Quote:
Originally Posted by jshar
@Honcho -
I had an old account with 2+2, made "a ton" of beer+herb/dating/spring break money through out highschool and college, all thanks to 2+2, i didn't have any friends who played it seriously, learned a lot from resources gathered from this site. By 09/10 the games got too hard, and I started working around then, so I stopped.
Lot of sites about cards, but 2+2 was always the real deal though, was hoping to get a recommendation by the smart degens here regarding horse racing.
//Regarding fandom -
The big racing days are a lot of fun I think. I heard between european/aussie/jpn/hk turf there are million dollar races every week, but without an edge I know I can't beat a 20-30% takeout. I like having fun, but losing money takes all the fun out of it for me... like w/ cards, I can't win anymore so I rarely play.
//Regarding capping ability -
I know it's all about variance, not ever going to crown any body. I just find it cool that in this wacky sport, full of cheaters, and relying upon animal behavior, that there are some people out there who can totally chart out at race... where each horse is going to be in relation to one another ---
1/4 in , 3/4 in, and the finish.
I gather that data trumps most thing, also important is local knowledge, seeing horses do their workouts, why is x trainer/owner putting this horse in the race?
//What I'm looking for -
1. Live XML Feed /or/
2. Screen scraping advice /and/
3. Reliable sources for local track news, preferably larger tracks with larger pools
My buddy made a program himself, has different algos for different tracks, different surfaces, furlongs, etc. But the way he does it, it requires a lot of manual work and he keeps no track record, so I said I would help him build and maintain a database for historical data, making it easy to back test your algos instead of switching it up and having no real idea how much of your profit is pure lucky variance.
He already has been making money past 3 years, finds long shots pretty well, goal is to be selective and make +Ev bets. Hits lots of large exotics, pick 4/5/6. Listens to some radio/reads some articles to try and get local knowledge too.
Most of the data gathering is really manual though, and for live data it's impossible from what I gather. But a screen scraper or more ideally a raw xml feed would help immensely with live odds. Knowing how big the pools are would cut down on time spent capping.
For example: Data could suggest a listed 11/1 horse with the best speed numbers on a short dirt race and adequate trainer/jocky combo win% is the only +ev bet for the race, but by the time the race goes off he is bet up to 3/1 and isn't +ev... so, you have to watch the race live or risk making a -ev bet.. which costs a lot of time.
Also exotic pools - experience could give you an idea how big they are - what day, what track.... but getting that data live, running your capping software, and exactly measuring +ev bets would yield even better results.
Long story short, I think my buddy may just been getting lucky, but at the same time may be on to something, this sport may be beatable even with a large takeout.... so any insight on the 3 things I listed above would help a ton.
Sorry if i came across as a dik and like your write up. I do not post anywhere else but here i am a public handicapper and just choose to do it here on 2+2 but no doubt i should elsewhere as well but i am a loyal guy so i started here i stay here. BUT i know there is a chat section with night school on HorsePlayersNow on Tuesdays nights at 8:30pm est. I only made a remark or 2 to Caton Bradar and Jeremy Plonk i like Jeremy's approach to the wagering aspect of the game. There are plenty of night school programs from the past on there you can listen to as well.
Steve Byk has a radio show at 9am-12 M-F and he has a forum i believe called derbytrail that several people do the same thing as here i would imagine but less cool because i am here and not there ofcorse
Paceadvantage more than likely is your biggest forum with several people sharing info as well. I use forums to see how people think not for what they think if that makes sense. Several people i know are solid cappers but that makes not a difference to me because i know i got game myself and if i am going to lose a buck it will be on my own opinions that is for sure. Give me the form,tell me the weather i got it from there
Renodoc i remember you saying that now which i missed in the KYD week excitement and you obv have saw some great racing over your days at some great tracks. I am glad this years KYD gave you something new. Get to a certain age and seems like we darn near squeezed the enthusiasm out of everything we possibly could and left with mundane often but with horse racing each day i can get that renewed excitement from the same left turns.