HORSE RACING THREAD

[Kevroc]

To stop forum clutter, I'd like to keep all picks, tickets, comments etc.. regarding horse racing to this one thread.

Today, Sunday March 29th, Santa Anita has a $137k carryover in the Super High Five.. which is a wager consisting of choosing the exact order of finish for the first five to cross the wire.

I have handicapped the race and assigned my selections as A B or C picks.

A: 2-10-12
B: 5-8
C: 4-7-9

Next, I have constructed the following $1 combinations...

A-A-A-B-B
A-A-A-B-C
A-A-A-C-B
A-A-B-B-A
A-A-B-A-B
A-B-B-A-A
A-B-A-B-A
A-B-A-A-B
A-A-A-4-C
A-A-A-7-C
8-A-A-A-5

That is 198 combinations at $1 each, for a total wager of $198.

I hit this wager back in January for $6k.. I do not play it often but, when the carryover reaches six digits, you gotta go for it, imo.

Good Luck Everyone!

[M.Honcho]

Good idea Kev,i will put my capped card selections here,i will just date them when i post them,for example; Sun 2/29/09 Santa Anita....Good luck on the Hi5.

[Kevroc]

With the scratch of the #2, the matrix should now read..

A: 8,10,12
B: 4,5
C: 1,7,9

[CrazyLond]

Weird this was posted today as I was just about to ask about horse racing. My friend in Vegas was talking to some old guys who seemed convinced it was beatable and I guess they sold him on it, outlining some seemingly simple strategy for him. Can this be a +EV thing to gamble on? If so, are there any good resources for a beginner to use to get started?

[Kevroc]

Never would have choose the 6 in a million years and he got second.

Boom goes the dynamite.

The favorite didnt even hit the top5!!!

The bet paid over 20k.

WOW

[M.Honcho]

Originally Posted by CrazyLond

Weird this was posted today as I was just about to ask about horse racing. My friend in Vegas was talking to some old guys who seemed convinced it was beatable and I guess they sold him on it, outlining some seemingly simple strategy for him. Can this be a +EV thing to gamble on? If so, are there any good resources for a beginner to use to get started?

Kevroc could help you out on your resources question better than myself. As for the +EV question,absolutely! Just like anything else,if your commited,disciplined,and learn from your mistakes,you have a chance.

What was your profit for the day Kev? Just kidding,lol. About as much as my Dunkirk,huh? I sure could pick the place horses yesterday.

[Kevroc]

Originally Posted by CrazyLond

Weird this was posted today as I was just about to ask about horse racing. My friend in Vegas was talking to some old guys who seemed convinced it was beatable and I guess they sold him on it, outlining some seemingly simple strategy for him. Can this be a +EV thing to gamble on? If so, are there any good resources for a beginner to use to get started?

I tend to believe that the game is beatable (I say "tend" because while I have booked winning seasons in four of the last five years.. the sample is still too small, imo) but, it is a long term endeavor that may take awhile to bear fruit. The money comes from windfalls. I do not believe the bettor that plays everyday is going to beat this game long term.

I believe you must pick and choose your spots. It is the quality of the wagers, not the quantity of them. The takeout in our game is very large and difficult to overcome.

Personally, I watch just about everyday and only wager in the large pick four pools from California (if i have opinions) and when the pick six carryover pools reach over 100k (the dead money, causes extreme value here.. example: I hit a pick six in 2006 that paid $61k that if you played a parlay involving those six winners.. it would have totalled around $12k!!)

For handicapping, I recommend all Andy Beyer's books and for wagering strat, I strongly recommend Steve Crist's "Exotic Betting".

Originally Posted by M.Honcho

What was your profit for the day Kev? Just kidding,lol. About as much as my Dunkirk,huh? I sure could pick the place horses yesterday.

LOL, got excited for a second when Chantel's 13:1 bomb got a head in front at the top of the stretch but, my other main runners did not run a lick and I missed this one by a mile... A TURF MILE at that!!

[Bishop22]

I've made a living off and on for 3 years and none of my profits are from windfalls. Rebated ROI around 10%, win bets only over a 3K sample. There has been more off than on though because the time investment is enormous (and because poker is easier). There are a select few that can make money betting daily win bets / exactas using PPs only (as a computer capper I only believe in their existence because I know one of them). The vast majority of people making any money at horse racing are using custom software. The widely used software programs (e.g. HTR) tend to evaporate the typical inefficiencies before much money can be made.

[Kevroc]

Ah yes, I forget we live in the times of bonuses and rebates.

Bishop is a long time poster and much respected, so I believe it when he says he has beaten the game as a daily player.

I contest that this is the minority of winners but, fact is that it can be done.

As for the programmers scalping exacta pools and such, that is another discussion.. I think OP was talking about your regular handicapper.

Kudos Bishop for being able to pull it off.. the takeout is a beast to overcome.

+EV situations DO EXIST in our game, so that is why I contest that the game can be "won" when you get down to it.

[TripleH68]

Two questions for you:

1) Has Larry Jones lost his mind training Friesan Fire up to the Derby? I love this horse and am trying to keep an open mind. (I already have $$ on him in the futures!)

2) Anybody here ever run a syndicate? I am selling $25 shares to friends and family and will likely have anywhere from 40-80 shares to play with in the Derby. Any advice would be nice.

At this point my biggest concern will be hitting a big signer and dealing with tax troubles...

[Kevroc]

I've never run a syndicate per se but, I've had up to six partners at a time on big p6 carryovers where we would go like 500 each and make 3k worth of tickets.

[TripleH68]

Originally Posted by Kevroc

I've never run a syndicate per se but, I've had up to six partners at a time on big p6 carryovers where we would go like 500 each and make 3k worth of tickets.

That sounds like fun. What was your agreement for taxes should you have hit for say $100,000?

I have never known enough horseplayers willing to pool money. LOL. We are always disagreeing about one horse or another.

[Kevroc]

Originally Posted by TripleH68

That sounds like fun. What was your agreement for taxes should you have hit for say $100,000?

I have never known enough horseplayers willing to pool money. LOL. We are always disagreeing about one horse or another.

One guy was senior citizen.

I was the 'capper, they were the backers.

I cave under pressure apparently, as we only had 5 of 6 like a gazillion times.

FML

[M.Honcho]

Originally Posted by TripleH68

Two questions for you:

1) Has Larry Jones lost his mind training Friesan Fire up to the Derby? I love this horse and am trying to keep an open mind. (I already have $$ on him in the futures!)

2) Anybody here ever run a syndicate? I am selling $25 shares to friends and family and will likely have anywhere from 40-80 shares to play with in the Derby. Any advice would be nice.

At this point my biggest concern will be hitting a big signer and dealing with tax troubles...

My answer to part 1 is,no way. FF is a beast,and LJ is great trainer and knows his horse better than anyone else. I also have him for $200 in the future at 7/1. Interested in I Want Revenge performance this weekend in the Wood also.

Part2, I guess thats a personal preference,like Kev says you certainly can make a larger ticket when it comes to Pick 6's,but man you have to trust who your dealing with and the questions about taxes etc better be answered and agreed upon before hand.

[Jokerz24]

Can't you assign the winnings to a group of people and each person has their own tax form. Most likely the same deal when groups of employees win the lottery.