If that's the way you see it...
Well, today marks the 3rd gallop or workout since hes gotten back to the track. 3 times out and still nothing about eating and putting on more weight or muscle. Yeah they are saying he looks good but thats it. Remember im from so cal i want this bad for a west coast horse. Just like ive said it usually gets said and it hasnt. Hope i see it soon or my pk 4 tix gonna get more expensive
Talked to a guy last night who was at Churchill to visit his horse and stopped to see AP and talked to the groom for a while a few days after AP got back to Kentucky.
He said AP was the most exhausted he has ever seen him after the Preakness, but he was licking his bucket clean everyday.
Should we go ahead and give AP the rail and skip the draw
I am certain i have 2 singles i am playing in the PK6 and PK4 and am going to spread in others and hope to catch a big number there.
Right now weather has it as 40% chance of showers and 75 degrees and i do not see it any other way regardless hell run it in the parking lot i think AP does it.
Yeah you could tell from that one still picture in the shed row after AP was whooped. Understandably that storm was a MF'r. They found the bottom of him there.
Single is Undrafted (back to back) and who? kiddin
I think betting against American pharoah is the play. Especially at 3/5 which is lol wrong line especially at this distance which is unknown to these horses. I think frosted + mubtahiij make a nice bet if you bet both to win. Mubtahiij is prolly best bred for distance so at 16-1 I think he's a steal. Frosted also is a very classy horse I believe that if his form from his last race previous to kd holds up + he has the distance down could win. If it rains, i def like ap much more. At the price though, gotta bet against him. Think too much value betting against him and if you lose, at least you get to see a triple crown winner.
Simple question: Why are handicappers down on FROSTED?
Edit to say: down on his chances. Shouldn't he be the wise guy horse here?
IMO he ran great in the Kentucky Derby. He swallowed half the stretch first time through, ran wide as hell and finished with great interest. "non-threatening" my a$$.
You would have to be smashed to take even money on NO against AP.
Divide your budget by 7 and the average of the all but AP win bets may be higher than even.
Check the math of the top of my head though I'm not that bright.
You're welcome.
Yea I think you are better off picking 2-3 horses if you wanna play against ap. Think the plays would be materiality, frosted, and mubtahiij imo. Who knows though honestly. The distance is a real question for all horses in play imo.
If you are going to get into a NO bet vs. AP, I would go ahead and toss keen ice, framento, and tale of verve also. That leaves you 4 horses, a 5-1, 6-1, 10-1,12-1. By post time, those numbers will probably be a little sweeter as well.
It's got to be token bets though as far as your bankroll, because AP is the real deal.
In my head I was trying to think of things that could keep him out of the winners circle.
Bad break, accident out of gate.
Injury of enough severity to compromise his chances
Other horse incident, cutoff off by non winner, any other horse accident.
Jock loses whip, or other significant equipment malfunction.
Loses shoe (s)
A really bad ride (it's possible )
He just doesn't fire today.
DQ'd / interference with other horse.
He may still be in the money even if he loses.
I bet against him in the derby and preakness, but I'm sticking with the plan.
I am mixing, matching mubtaahej, made from lucky, frosted, and materiality.
Personally though, I can't wait to see the Monster Drink Girls in the winners circle at Belmont Park.
In my head I was trying to think of things that could keep him out of the winners circle.
Bad break, accident out of gate.
Injury of enough severity to compromise his chances
Other horse incident, cutoff off by non winner, any other horse accident.
Jock loses whip, or other significant equipment malfunction.
Loses shoe (s)
A really bad ride (it's possible )
He just doesn't fire today.
DQ'd / interference with other horse.
