Now pdiggz i am no Copernicus i am more of an English major spelling champ type but you missed a few races unless those were otb and that can not be right? Been doing that a little myself of late finding myself behind in the count and protecting the plate. 7/130 past weekend in that weird set up i mention few post back and think 6/104 this weekends tournament. Never saw a race kid stopped in and took me to a farmers market and being a vegan and never finding this damn place shows how thick i am no doubt but hooked up with some Jar Head salsa and chips and i never eat anything different that was insane good if anyone's interested and 10% proceeds to VFW per ex Marine owner OORAH!

daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.

Wasn't that Illinois Derby somethin Toughest under 2 week wait next to BC time for me

daonna i read your and dundalk write ups and that is how my brain sees american racing BUT we are only allowed tote i know i preached so damn long and hard early on about exchange wagering and such i just ran out of air on the subject. Jersey and their what is 15.5% commish i mean thanks man.


Maybe u can clear something up for me.

I understand most of the viewers here are USA based, and exchangeless.

During the Masters, I looked at this forum, and there were a lot of things wanted, that were arbable with exchanges.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56...index1084.html

Never having been part of this scene, when I offered to lay bits and prices, I got into an exchange with someone, and was briefly called a 'maybe' scammer. This hurt .. but, it may be, I mis-understood the thread .. its pages and pages, and I didnt read much of it .. thinking, it was people who wanted .. for example .. Rose at 5/1, when he was 6.8 on an exchange.

As I pay premium charge .. churn .. is good for my account, so, offered to lay etc, and post escrow .. which, .. I must admit, I was amazed to be called a scammer for.

Anyway .. if anyone knows, what it the purpose of that thread, can u plse either post or DM me ..Thx.

Daonna .. nice 1st winner ..

It was entered in the Prix Denesy at Saint Cloud on Saturday .. dont know how it ran.

Honcho those were my last wps type bets not counting doubles P3 etc. 1 win in 23 with 18 2nd/3rds. Been a comical run. Mostly wp so I've recovered some with all the 2nds but still a lot of Murphy s law

LoneStar double

R1: 5
R2: 3-5-8

If 5 loses in R1 you might see him at one of your kids friends birthdays this summer. In R2 I'm fading the #1 because of the distance of the race and adding in 5 because of it.

gl today. Lot of good sports action going on

SA scratched Thursday. Guess nobody is in the mood to claim 6k horses for 25.

lol #1 takes it. Fade me all day at the windows

oof

When B.Fair was given the green light in NJ I was (maybe naively) optimistic that US horse bettors would embrace exchange betting but I didn't know BF are charging a commission of 15%. If so they aren't helping its growth at all. It's hard to find any info on the current state of BF.NJ. A few articles from Ap/May last year but not much since. There's a culture barrier preventing exchange betting becoming popular in the US for the recreational (besides the politics and track monopolies) but any professional bettor can see the benefits.
It might take a Phil Galfond type of entrepreneur to start something more player friendly and take it out of the hands of corporations like Paddy Power. There's a Bitcoin exchange sporstbook (that I believe also struggles with liquidity) but nothing for racing that doesn't require the use of proxy servers afaik.

dundalk that thread seems like a handy way to publicly record bets between acquaintances.

I never feel sorry for bf anymore, but can see the US exchange
has many uphill battles.

The Comm rate, makes sense, if u compare to local pool
deductions. The exchange bettor should still b better off.

In running liquidity on the racing is v slowly growing.

There are 4 cricket games scheduled for Aug, near one
of them, and I might come to trade/look etc.

Papa Mandela gonna get an Oaks with P-Woods? Dang she crushed last out.
Any update on the withholding reform going into effect thought around this time was supposed to be in effect?

Punchestown (IRE) 16:20
Labaik
need: 2.17 (46%)
available: 4.30 (BF exchange @ 13:40 UTC), (11/4, 3.75, +275 generally)
stake: 7.4% (Kelly * 0.25)

The value is there due to Labaik's history of RR's (refusals). He has 5 of them. The price collapses if he starts cleanly. I'm taking the risk at this price.

I was set to back Art Of Security in the Killashee today (16:55) but Noel Meade in his wisdom runs him over a longer trip later in the week. There are only 11 runners in this year's Killashee. Weird considering 20+ is the norm (average 22.6 over 14 years)

Thanks for the advice. I signed up with xpressbet. Multiview interface is pretty easy to use and have had a few winning bets already. Looking forward to the triple crown.

Punchestown (IRE) 16:20
Labaik
need: 2.17 (46%)
available: 4.30 (BF exchange @ 13:40 UTC), (11/4, 3.75, +275 generally)
stake: 7.4% (Kelly * 0.25)

The value is there due to Labaik's history of RR's (refusals). He has 5 of them. The price collapses if he starts cleanly. I'm taking the risk at this price.

Sorry, I never saw this, as I would have disuaded you.

It jumped off at Cheltenham (Uk), as the starter uses a different whip type, to encourage horses to start. For me, it will never start in Ireland, and needs to be sold to a Uk based stable.

Its really hard to tip horses, and its easy after, to find holes. Total respect for all tipsters in the thread .. win or lose, its a thankless pursuit.

Good info dundalk, cheers. I'd heard from an unreliable source that they'd figured a certain piece of tack they were using prior to Cheltenham was causing the issues but your theory looks more likely after yesterday. I went with the available odds v mine knowing the risks and tbh I probably would've stuck with the bet even had you posted the whip info.
Yeah tipping horses can be rough. You think you have a profitable angle and decide to share, and that's about when things turn for the worse. The ones I'm putting here as overlays are all circa 50% chances in my own markets. They should generally start shorter than the openers at least so there could be trading opportunities (although today Robinhannon has drifted half a point since I last checked). They come from a method that has been profitable in the past, but markets adjust and who knows how they perform going forward. Strike rate should still be decent, but whether it stays ahead of SP is problematical. There are two today.

Perth 15:05.
Robbinhannon
need: 1.92 (52%).
available: 4.00 (BF exchange @09:40 UTC)
stake: 9% (Kelly *0.25)

Perth 17:10
Great Fighter
need: 1.96 (51%).
available: 3.25 (BF exchange @09:40 UTC)
stake: 6.66% (Kelly * 0.25)

(Robbinhannon now 4.50 @12:00 UTC)

Punchestown 18:40
Great Field
need: 1.61 (62%)
available: 2.28 (BF exchange @19:10 UTC) (2.25, 5/4 available various books)
stake: 7.9% (Kelly *0.25)

Wednesday's 2 shortened (3/1 into SP 11/4, & 2/1 into SP 11/8). Robbinhannon traded @1.25 in the run, finished 2nd, ground possibly too firm, Great Fighter won.


I've been waiting for Art Of Security in a Handicap. Runs tomorrow (18:05 Punchestown). Early odds 33/1, (42.00 BF for a few quid).
I don't know about the horse over 3 miles. Never really been a fan of High Chapparals over longer trips but occasionally he can throw one that can stay (Hadrian's Approach comes to mind). Noel Meade might have been swayed by AOS's half brother winning at Aintree a couple of weeks ago when stepped up, but Rather Be's by Oscar. Anyway I think AOS has the class to match it here, and I have to trust that Meade knows best whether he'll stay or not. 33/1 or better should be widely available. It's a speculative bet for sh.ts & giggles only in a 28 runner field (e/w 5 places)

28 horse field lol. Most races this wk seem to be 5-7 or so. Every winner odds on

Solid choice blah they have a nice Beat The Host contest first part of every year and the HD to most tracks there is nice.

Did not look anywhere yesterday and trying not to because it is time i go in my bubble till the Derby. I know what i know have have my own opinions and do not want to hear what the voices in somebody else's head is telling them I just have my ear to the ground on facts not opinion which can be its own adventure. I do not know why but if PJ draws #6 or#9 hole i think he wins and have no idea why that is in my head.

This also popped in my head and made itself known but us here are the crew known as "2 dollars lighter 2 minutes later" (see what i did there ).

Taking applications for Derby Wife for next week and ladies do not be shy or make me make impossible decisions and consider yourself all invited we will work out a rotation

Got the fever fellas

Is there a place to get free past performance information?

Not that I know. If it's just the KY derby your interested in check twitter. Twin Spires put up a free Bros for the Oaks and Derby on their feed. Otherwise go to DRF brisnet timeform and choose what suits you. They can be bought or earned free through betting sites.

I'll refrain from posting self indulgent rubbish on this thread from here on. It helps nowt. I'll mention a couple things now to tie it up but from here on I'll endeavour to keep to the objective overlays.
AOS was never going to win that race. He's a 2 miler and will be well handicapped over that trip.
Keep an eye on Shaun Harris runners on a "back-to-lay" basis and vice versa. What he did with Fujin yesterday. His 2 last Saturday.

Looking forward to some good insight on the run to the roses.
Hoping Death Duty wins today but that's the last hint of subjective tipping from thee

What a great KY Derby this is!

Kinda like having an ugly kid...you love them but just not as much as the others

I choose to make lemonade out of all this AND probably buying a 20 horse field in my late PK4 play (makes for cheap tickets)

Going to cap CHD opening day and throw up 3 to fade later in day a 6pm est first post should hit everyone good.

Thought i would add this as i just saw it posted up today under prizes....Note regarding ties and tokens.....Our system is incorrectly awarding token prizes to all tied players for the full amount above the schedule prize distribution. Manual adjustments may be made if you tied for a token beyond the token distribution.

Too damn funny...Knew i found a glitch there and maybe should of kept my mouth shut before explaining it to everyone a couple weeks back huh

The only thing that could make this Derby better is Classic Empire drawing the #1 post. Every horse in here is not without chance to win.