Wish played that pool 3 exacta.

It's been covered but Materiality ran a really big race. So did Frosted.

Beyer 105 for the winner. Seems about right.

made over 3k hitting the superfecta on the dirby, had pharaoh on top of every ticket, with dortmond/firing line 2 or 3rd boxed, then gambled a bit who would come in 4th. the results were very chalky, but a $1 super fecta was still over 600 bucks, big money

I was being told on the big racing days, horses show up usually and play to form. On slow days it's common for people to cheat or for whatever reason horses perform way off, or pull up and don't make the board at all.

A buddy I know who loves to handicap horses advised me on who to play and convinced me to hang out and watch the derby before going out to see the fight.

beginners luck? good way to get me hooked... anyway, are there any other quality forums like 2+2 that focus on horse racing?

my man sgvoak broke it down near verbatim like my buddy did, if you follow this stuff and it's a big racing day where people don't cheat egregiously, and where there is a lot of dumb money in the pool I think it's beatable even with the criminal takeout.

off the bat, it's probably +ev to ride Pharoah for the Preakness, and then go against him at the Belmont when the dumb money is going to bet him up to 1/3

so again... are there any other quality forums like 2+2 that focus on horse racing?

shoutout to a good handicapper:

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgvoak View Post
Hey room hope all is well. Honcho glad your happy try to sneak a clean dab in lol . Ok. First off to me. It really really hurts that ocho ocho got the 1 post. He was a top 3 to get out and set up the pace. Now hes just done. 2 carpi diem. 2 post horrible but pletcher horses always get in trouble. This horse found trouble his last big feild at bc juvy. johnny v needs to get him out gate slow stay away from bumping and come pick up peices with a late final 25 seconds to get a 3rd 4th. Materiality. if he breaks fast sets pace if trouble break just to slow like most. Tencendor front runner but slow front runner so will be in back. Look. American Pharoah dortmund and firing line all run sub 23 sub 47 then still 110. 135. At this pace pharoah sat 2nd then first and finished 12 splits but dortmund ran same noone got him. Firing line ran fastest thats why i feel he will be pace setter dortmund and pharoah will sit right behind him if he gets out slow dortmund will set pace AP firing line right behind who can keep up others will try fade at mile. Next group will try to come but either to far or cant run 12s. Maybe mubtajeed but i just see 2 of the 3 battle one falls does he hold 3rd ??? Will have alot under but speed is speed speed and skill is deadly. Hope firing line is 15/20 to 1


hope some of you listened to this

jshar type horse racing forums in the google search bar same way you found it here.

This is horse racing everyone has there own ideas and i am certain mine were not far off as were others itt and i did fairly well but do not need to beat on my chest about it. Everyone who is itt knows who knows their chit and who does not. Take B3 as an example from our thread he saw the race in a complete opposite direction does this make him a bad capper and now we should not listen to what he says? What about all the so called experts who were all over the wrong horses? I know enough about B3 to know he is a solid capper/player and respect his opinions and play but i and every other horse player i know would rather compete against one another than follow one another. The game is more rewarding when you put in your own work.
I do hope SGV you are still counting your $$ though man and happy for you because nothing is more exciting to put in the work and have it turn out the way you anticipated and backed.

Over extended myself and played poor to avg in the tourneys this weekend...On to this week.

Was surprised that there was no mention of Dortmund and his colic on the 25th...not that it was changing my mind as my #1 i had AP backed also but i think i do not single Dort on many tix and go 2 on top and spread more underneath. Did not have Dort in the show spot or take tri also with exacta but got that Oaks/Derby for a couple hundred i think it was had it 5x's. Believe i ended KYD up $180...Not what i was looking for at all.

Catching Byk...Watching replays i thought Frosted moved too soon but moved he did holy chit!

Morning room. First jshar thank u very much glad u walked out A winner. Pay those taxes. Next honcho first great pk 4. Man i couldnt believe they allowed the undefeated silver filly go 8/8 @ 7/2 . Yes i hit the speed of the west held up but u all know i wanted dortmund to win. The great thing about being in this group is having an oppertunity to swap info with people from around the country. U guys might not believe it but a post about being there watchinh live feeling the crowd rumble means as much as the money itself. Also if i was as good on a thursday as i looked on saturday, id be doing much better. Lol. Gl all. Again if had fun got home safe and theres something in your wallet, you DID WIN

SGV you make a solid point and i was just making a funny out of his last sentence but having only been to 1 live race and it was the 09 MTB win i was very jealous that newcomer to the thread renodoc was on scene I hope that made you a fan forever it you were not already...Still think i gave you a recipe for success. Then i saw Touchdown Tom Brady ringside talking to whoever was holding the microphone saying he just got back from watching the KYD on course and i then forgot all about renodoc and knew TB had it goin on and watching the fight with my son and he was laughing knowing me i just could only think of the correct compliment and it was F you Tom and yes was smilin saying it guy is doin something right and a Michigan man if there was a doubt.

An also here but when JF came out and was attempting the National anthem i told my kid they need to give the microphone to the dude that just song the cinco de mayo chit because this is going to be ugly...Was fun rooting when Manny threw his 6 punches though for the fight.

Have been a fan all my life, just never been to a TC race.

My uncle used to own horses at Pimlico. Used to cut school to go to Santa Anita, and spent many a day at Del Mar.

None of that compared to Louisville on Saturday

@Honcho -

I had an old account with 2+2, made "a ton" of beer+herb/dating/spring break money through out highschool and college, all thanks to 2+2, i didn't have any friends who played it seriously, learned a lot from resources gathered from this site. By 09/10 the games got too hard, and I started working around then, so I stopped.

Lot of sites about cards, but 2+2 was always the real deal though, was hoping to get a recommendation by the smart degens here regarding horse racing.

//Regarding fandom -

The big racing days are a lot of fun I think. I heard between european/aussie/jpn/hk turf there are million dollar races every week, but without an edge I know I can't beat a 20-30% takeout. I like having fun, but losing money takes all the fun out of it for me... like w/ cards, I can't win anymore so I rarely play.


//Regarding capping ability -

I know it's all about variance, not ever going to crown any body. I just find it cool that in this wacky sport, full of cheaters, and relying upon animal behavior, that there are some people out there who can totally chart out at race... where each horse is going to be in relation to one another ---
1/4 in , 3/4 in, and the finish.

I gather that data trumps most thing, also important is local knowledge, seeing horses do their workouts, why is x trainer/owner putting this horse in the race?

//What I'm looking for -
1. Live XML Feed /or/
2. Screen scraping advice /and/
3. Reliable sources for local track news, preferably larger tracks with larger pools

My buddy made a program himself, has different algos for different tracks, different surfaces, furlongs, etc. But the way he does it, it requires a lot of manual work and he keeps no track record, so I said I would help him build and maintain a database for historical data, making it easy to back test your algos instead of switching it up and having no real idea how much of your profit is pure lucky variance.

He already has been making money past 3 years, finds long shots pretty well, goal is to be selective and make +Ev bets. Hits lots of large exotics, pick 4/5/6. Listens to some radio/reads some articles to try and get local knowledge too.

Most of the data gathering is really manual though, and for live data it's impossible from what I gather. But a screen scraper or more ideally a raw xml feed would help immensely with live odds. Knowing how big the pools are would cut down on time spent capping.

For example: Data could suggest a listed 11/1 horse with the best speed numbers on a short dirt race and adequate trainer/jocky combo win% is the only +ev bet for the race, but by the time the race goes off he is bet up to 3/1 and isn't +ev... so, you have to watch the race live or risk making a -ev bet.. which costs a lot of time.

Also exotic pools - experience could give you an idea how big they are - what day, what track.... but getting that data live, running your capping software, and exactly measuring +ev bets would yield even better results.

Long story short, I think my buddy may just been getting lucky, but at the same time may be on to something, this sport may be beatable even with a large takeout.... so any insight on the 3 things I listed above would help a ton.

Ducking Tonalist at Belmont is a good call. Looks like Tapit will do it with Frosted as well.

Sorry if i came across as a dik and like your write up. I do not post anywhere else but here i am a public handicapper and just choose to do it here on 2+2 but no doubt i should elsewhere as well but i am a loyal guy so i started here i stay here. BUT i know there is a chat section with night school on HorsePlayersNow on Tuesdays nights at 8:30pm est. I only made a remark or 2 to Caton Bradar and Jeremy Plonk i like Jeremy's approach to the wagering aspect of the game. There are plenty of night school programs from the past on there you can listen to as well.

Steve Byk has a radio show at 9am-12 M-F and he has a forum i believe called derbytrail that several people do the same thing as here i would imagine but less cool because i am here and not there ofcorse

Paceadvantage more than likely is your biggest forum with several people sharing info as well. I use forums to see how people think not for what they think if that makes sense. Several people i know are solid cappers but that makes not a difference to me because i know i got game myself and if i am going to lose a buck it will be on my own opinions that is for sure. Give me the form,tell me the weather i got it from there

Renodoc i remember you saying that now which i missed in the KYD week excitement and you obv have saw some great racing over your days at some great tracks. I am glad this years KYD gave you something new. Get to a certain age and seems like we darn near squeezed the enthusiasm out of everything we possibly could and left with mundane often but with horse racing each day i can get that renewed excitement from the same left turns.

So I finished 14th out of 1828 in Saturdays NHC Qualify free roll. First tourney I ever played. Told my wife I wouldn't do tourneys but now i'm kind of intrigued. This is how I started getting hooked on MTTs. Won a WSOP main event seat on a Part free roll in 2006. So I know I got points for that finish; is that worth pursuing additional tourneys? Honcho? I did pay my $50 fee prior to the tourney

@Honcho I've been to the track in Sydney on Boxing Day too...those horses make a bunch of right turns there. Weird.

Anyone attended the Melbourne Cup?

No reno i am divorced 4x's i have no money and i live in a van down by the river...Ever been to Oz he asks But seriously no never but i know it is a different way of life and i know horses are smarter than people because of this as well. Put me in OZ i head someone with my car within 10 minutes but get the horse to the track and he follows the rest...seems simple enough but i know how that would pan out for myself. Did pick the winner to last years MC itt though fwiw.

Right when i thought reno had no rival for my envy aph post That's awesome man to hit that high up in it and congrats! I know the winner and her husband he is a reg as she on DW and other tourney sights and he is a very cool cat with a good sense of humor. NTRA website will direct you to where to find what points you earned for the NHC or send them an email they will help more than i could on that one. Smart to pay the $50 too you will see why soon as you play in more tourneys. If you have any ?s at all with the tourney scene feel free to ask itt or shoot me a pm be happy to help or lead you in the right direction anyways. You will play more now for sure and pull your hair out and pat yourself on the back as well but the people and the competing you will have a blast and i know it helped me with my capping as well once i donated enough and finally understood how to win. If you were to read which i am not i am a hands on do it my way guy but Peter Thomas Fornatale on DRF has a good book i am told called The Winning Contest Player and if the book is written in any way that Pete is in real life it will be excellent. I really like PTF and the way he represents the game and himself and he is also a genuine fan of the sport and apparent every time i hear him or see him in a rare tourney.

Thoughts on the Preakness? I think firing line and dortmund can win if they just run much better or ap somehow has bad trip. I also feel like competitive edge could be solid value. I think he won't get distance but he has a lot of speed. Could see him setting quick reactions and weakening at the end. Still think ap will be favorite. I'm interested to see what # he goes off at. Would prolly be a fan of betting him if he goes off at more than 1-1

I think FL can win

I would hold Frosted out and run him in the Belmont. That horse wants to run the extra quarter mile.

I agree.

I agree with 2nd part. Think he would upset triple crown bid if he doesn't race in the Preakness.

In theory i think this is right but after the FoY and if Belmont comes up deep that day like GP played on him when he stopped has me hesitant to this angle.

Night school tonight on HorsePlayersNow at 8:30pm est if anyone is interested. It is a good learning radio show and has a chat section to tell some of your opinions or say hey to the guest.

Hey room. Hope all is well. Dont see anyone other than top 3 maybe even only top 2 winning preakness. Looks like the time off from races from injury helped keep pharoah stay fresh. As far as triple crown. If its not him, its a ny horse. It always is lol.
What im already looking at is the end of the year breeders cup. Older horses are falling and staying off of the map Worse the dodgers players. We might have 3 year old taking all the awards on dirt this year if nobody comes back soon.

Greetings handicappers.
I need some expert opinions on Rock Eagle in Race 10 -Turf $40K maiden claimers at Belmont Sat. May 9th.
He's raced just once- Apr 4th - Race 11 Gulfstream (see replay on YouTube) and impressed me enough with his running style and closing speed to go on my watch list.
I'm seeking value here betting WPS and exactas.
TIA.

Belmont Park 5/7/15

4.) 3-9-2
5.) 3-6-1
6.) 1-4-7
7.) 6-4
8.) 3-4-7
9.) 11-3-8

With scratches and the 9th being crazy wide open i think today's Belmont is a tough last 6.

Santa Anita 5/7/15

1.) 6-2-3
2.) 7-6-1
3.) 3-4-1
4.) 2-6-7
5.) 9-4-8
6.) 2-5-8
7.) 3-7-8
8.) 9-5-6

Tough card today at SA. Headley barn hot with a big ML number in the last.


Churchill Downs 5/7/15

2.) 3-1-4
3.) 5-3-1
4.) 3-6-1
5.) 6-7-5
6.) 2-7-5
7.) 1-9-2
8.) 8-10-7

Very tough card imo today at CHD.

I hope you listened to this! Wait i see the PK6 carried and 5/6 was $359.50...How is this i gave it to everyone free? LOL could not resist

Beholder opinions for Sat? Free square or WV or other, got something for her?