Let's try another one...

Delmar Pick 6

2,5,6,7
2
4,5,7,9
2,3,5,8
1,2,6,9
8

How accurate are the workouts? I've read about the clockers holding back info etc. Without actually being there, how can you tell if a horse really is too slow, or if the workouts aren't being recorded.

Hey ATS,nice to see you back home itt...We are looking at a lot of the same physical keys going into a race,i like the way you broke that down....The best thing myself im looking for,and its hard to describe,but if I see a horse with those quick choppy like front legs in the post parade,im all over it and has done me well over the years. There is a difference in this,and the too amped up horses post parade,which have similar post parade showings imo,and I look to the ears at that point for confirmation to which one I believe it is.

Ed they are accurate,that info can be purchased as well from on track clockers with trusted reps.

Workouts are only as accurate as the track clocker. Those cali clockers prey on horses that they feel the track clocker missed & or got wrong. As Honch quoted above, u can spend big money on top notch clocker report info, but this info is only important in maidens & long layoff horses imo. One last thing about workout times is this, "its not how fast did that work?, its how fast did that horse work & what did he or she look like doing it?" so what im saying is this, If u have two 1sters & one of them worked 5 furlongs in 59.1 from the gate, & while doing so switched to its wrong lead 70 yards from the wire & then u have another 1ster that worked 5 furlongs from the gate in 1.00.2 and while doing so was well within himself & never had to b asked for run. Me personally, im taking the horse that worked in 1.00.2..
Furthermore. 1 day the USA will start taking this serious like the JRA do. Horses that race in Japan are required to wear a bar coded saddle cloth when working out. The bar code trips the timer & allows workouts to b recorded & never missed. The info is made public immediately to the punters. But getting back to how important the visual aspect of a workout is... My uncle frequents Sha Tin in Hong Kong & he explained to me that workouts are so important to the big syndicates that the syndicates rent out neighboring office suites high above the track in the sky scrapers & employ people to video tape the workouts. True story. I guess thats how serious it gets when every race day is twice the size of kentucky derby day pools!!

they rent out offices

Wow good stuff. Thanks!

http://www.williambenter.com/

Above is an older story, but still gives u an idea of how much bigger the game is in HK

This pick 6 at Del Mar tomorrow is going to be huge

Now that its official.. I'll say the pick6 pool tomorrow gets to 2.7 million.

Just over $2mm with ~15MTP, TVG talking heads saying they think it could get up near $4mm.

Will check back in if we're still live in a few races, good luck to all :-)

Was alive until that las debacle. If the 6 or 9 had won. I would have been down to 1 unit a cold 8-7. So with that being said. I like the #8 here in race9.
So gimme $50WP #8
and a $10 DD 8 w 7
$110

Anyone have solid advice for handicapping? Like when I see the program for a race and a favored horse (say maybe 9-5 in the program) is bet down to 3-1 before the race, should this influence my betting. I was at a track last night and I wanna say a 6-1 was bet down to an 8-5 favorite so somebody must know something? I'm just looking to win more often when i bet on horses and obviously know its a losing game.

I'm obv a muppet that likes the action from horse racing.

Jay Privman (@DRFPrivman) tweeted at 8:36 PM on Sat, Aug 03, 2013:
16 live tickets spread among 4 live horses -- 3 tickets to 1, 4 tix to 2 and 3, 5 tix to 7. If any others win, carryover $2,021,451. #delmar

i can try to.... You already have a leg up on most people that are trying this game out. Reason I say that is, you seem to b in touch w/ reality when u say "obviously i know its a losing game".
It is an extremely tough game MrJK, & with the evolution of synthetic racing surfaces & the use of chemical warfare by the trainers. Its makes it even tougher. To answer ur questions first. "When a horse is 9/5 Morning Line, & is going off 3/1, should this influence ur betting?".... IMHO, yes it should influence ur betting. To what degree?? Well that depends on if u liked that horse or not. What that tells us when a ML 9/5 horse goes off @ 3/1, is the public (the bettors) did not agree with the Morning Line of 9/5. A common case of this situation for example is this. Lets say Mike Mitchell jus won a 16k claiming race at delmar by 5 lengths, after the race, he finds out his horse got claimed by Steve Sherman, then 3 weeks later, Steve Sherman enters that same horse in a 16k claiming race @ delmar & the track Handicapper installs him as the 9/5 ML fave bcos he jus crushed a field of horses at this same class level 3 weeks ago. Well i can almost gte u that the horse will not go off at its 9/5 ML, & the reason is, handicappers like myself know that theres very few, if any trainers that could improve a horse out of a Mitchell Barn cos nobody has the chemicals he has, so when that horse changes barns & doesnt receive the same drugs/narcotics its use to getting, its obv not gonna b the same horse & often times the horses go bad real quick!! However, when the novice looks down in the program & sees that this horse jus won its last race by 5 lengths @ this same class level & sees that the horse is 3/1, they get excited & bet it. Thats jus 1 scenario, but hopefully u get the point.
Ur question about the 6/1 ML that was 8/5. Yea, most likely somebody has a strong opinion or like u said, they may know something. This is much more important with maidens (horses that have never won a race) & 1st time starters. Cos if theres alot of $$ bet on a 1st time starter, then obv somebody knows somethin or a reputable clocker has seen something thats caught his eye & then spreads the word.

I encourage u to comb thru this thread, theres several good posters in here & the more u read, the more you"ll understand the game & il b able to answer more specific questions u mite have. Also, i dont wanna sell u dreams or anything, but you CAN beat this game. Hard work, discipline, & more discipline can get u there.
Also, theres a $2500 Pick 4 carryover at Portland Meadows today... Yes, i said portland meadows. There pick 4's are a $1 dollar minimum & the lowest takeout in the country for a pick 4 @ 12.5%. So with it being a $1 min, the payouts are less saturated & offer value imo. Il b lookin that over today & may post my play.
GL JK

I have never made a bet watched the most racing I ever have this year following palace malice. I've been intrigued by the pick 4,5,6's but I really have no idea how one goes about betting those. Can explain this in more detail


Sent from my XT901 using 2+2 Forums

Pick 3's, 4's & 5's are what you call horizontal wagers or multi-race bets. You must have the winner in consecutive races. Pick 3, being 3 races, pick 4's 4 races, etc... How to bet them?? Well, theres lot of theories & opinions on how to, but in my opinion, when i bet them, im trying to beat the favorites in every race if possible to add value & equity to my ticket. Also, i always single a horse in 1 of the races to cut costs& its important to have an opinion & draw ur line in the sand in 1 of those races. But ur question " How to bet them" ?is pretty broad. What exactly do u need help or insight with?

is twin spires the only legal site for illinois residents?

No, u can bet tvg, xpressbet as well im pretty sure. Twinspires & xpress are 2 best imo. Xpressbet has best bonus in the industry by far. Simply open an accnt w/them & deposit via check for $100, then if u wager $100 within 30days, ul receive $125 the next day after completing ur $100 in wagers.

what are the differences in sites twinspires tvg and xpressbet. who offers more and are certain tracks excluded from some sites

Thanks for the post. Yea I just like to bet a few times a year and want to try to do better when I go. Honestly I hate the fact that the track takes out 80% from payout. It seems like if they took a lot less (maybe 1-5%), it would be much easier to beat horse racing because I have noticed a lot of people bet horses due to color of silks or the name of the horse (lol).

How could we do a 2+2 handicapping contest? Somethin cheap & easy, but still fun for our thread?? Any ideas?

Contest along the lines of:

$1000 play money, 1 week timeframe. All $1000 must be played thru to be eligible. Obviously parlaying winnings is ok. Im open to any track anywhere in the world with legal para mutual wagering laws. Quarter Horses allowed too. Hell, harneys if you like them as well.

Only Track style bets allowed for easy book keeping, any Track bet is legal, p3,p4, p5, p6's, trifectas ok if it's a Track bet.

This would be too much work for a single auditor, so some type of honor system posting the wagers themselves, and your own running balance.

ATNS, what about this?

https://www.fantasycapping.com/

Never looked at it before or dove in, but seems like what we'd be looking for.

I'd be down if our entry fee was $100 or less.

Yea, i think $50 or $100 /person entry fee would b suitable. I was thinking a good format would be a 10 race format involving Saratoga & Del Mar on a Saturday or Sunday. We would have 4 mandatory races at Saratoga that each player would b required to make a $2WP wager on & 4 mandatory races at Del Mar to do the same. Then each player will have 2 races that he or she can choose from @ saratoga & del mar that arent 1 of the mandatory races. So in all, each player will make $40 worth of $2WP wagers spread over 10 races, with 8 of those races being mandatory races for each player & the other 2 races being the players decision(as long as its at saratoga or delmar & not one of the mandatory races). Also, u must make a $2WP wager only. Betting $4win or $4 place is not allowed.
Does that sound fair? Any1 forsee issues with this format or not agree with it? Ty

Sounds good to me, I'm in.

Spot Play Evangeline Downs Race4.

$60 WIN #7

.50c pick 3 x's 4
7
2,5,7,8,10
3,4,5
$30

$3 Pick3
7
10
3,4,5
$9
Total $99